The S&P closed at yet another all-time high in a volatile trading session, Markets were flat in the early afternoon. Initial Jobless Claims fell from the week before and beat estimates but remained above 1 million. Continuing claims, which represent those that have filed for Unemployment for at least two weeks, were 14.5 million versus the expectation for 14.3 million and a revised 14.7 million in the week prior. Markets moved higher during Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech. Powell announced that the Fed has made changes to its long-term monetary policy goals. Now, it will wait for inflation to run hot for a period of time to an average of 2% before it tightens its policy. That means it will do more from a policy perspective to try and stoke inflation for the foreseeable future. In terms of economic data, Existing Home Sales jumped again in July, signalling continued strength in the housing market. Senate Republicans are reportedly preparing a new stimulus proposal. And leaders from both sides could soon be back at the table. In contrast, European Markets closed lower following a warning from Europe’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control that Coronavirus cases will rise again this winter, but also said that they are hopeful that deaths will not spike. Germany cancelled plans to discuss Brexit at a gathering of European Union ambassadors next week due to a lack of negotiating progress. Germany was reportedly considering extending its ban on major events until the end of the year. French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the country will quickly distribute $118 billion to support businesses, adding that the funds will support a sustainable economic recovery. Spanish Economic Minister Nadia Calvino said recent data has shown an economic rebound is underway. Overnight, reports from Japan that Prime Minister Abe is to retire for health reasons saw the Nikkei close lower by 1.4%.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 455 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2381 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 3484, another new all-time high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 161 points for a 0.57% gain to close at 28,492.
The NASDAQ 100 fell 0.36%, closing at a price of 11,926.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.6%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
The Nikkei closed 1.41% lower at 22,882.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index again closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1842.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at $1.3215.
The Japanese Yen closed flat at 106.02 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed ten basis points higher at 0.78%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at -0.39%.
Britain’s 10-year yield also closed three basis points higher at 0.33%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 0.2%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 0.7% lower as investors wait to see if there is any damage from Hurricane Laura at $42.75 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% lower at $1,922.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which fell 1.8 versus +1 expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, Business Climate and Economic Sentiment Indicator. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Personal Income/Spending, Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories. Finally, we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 3.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P saw plenty of two-way volatility yesterday. My plan worked well with the market hitting my 3490 sell level before selling off to my 3480 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell again at 3491 before the S&P spiked to an intra-day low at 3465, thus hitting my second 3480 T/P level and I am still flat. The S&P rallied into the close and that rally has continued overnight to sit at 3505 as I go to press. Incredibly the VIX closed another 5% higher at 24.47, adding to the number of divergences in the market, although the McClellan Oscillator did improve to close at -87. Tops in markets are a process and takes time. In my opinion the recent price action suggests this is the case with the S&P now severely overbought after only one down day in all of August so far. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed at 76 last night which is a reading of ‘’Extreme Greed’’. The S&P has further resistance from 3510/3525 where I will be a seller with a 3538 stop. I am not going to chase the S&P higher and I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 3430/3445 with the same 3417 stop.
EUR/USD
Rising Bond Yields led to a dramatic up and down move in the Euro yesterday. Shortly after Fed Chairman Powell’s speech was released the Euro spiked to a high of 1.1900 before falling 140 points. Just when it looked like we may get a significant downside Key Day Reversal, the Euro reversed course and is back trading at 1.1880 this morning. My Euro plan worked well with the market hitting my 1.1880 sell level before hitting my 1.1835 T/P level. Unfortunately, the Euro stopped shy of my 1.1750 buy level and I am still flat. The Euro has resistance from 1.1930/1.1970 where I will be a seller with a 1.2015 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1745/1.1795 with a 1.1705 stop.
September Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market selling off to my 92.60 buy level before rallying to my 93.00 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The Dollar has strong support from 91.70/92.20 where I will be a buyer with a 91.35 stop.
September DAX
Shortly after I posted the DAX traded lower to my 13145 T/P level on my 13210 short position and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is selling off as I go to press, trading at 13090. The DAX has strong support from 12880/12980 where I will be a buyer with a 12815 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
September FTSE
The FTSE continues to struggle as the market cannot rally even though the US and European Markets were strong all-week. Late yesterday I was finally stopped out of my 6055 long position near the low of the day at 5985 and I am still flat. With the UK Markets closed on Monday for the August Bank Holiday, my only interest in buying the FTSE is on a further dip lower to 5880/5930 with a 5835 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 5982.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully we had no sell levels in the Dow yesterday as the market played some catchup with the other main Indices. Higher Bond Yields saw the Financials outperform and lead the Dow higher. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 28100/28300 with a higher 27945 stop.
September NASDAQ
No Change as I am still short the market at an average rate of 11825 with the same 12065 stop. The NASDAQ made a low of 11833 before rallying back above 12000 overnight. I will now raise my exit level on this position to 11875, by taking a small loss and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
The Bund traded the whole of my buy range for a now 175.55 average long position. I will leave my stop unchanged at 174.95 while lowering my exit level on this position to a small loss at 175.40. Again, if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold had a wild trading session yesterday. We saw a high at 1980 before the market fell over $70 to my 1910 buy level before rallying to my 1923 T/P level and I am still flat. With the Dollar weaker, Gold is trading higher at 1950 this morning. Today, I will again look to buy Gold from 1900/1915 with a 1889 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 26.60 buy level before rallying to my revised 26.95 T/P level and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support from 26.20/26.80 where I will be a buyer with a 25.75 stop.
Recent Comments