U.S. Equity Markets shrugged off worse-than-expected jobs data to hit new all-time highs, led again by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a gain of 0.66%. The key driver was optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine and a Stimulus Agreement. The FDA’s advisory committee met yesterday to discuss Moderna’s vaccine candidate’s Emergency Use Authorisation. The vaccine is likely to be approved (like Pfizer and BioNTech’s was last week), after the FDA said the vaccine was “highly effective.” Reports continued to suggest that Congress is approaching an agreement on stimulus, with the possibility for increased stimulus cheque size ($700 from the previous $600 proposal). The optimism outweighed weak economic data, where 885,000 people filed Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending December 12, according to the Department of Labour. This was above the prior week’s number and Wall Street’s estimate of 818,000. That marks the fourth increase in the last five weeks, sparking fears that new COVID-19 restrictions would hurt the economic recovery. European Markets closed higher for the fifth consecutive day. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told European Union lawmakers there was a path forward to achieving a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged individuals to exercise extreme caution for the upcoming holiday season and keep gatherings small. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak reportedly will extend the U.K.’s Business Loan programme as the country deals with more COVID-19 lockdowns. European Union lawmakers officially approved the bloc’s $2.2 trillion stimulus plan, after Poland and Hungary dropped their objections to the package. Elsewhere, Oil closed a further 1.21% higher on growth optimism as it looked like progress has been made on a Stimulus Bill and a COVID-19 vaccine, while Gold jumped 1.59% as a hurdle to the EU’s stimulus package was removed.
To mark my 2200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 135 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1413 points for December, having finished November with a gain of 2025 points, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.58% higher at a price of 3722.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 149 points higher for a 0.49% gain at a price of 30,303.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.66% higher at a price of 12,752.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 26,763.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.2255.
The British Pound rose 0.5% to close at $1.3550.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 103.28 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.57%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis point lower at 0.27%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 0.91%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.21% higher at $47.39 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.59% higher at $1,888.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI which printed +0.2% versus +0.1% expected and UK Retail Sales which fell 3.8% versus -4.2% expected. At 9.00 am we have the German IFO Business Climate and Current Assessment, followed by Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.05 am. Next, we have the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin at 12.00 pm. Finally, at 1.30 pm we have the U.S Current Account.
March S&P 500
My 3714 short S&P position worked well with the market finally trading lower to my 3703 T/P level and I am now flat. Today is Quarterly Expiration where the US December Futures Contracts expire at 2.35 pm London Time. As the Options Contracts do not expire until just before the close at 9.00 pm these Expiration Days can be tricky to trade with plenty of intra-day movements. Given how overbought the S&P is trading I am now looking for some sort of retracement of the 500 Handle move higher since the October 30 low at 3210. Today, my sell level for the March Contract will be from 3715/3731 with a 3745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a small buyer from 3667/3682 with the same 3653 tight stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and today I will again raise my buy level to 1.2100/1.2160 with a 1.2045 stop. As I am still long the Dollar Index I will now raise my sell level slightly to 1.2295/1.2355 with a wider 1.2405 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 90.05 with the same 89.45 stop. This morning the Dollar is trading at 89.80. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 90.30 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March DAX
After the DAX just missed my 13745 stop level with a morning high at 13720 we saw a small sell-off. This move lower enabled me to exit my 13660 short position for a breakeven and I am now flat. For those of you who did stay short overnight, the DAX is trading slightly lower at 13625 and I would exit any short position ahead of the December Contract which expires later this morning. Today, I will be a small seller from 13700/13780 with a 13855 stop. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I no longer want to be a buyer of the market at this time. It has just been announced that Germany has recorded a record number of COVID 19 cases at 33,777.
March FTSE
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 6540/6600 with a lower 6655 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 6505.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow is still lagging both the S&P and NASDAQ despite trading near all-time highs. I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 30400/30600 with the same 30755 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ missed my initial 12775 sell level by 15 points before having a small sell-off and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 12805/12885 with a 12955 tight stop. The NASDAQ has strong support from 12510/12590 where I will be a buyer with a wider 12395 stop.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 177.90 sell level before trading lower to my revised 177.65 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a small seller from 178.05/178.45 with a 178.81 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market missed my 1895 initial sell level with a 1891 print before having a small sell-off into the close. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 1908/1921 with a 1933 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1899.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 24.60/25.20 with the same 23.95 stop.
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