Despite a much stronger than expected Weekly Jobless Claims, both the Dow and S&P closed lower. Weekly Jobless Claims fell below 1 million for the first time since March. Continuing Claims, which represent those that have filed for Unemployment for at least two weeks, fell from the week before and beat estimates. But the lack of stimulus still weighed on sentiment. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there may be no Coronavirus-stimulus compromise to reach between Republicans and Democrats. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stated the two sides remain far apart, describing the differences as a “chasm.” In Europe, French Unemployment data for the second quarter was better than expected, indicating the worst of the Coronavirus-driven economic downturn is behind the country. The U.K.’s chief Brexit negotiator said he’s hopeful a trade deal with the European Union can be reached next month. The International Energy Agency lowered its demand outlook for crude oil on easing use of jet fuel, marking the first downward revision since April. Germany’s IFO Institute said domestic businesses should return to normal in 11 months. Elsewhere, Oil fel 0.82%, while Gold rallied 1% after a volatile trading sessions as the market looks to stabilse after the losses from earlier in the week.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 143 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1537 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.2% lower at a price of 3373.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 80 points for a 0.30% loss to close at 27,896.
The NASDAQ rose 0.2%, closing at 11,178.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.5%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%.
This morning the Nikkei is closed 0.17% higher at 23,289.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.2%.
The Euro closed rose 0.1% to close at $1.180.
The British Pound closed flat at $1.3072.
The Japanese Yen closed flat at 106.90 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed unchanged at 0.71%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.24%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate fell 0.86% to $41.79 a barrel.
Gold rose 1% to close at $1,955.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone GDP, Employment Change and the Trade Balance at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Retail Sales and Non-Farm Productivity. At 2.15 pm we have Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories.
September S&P 500
The S&P just missed my initial 3351 buy level before having a small rally into the close and again overnight to sit at 3377 as I go to press. Volatility has fallen dramatically over the last week, with the VIX’s downtrend continuing to close at 22.13 last night. However, internally the market is weak with the McClellan Oscillator closing at +45. Given how close we are to new all-time highs in the S&P, I would have expected the MO to be north of 200. Despite my concerns, It looks to be only a matter of time before the February all-time highs at 3390 is broken. Today I will raise my sell level to 3392/3408 with a higher 3421 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 3340/3355 with a 3329 stop.
EUR/USD
Late in the New York session, the Euro finally traded lower to my 1.1800 T/P level on yesterday morning’s 1.1830 short position and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Euro from 1.1870/1.1920 with a tight 1.1955 stop. The Euro has short-term support from 1.1710/1.1760 where I will be a small buyer with a 1.1675 stop.
September Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 92.90 buy level before rallying to my revised 93.18 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dollar from 92.50/92.90 with the same 92.15 stop.
September DAX
The DAX had its first negative close in nine trading sessions. The small 0.3% move lower was enough for the market to hit my 13000 T/P level on my 13040 latest short position and I am now flat. The DAX is severely overbought and today I will be a small seller from 13070/13170 with a 13255 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
September FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 6080/6125 with the same 6035 stop. I will now lower my sell level slightly to 6235/6275 with a lower 6315 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a narrow range yesterday with the market having a late sell-off before reversing this move lower into the close. Given how overbought the Dow is trading I will continue to sell the rally. Today. My sell range will be from 28080/28280 with a tight 28405 stop. I am not going to chase the Dow higher and I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 27100/27300 with the same 26950 stop.
September NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 11235 sell level before selling off to my revised 11190 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NASDAQ is trading at 11230. We have resistance from 11270/11370 where I will be a seller with a 11455 stop. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 10790/10890 with the same 10735 tight stop.
September BUND
This week has seen the largest move lower for the Bund in over two months with the Yield moving from -55 basis points to sit at -40 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 176.25/176.75 with a 177.15 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am reluctant to chase the Gold price higher given the volatility over the past week. Everyone I talk to is long Gold and this worries me. For this reason I will leave my 1862/1882 buy level unchanged with the same 1847 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver had a strong rally after I posted yesterday morning and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 25.00/25.60 with a 24.10 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.10.
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