COVID-19 trends spooked Equity Markets, which finished the day lower, led by the Dow closing with a loss of 1.08% on what turned out to be another volatile trading session. U.S. case trends continued to hit record highs, bringing concerns that U.S individual States would soon reimpose stricter measures to stop the spread of the virus. In terms of economic data, Jobless Claims fell from last week and beat estimates. They also hit the lowest level since spiking in March. Continuing Claims, which represent those that have filed for Unemployment for at least two weeks, were 6.78 million, versus the expectation for 6.82 million and a revised 7.2 million in the week prior. But there are worries that rising cases (and the restrictions that come with them) could hurt the job market’s recovery in the coming weeks. In a speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he expects more stimulus to come from both the Central Bank and the Federal Government. European Indices closed lower after Euro-Zone Industrial Production data for September came in were weaker than expected, unexpectedly declining, and indicating the economic recovery was slowing before new COVID-19 restrictions. But there were hopes of more support… German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the country could enact more stimulus measures, if necessary, to support the economy. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the ECB will continue to focus on Bond Purchases and loans to support the regional economy. Bank of Spain Chief Economist Oscar Arce said the European Central Bank must introduce additional monetary stimulus in December to avoid deflation. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.25% lower after the International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand forecast for this quarter by 1.2 million barrels per day, warning recent vaccine success does not mean a quick turnaround, while Gold rose 0.67% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2175th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 400 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1582 points for November having made 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.0% lower at a price of 3537.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 317 points lower for a 1.08% loss at a price of 29,080.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.55% lower at a price of 11,827.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.68% higher at a price of 25,520.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1805.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at $1.3117.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 105.11 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed eight basis points lower at 0.88%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.54%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points lower at 0.35%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index closed 0.6% lower.
West Texas Intermediate closed 1.25% lower at $40.94 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.67% higher at $1868 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Wholesale Prices at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone GDP, Trade Balance and Employment Change at 10.00 am. At 1.00 pm we have a speech from the Fed’s Williams, followed by U.S. PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3542 buy level shortly after the European Indices opened before rallying to my 3559 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P made a low of 3513 before rallying into the close and is currently trading at 3528 as I go to press. As long as the S&P can hold the 3490/3510 support area I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Today my buy level will be from 3488/3506 with a 3465 wider and ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1795 average long position worked well with the Euro rallying to my 1.1810 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1725/1.1765 with a 1.1685 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level again at 1.1805.
December Dollar Index
After the Dollar traded lower to my 92.75 buy level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 92.90 and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on dips and today my buy level is 92.10/92.60 with a 91.75 stop.
December DAX
My DAX plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 13085 buy level before rallying to my 13145 T/P level and I am still flat. Subsequently the DAX got hit hard, trading to a low of 12930. The DAX has support from 12730/12810 where I will be a buyer with a 12655 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12865.
December FTSE
Just before the 9.00 pm New York close, the FTSE traded lower to my 6255 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level to 6290. I will now raise my stop on this position to 6199.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow traded lower to my 29120 buy level we had a nice rally to my revised 29260 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow made a low 45 minutes before the close at 28905, before rallying into the close. We have sold off as I go press and is currently trading at 2900 as I go to press. As long as the Dow can hold the key 28650/28850 support area I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Today I will be a buyer in this area with a 28525 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December NASDAQ
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 11680/11780 with a higher and tight 11595 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11855.
December BUND
The BUND followed U.S Treasury prices higher and I am still flat as the market again just missed my buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 173.80/174.30 with a higher 173.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite Gold closing 0.67% higher yesterday I am reluctant to chase the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will leave my 1828/1843 buy level unchanged with the same 1817 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 23.10/23.70 with a higher 22.45 stop.
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