U.S. Equity Markets sold off again, finishing lower led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a loss of 2.88%, resulting in a 10.66% rise in the VIX. Interest Rate fears and weak economic data sent markets lower. Earlier, vaccine news was positive after President Joe Biden said that the country will have enough doses to vaccine all American adults by May. But rate fears took over in the morning. Remember, rising yields spark fears that it will cost more for technology companies to borrow money to fuel their growth. This is why the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index led the selling. On the economic front, ADP employment change data came in well below estimates. This falls in line with recent Federal Reserve commentary that the job market’s recovery is losing steam, making the case for prolonged accommodative policy. On stimulus, the Senate reportedly agreed to lower the eligibility to the stimulus cheques, giving the Bill a more “targeted” focus. This could bring support from more “centrist” members, but risks going against more progressive members. European Markets spent most of yesterday in positive territory before selling off into the close. The European Commission is said to have prepared a draft plan calling for a suspension of fiscal deficit rules until at least 2023, encouraging member countries to spend more. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the government should begin to relax the country’s coronavirus-related social-distancing restrictions, but it should involve mass testing. Euro-Zone Producer Price Index data for January were weaker than expected, signalling inflation may not be as much of a threat as recent thought. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 34.5 million through yesterday, with a daily average of 935,300 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.46% on reports that OPEC was leaning towards extending the existing production cuts through April to further stabilise crude markets, while Bitcoin surged 7% as President Joe Biden’s pick for the SEC chairman signalled he was open to digital currencies.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 222 points yesterday and is now ahead by 708 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.31% lower at a price of 3819.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 121 points lower for a 0.39% loss at a price of 31,270.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.88% lower at a price of 12,683.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 2.13% lower at a price of 28,930.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.2058.
The British Pound closed unchanged at $1.3955.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.5% lower at 107.19 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points lower at 0.76%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points higher at 1.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.46% higher at $59.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.15% lower at $1,707.60 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the latest Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am, followed by UK Markit Construction PMI at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro Zone Unemployment and Retail Sales at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 5.05 pm we have a speech from Fed Chairman Powell.
March S&P 500
A wild trading session for the S&P yesterday resulting in all of Monday’s gains been wiped out. After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 3862 average long position we had a small rally to 3872 enabling me to cover this position at my revised 3867 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my platinum Members to buy the S&P again at 3830 before rallying to my 3841 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P sold off in the last 15 minutes, hitting an overnight low at 3778 after news that there was a possible security threat and breach to Capitol Hill. The House of Representatives have cancelled today’s session while the Senate will continue with its agenda. This morning, the S&P has rebounded and currently sits at 3810 as I go to press. We are now trading just below the 50 Day Moving Average (3817) as we wait to see what Chairman Powell has to say on Bond Yields and the economy later this afternoon. The S&P has support from 3770/3785 where I will be a buyer with a fixed 3759 stop. The S&P has strong support from 3710/3675 where I would expect a good size buy extreme and value to materialise from this support area. Given how close we are to the 50 Day MA , I do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
After the Euro sold off to my 1.2050 buy level we had a small rally and I covered this position at my 1.2077 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer from 1.1980/1.2020 with a 1.1945 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a buyer from 90.10/90.50 with a higher 89.65 stop.
March DAX
The DAX made a new all-time high at 14190 shortly after I posted yesterday morning before spending the rest of yesterday trading sideways to lower. This morning the market traded lower to my 13920 buy level with a 13900 low print before rallying to my 13975 T/P level and I am now flat. We have support from 13810/13890 where I will again be a buyer with a 13745 stop. I do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6580 buy level earlier this morning before rallying to my 6615 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 6520/6570 where I will again be a buyer with a 6485 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the VIX closing 10.66% higher yesterday, the Dow has been most resistant to any decline. My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 31340 buy level before rallying to my 31455 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow needs to break and close over 31500 to challenge last week’s 32009 all-time high. Failure to do so risks a move lower to 30800/30950 where I will be a buyer with a 30650 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of Powell this afternoon I do not want to be short the Dow.
March NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan did not work well yesterday. After the market traded the whole of my buy level for a 13040 average long position we saw large sell-off before rebounding to 12950. Unfortunately, my ‘’Closing Stop’’ did not work yesterday and I was stopped out of this position near the close at 12750 and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has now fallen over 800 points since the high on Monday at 13328, falling to an overnight low of 12512. This is an incredible move in percentage terms in just 48 hours. The NASDAQ has strong support from 12460/12560 where I will again be a buyer with a 12350 Fixed Stop. We have resistance from 12900/13000 where I will be a small seller with a 13060 tight Fixed Stop.
June BUND
I have now rolled to the June Contract which trades at a 286 point Discount to the March Contract. The June Contract has support from 170.30/170.80 where I will be a buyer with a 169.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 171.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1701 buy level before rallying to my 1709 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has strong support from 1675/1690 where I will again be a buyer with a 1663 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 26.00 buy level before rallying to my 26.40 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer from 24.90/25.50 with a 24.35 stop.
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