U.S. Equity Markets gained on stimulus optimism, but tech was left behind, as the NASDAQ 100 closed lower by 2.92%, while the Dow closed with a gain of 0.97%. Stimulus news boosted markets. Over the weekend, the Senate approved the $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill, sending it back to the House for a final vote, with the expectation that the White House will sign it by March 14. There was also optimism that this round of Stimulus Cheques could be distributed within days of the president’s signature, given that two rounds of payments have already been sent out. There was also positive reopening news, after the CDC said that vaccinated Americans can meet indoors without masks and social distancing. This boosts hopes of a return to “normal.” But the gains were not enjoyed by all… Tech shares continued to underperform heavily as investors rotate into value sectors. The ongoing concerns over rising bond yields weighed on this space because it could mean that borrowing costs are going up. Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet day – no Federal Reserve commentary (media blackout period) or notable economic data. European Markets closed mixed. Investors await the European Central Bank’s policy update later this week for more detail on recent statements that it would increase bond purchases to keep interest rates low. Euro-Zone Investor Confidence data for March were stronger than expected, as optimism about the outlook continues to improve. Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi Arabian port housing its largest oil refinery, stoking concerns that global supply could be hampered, although no disruptions were reported. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 40.4 million through yesterday, with a daily average of 1.1 million doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.09% as investors digested news of an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil refinery, while Gold closed 1.23% lower of further Dollar strength.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 308 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1429 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% lower at a price of 3821.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher for a 0.97% gain at a price of 31,802.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.92% lower at a price of 12,299.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.99% higher at a price of 29,027.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher.
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.1850.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at $1.3810.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% lower at 108.81 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.75%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.57%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.09% lower at $63.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.23% lower at $1,679.60 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone GDP and Employment Change at 10.00 am. This is followed at 11.00 am by U.S NFIB Business Optimism Index. Finally, we have a three year Note Auction at 6.00 pm.
March S&P 500
Plenty of two-way price action between both the Dow and Nasdaq with the S&P caught in the middle. Shortly after I posted the S&P traded lower to my 3801 buy level with a 3796 low print before surging to my sell level at 3868. Subsequently we sold off over 50 handles from the afternoon high into the close as the NASDAQ led the decline with a near 3% plunge. For the record, I covered my long S&P position at 3810 and my short position at 3858 and I am still flat. The S&P has strong support from 3800/3818 where I will be a buyer with a 3789 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance at yesterday’s high and as a result I will be a small seller from 3871/3886 with a 3901 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
After the Euro traded lower to my 1.1860 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1.1878 and I am still flat. Today, I will be a buyer from 1.1800/1.1850 with a 1.1745 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1895.
June Dollar Index
Overnight the Dollar traded higher to my 92.45 sell level. I will add to this trade at 92.95 with the same 93.31 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 92.15 T/P level unchanged.
March DAX
Thankfully, we had no sell level in the DAX as the market surged 2% to close at a new all-time high above 14400. The DAX is severely overbought and due a correction. We have resistance from 14480/14560 where I will be a small seller with a tight 14615 stop. Despite yesterday’s positive close, I do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
Late yesterday, the FTSE rallied to my 6710 sell level before trading lower to my 6690 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 6735/6785 with a 6825 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
A large non-confirmation exits between the NASDAQ, which closed at three month lows and the Dow which pushed to a new all-time high yesterday after rallying over 750 points from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. This diversion increases the odds that the stock market is in the final stages of this incredible bull market. The Dow rallied to a new intra-day high at 32148, but not a new closing high, which was on February 24. A full 25.64% of the Index’s move yesterday was due to one stock, The Walt Disney Company, which gapped to a new high. The Dow has support from 31650/31800 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 31545 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
March NASDAQ
An incredible 400 point sell-off from yesterday’s 12715 afternoon high saw the NASDAQ hit my 12340 buy level shortly before the close. Subsequently we rallied overnight to my 12420 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has support from 12080/12200 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 11975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how oversold the NASDAQ is trading I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
June BUND
No Change as I am still a buyer from 170.10/170.60 with the same 169.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold missed my 1675 buy level with a 1676 low print before rallying to sit at 1695 this morning. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1662/1677 while leaving my 1649 stop unchanged.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 24.30/24.90 with a higher 23.85 stop.
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