Equity Markets closed lower in volatile trading as investors debated whether the spread of the Coronavirus may be slowing in several major economies. Oil sank and bonds retreated. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.2% after surging as much as 3.5%. The benchmark briefly met the time-honored definition for the start of a bull market after climbing 20% from its March 23 low. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced after the rate of new infections slowed in France and in Italy, the original epicentre of the continent’s outbreak. New York’s rate of new Coronavirus infections tapered for a third straight day, stoking optimism that the pandemic may finally be approaching a peak in the state where it has hit hardest. Oil sank to the weakest level since the start of the month as investors weighed whether the world’s biggest producers will be able to strike a deal that cuts enough output to offset an unprecedented demand loss from the Coronavirus outbreak. Elsewhere, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose more than 2% after adding nearly 3% a day earlier. Chinese stocks climbed and the Yuan strengthened in the wake of further targeted stimulus by policy makers as Shanghai reopened after a long weekend. China said it didn’t have any new deaths for the first time since the pandemic emerged.
To mark my 2050th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 383 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1516 points for April, having made an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January, 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September and 2387 points in August Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index declined 0.2%, closing at a price of 2659.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%, closing at a price of 22,653.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased by 1.0%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 2.0%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 1.0% to 1,255.
The Euro rose 1.1% to $1.0897.
The British Pound rose 1.1% to $1.2344.
The Japanese Yen strengthened 0.2% to 108.76 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 0.72%.
Germany’s 10-year yield increased twelve basis points to -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield increased eight basis points to 0.42%.
Commodities
Gold weakened 0.3% to $1,653.70 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 7.5% to $24.13 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no Euro-Zone or UK data of note today. At 12.00 pm we have the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the FOMC Minutes from the March Meeting.
June S&P 500
Phase 2 of my S&P road map ran into a brick wall at the 2750 key pivot point with a high of 2749. This level was tested twice before the S&P got slammed into the close, falling 100 Handles. Internally the market was strong with the McClellan Oscillator closing higher at +173, while the VIX only rose 3% despite the incredible two-way price action all-day. The S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 2728 average short position before the market traded lower to my too tight 2720 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Overnight the S&P did trade below my initial 2630 buy level before rallying to a high of 2680. I did not do this trade my self as I wanted to be flat after an exhausting trading session yesterday in which I did close to 50 trades myself. If you did buy in my range then you are sitting on a nice gain this morning. There is still the possibility that the S&P can rally as high as 2770/2810 in this Phase 2 recovery before the Phase 3 sell-off begins. My ultimate target for the S&P is still 1900/2100. The S&P has strong support from 2580/2610 where I will be a buyer with a 2565 stop. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally to 2740/2760 with a 2775 stop.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly the Euro missed my initial 1.0930 sell level with a 1.0926 high before selling off 70 points this morning. Today I will lower my sell level to 1.0915/1.0965 with a 1.1005 stop. My only interest in buying the Euro is still on a dip lower to 1.0610/1.0670 with the same 1.0555 stop.
June Dollar Index
It took time, but finally the Dollar rallied to my 100.50 T/P level on yesterday’s 100.10 long position and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dollar from 99.50/100.10 with a 99.05 stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 10240 buy level before rallying to my revised 10300 T/P level and I am now flat. As long as the DAX can hold the 10020/10150 support area then the DAX will be a small buy on dips. Today I will be a buyer in this area with a tight 9945 stop.
March FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market missed my sell range before selling off into the close. Today I will lower my sell level to 5750/5830 with a lower 5895 stop. The FTSE has short-term support from 5490/5560 where I will be a buyer with a 5435 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 23530 sell level before selling off to my 23380 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Incredibly the Dow sold off to my 22600 buy level just before the close with a 22365 overnight low before rallying 600 points. As we have had a tough couple of days I wanted to hold on to yesterday’s points gain and I emailed my Platinum Members that I had cancelled both my Dow and S&P buy levels. If you did take the trade then you had a nice gain this morning which you should take. As long as the Dow can hold key support from 21500/22000 then there is every chance that we can still see the Dow rally back to 24500/25000 and possibly higher before Phase 2 ends. Remember I still have a target level in the Dow at 17500 which should be seen after Phase 3 begins. Today I will be a buyer from 21950/22200 with a 21795 stop. I will be a small seller from 23350/25550 with a 23705 stop.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 8290 sell level. Unfortunately I chickened out of this trade at my 8260 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently the NASDAQ got hit hard and is trading close to 8000 this morning. The NASDAQ has strong support from 7650/7780 where I will be a buyer with a 7565 stop. My only interest in selling the market is on a rally back to yesterday’s highs from 8250/8380 with a 8460 stop.
June BUND
The Bund continued to sell-off after I posted with the market hitting my 170.50 buy level with a 170.21 low print. As I wanted to be flat overnight I covered this position for a small gain at 170.73. Today I will be a buyer from 169.80/170.30 with a 169.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Contrary to everyone I read and speak to, my opinion is that Gold is close to putting in a top that could hold for many months. Optimism is at extreme levels and almost nobody is talking about being short. However I am afraid to be short given how expensive Gold points are with the spread betting firms and until normal conditions return I will continue to stay on the sidelines.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver fell shy of my 15.90 sell level with a 15.50 high before selling off to trade at 14.90 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 15.75/16.25 with a 16.65 stop.
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