U.S. Equity Markets fell for the third time in four days as investors braced for a longer economic shutdown that is likely to devastate corporate profits and dividends. The US Dollar rose along with Treasuries. The S&P 500 dropped the most in two weeks, with sentiment souring after U.S. officials gave sobering assessments of the pandemic’s potential impact. President Donald Trump warned of a “painful” upcoming period for the country, while New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said a model showed the Covid-19 outbreak may not peak in the state until the end of April. Italy also said Wednesday it would extend its lockdown. U.S. Equities found no relief after enduring the worst quarter since 2008 as the pandemic shut down large swaths of the economy. Losses from the S&P 500’s February record reached 34% before an unprecedented government spending plan sparked a furious three-day rally of 18%. Since then, the Index is down almost 5% as signs mount that the downturn will be longer than previously thought. Banks suffered on speculation the largest will be forced to cut dividends after European lenders including HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc halted payouts and share buybacks. The region’s Stoxx 600 Index sank, even after the European Union unveiled plans to save jobs during the crisis. The Euro extended its drop as Manufacturing data from the single-currency region painted a bleak picture, with Italy’s Purchasing Managers’ Index posting a record drop. Investors disappointed with the loss of dividend income could spark a fresh wave of selling, knowing that analysts are dashing to update earnings forecasts to take into account the looming global recession and the slump in stock prices. Elsewhere, West Texas oil fluctuated around $20 a barrel after Trump’s pledge to meet with feuding producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to support the market failed to bolster prices substantially.
To mark my 2050th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 680 points yesterday on the first trading session for April, having made an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January, 818 points in December, 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September and 2387 points in August Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index fell 4.4%, for a 114 Handle fall, closing at a price of 2470.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4.4% lower at 20,943.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 2.9%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.7%.
The Euro fell 0.7% to $1.0949.
The British Pound dropped 0.2% at $1.2393.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.4% at 107.07 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped five basis points to 0.62%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.48%.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to 0.31%.
Commodities
Gold rose 0.3% to $1,601 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% at $20.93 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone PPI at 9.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the Weekly Jobless Claims which are expected to rise to a new all-time record at 3.5 million. At 2.45 pm we have the ISM New York. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Factory Orders.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as shortly after I posted the market sold off to my 2480 buy level before rallying to my revised 2499 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again at 2478 before the market rallied to my 2493 T/P level and I am now flat. So far the S&P held the key 2445 support area with a late test before rallying overnight. The Cash S&P has left a large ‘’Open Gap’’ from yesterday afternoon’s 2518 rebound high to Tuesday’s Chicago close at 2585. This is another huge Gap and as we know all ‘’Open Gaps’’ eventually get filled. The S&P has initial resistance from 2515/2535 where I will be a small seller with a 2552 stop. The S&P has strong support from 2438/2460 where I will be a buyer with a 2422 tight stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.0930 buy level before rallying this morning to my revised 1.0950 T/P level as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today I will be a small buyer on any dip lower to 1.0860/1.0900 with a 1.0825 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.1030/1.1070 where I will be a seller with a 1.1115 stop.
June Dollar Index
Just as I posted the Dollar rallied to my 99.60 T/P level on my latest 99.10 long position and I am now flat. Today I will be a buyer from 98.50/99.10 with a 98.20 stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked very well with the market trading the whole of my buy level for a 9360 average long position, just before the New York close. This morning the DAX opened higher and I covered this position at my revised 9530 T/P level and I am now flat. For the last three weeks the DAX has traded between 9200 and 10100 and it looks like this trading will continue for now. Today I will be a buyer from 9310/9430 with a 9195 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
June FTSE
Just before the New York close the FTSE traded lower to my 5340 buy level before rallying this morning to my 5405 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will be a buyer from 5270/5350 with a 5215 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow Jones declined 23% for Quarter, which marks the worst first quarter in its entire 135-year history. The Bear market has certainly started with a bang. Q2 got off to an awful start with the Dow closing 973 points lower at 20,943. The NYSE Tick reading of -1920 was the lowest negative intraday Tick since September 17, 2001 (-1947), the day the NYSE re-opened for trading following a multi-day shutdown when the U.S was attacked on 9/11. The McClellan Oscillator which had risen as high as +220 over the past week, closed in negative territory last night at -9. Yesterday my Dow plan worked really well with the market hitting my buy range with a low of 20780 before rallying to trade at 21280 this morning. I did not buy the Dow myself as I had enough overnight exposure in being long both the FTSE and DAX for members who did buy I would take your gain here. The Dow has strong resistance from 21450/21750 where I will be a small seller with a 21885 stop. My only interest in buying the Dow is on a dip lower to 20500/20750 with a 20345 stop.
June NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ hit my 7550 buy level we saw a brief rally above 7620 and I used this rally to cover this long position at 7585 and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 7640/7740 where I will be a seller with a 7805 stop.
June BUND
The BUND never came close to my 173.85 sell level before closing 120 points lower and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 172.95/173.55 with a 173.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Optimism towards Gold remains extreme and is one of the main reasons why I am staying on the sidelines as I am afraid to go short given how expensive these Gold points are with the spreadbetting firms. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF took in $2.9 billion last week, its biggest inflow since 2009. Total assets in Gold ETFs jumped to a record on Tuesday. Investors are speculating to a record degree that Gold will continue to rally, even though prices are well below record highs.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 13.72/14.02 with a higher and tight 13.35 stop.
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