U.S. stocks fell after hitting all-time highs as traders assessed a rally that’s added more than $5 trillion to equities this year. The S&P 500 Index erased gains, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped after jumping above 9,000 for the first time. The US Dollar slid against most of its major peers. Treasuries rose. Oil rebounded from Friday’s lows as a government report showed U.S. crude inventories sank to a two-month low. While it’s been a big December melt-up for the S&P 500, technical warning signs of a climax may be brewing. The Index is edging ever closer to the upper band of its trading envelope, while its GTI Global Strength Indicator — a measure of upward and downward movements of successive closing prices — reveals the deepest overbought territory in all of 2019.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 47 points last Tuesday and is now ahead by 768 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Earlier Friday, Equities got a lift from reports of strong holiday-season revenue, with e-commerce sales jumping, which reassured traders that American consumers are feeling confident. A solid rebound for industrial profits in China also buoyed sentiment, with investors now looking to the initial trade deal with the U.S. to sustain gains in the new year.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to close at 3239.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 0.5%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.5%.
The Euro jumped 0.7% to $1.1179.
The Japanese Yen strengthened 0.1% to 109.48 per dollar.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Dollar is poised to notch its biggest monthly gain versus the greenback since September 2003. The currency was steady after strengthening 0.53% for December through Friday.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped two basis points to 1.87.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to -0.26%.
Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.755%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $61.72 a barrel.
Gold increased 0.2% to $1,517.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data from either the UK or the Euro-Zone as most of Europe is on holiday until Thursday. At 1.30 pm we have U.S Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance. This is followed at 2.45 pm by the Chicago Purchasing Mangers’ Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales and at 3.30 pm the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
March S&P 500
Sentiment continues to hit record levels as shown by the ‘’Dumb Money Confidence’’ On December 23, the dumb money confidence hit 88%, which is the second most optimistic level ever, while Smart Money Confidence’’ fell to just 17%. On top of this the ‘’Fear & Greed Index’’ peaked at a reading of ‘’Extreme Greed’’ at 94 on Friday before closing slightly lower at 91. Remember it was December 26 last year when we bottomed with a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear’’ with a 4 print and look what has happened in the past 12 months. As I said to my Platinum Members on Friday is history going to repeat itself but in the opposite direction? In my opinion that is a definite ‘’Yes’’. Last Thursday I was stopped out of my 3213 short position at 3233 before the market rallied early Friday to my 3248 sell level before selling off to my 3238 T/P level. Subsequently I went short the S&P again at 3246 before unfortunately covering this position too early at 3243.50 and I am now flat. Today my sell level will be from 3252/3267 with a 3278 stop. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a dip lower to 3160/3180 with the same 3149 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro has rallied strongly over the Christmas Holiday as expected with the market hitting my 1.1110 T/P level on my 1.1095 latest long position. This morning the Euro is trading at 1.12 and today I will look to buy the Euro on any dip lower to 1.1120/1.1160 with a 1.1075 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar has it biggest daily fall on Friday since October as the market closed 0.5% lower. I am still flat and today I will lower my sell level to 96.80/97.25 with a 97.55 stop.
March DAX
The DAX is struggling which is no surprise given the strength of the Euro. German Markets are closed tomorrow. As a result there is no point in trying to put a position on and I will stay flat until my next Daily Commentary on Thursday.
March FTSE
Shortly after I posted last Tuesday the FTSE traded higher to my second sell level at 7610 for a now average short position at 7580. However just like the DAX above the FTSE is struggling which is no surprise with Cable trading 200 points higher at 1.31. With the UK Markets on a half-day tomorrow I have now covered this short position for a small gain here at 7567 and I am now flat. I will look to sell the FTSE again from 7610/7660 with a 7705 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7575.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow continues to rise in lethargic holiday trading. This move higher saw the market hit my second sell level at 28700 for a now average short position at 28600. I will raise my T/P level on this position to 28550 with a now higher 28805 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ also made new all-time highs over the past week and I am still flat. The market has strong resistance from 8840/8890 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 8935 stop.
March BUND
The BUND rallied to a high of 171.70 on Friday before opening much lower at 171.00 this morning. As German Markets are closed tomorrow I am going to stay flat the Bund until my next Daily Commentary on Thursday.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is following my roadmap perfectly as the rally off the December low show no sign of slowing. Unfortunately we have not been able to get a long position on board and today I will now raise my buy level to 1491/1501 with a 1482 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to lag the rally in Gold. I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level to 17.35/17.75 with a higher 17.05 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 18.03.
As most of Europe is closed tomorrow and Wednesday for the New Years Holiday, my next commentary will be on Thursday January 2, 2020. I would like to wish all my members a peaceful and prosperous 2020 and to thank everyone for their continued support over the past year. If any of my calls not hit today are subsequently triggered tomorrow I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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