U.S. Equity Markets finished the week at a record high as investors counted down to the holiday break. The US Dollar and 10-year Treasuries gained. The S&P 500 Index had its biggest weekly gain since September and was on pace to gain 28% this year. The benchmark hit a new peak Friday, led by technology and health-care shares, while the Stoxx Europe 600 also reached all-time high. The Treasury yield curve remained near its steepest in more than a year, underscoring how recession worries have receded. Equity trading in the U.S. spiked as the session drew to a close as major indexes rebalanced and options and futures on indexes and stocks expired in what’s known as quadruple witching. Investors have largely been in a holding pattern last week, buffeted by conflicting macro winds. President Donald Trump’s impeachment has morphed into a standoff, yet U.S. lawmakers managed to pass spending bills Thursday to avoid a partial government shutdown. The signing of a first-phase U.S.-China trade deal was set for January. And while the logjam in U.K. politics is over, the prospect of a messy break from the European Union is back on the agenda. The Pound saw its worst weekly decline in more than two years amid concern that Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU negotiators will struggle to agree a trade deal next year. The Euro also weakened.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 33 points on Friday and is now ahead by 786 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
We have closed higher in seven of the of the last eight days so tactically we are now severely overbought. People know the seasonals are good, they know the macro situation has improved in terms of global growth and the trade situation. The concern is that a lot of this is already reflected in the market. Major asset classes are collectively on track for the best returns in a decade in 2019 after central banks around the world eased monetary policy. Trade tensions also eased ahead of the year end, calming investors’ nerves: The Chinese government said it will cut import tariffs for some goods, and the signing of the first-phase of the U.S.-China trade deal was set for January.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.5% to close at 3221.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.3% to close at a new record high of 28,45
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8% to 418.40, the highest on record.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.1% to 109.47 per dollar.
The Euro fell 0.2% to close at $1.1085.
The British Pound decreased 0.1% to $1.3005.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries held steady at 1.92%.
German’s 10-Year Yield decreased two basis points to 0.26%, the highest in more than six weeks.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude declines 1.4% to $61.22 a barrel, the biggest drop in more than three weeks.
Gold was little changed at $1,479.36 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Import Index which came in at +0.5% versus +0.4% expected. At 1.30 pm we have the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Durable Goods Orders. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have New Home Sales.
March S&P 500
There is no end in sight to this incredible S&P rally with the Market now trading nearly 125 Handles higher than it’s December low of 3069.50 as yet again anyone shorting this market gets slammed. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index spiked to a new ‘’Extreme Greed’’ high of 92 intra-day before closing at 91. This move higher saw the S&P hit my second sell level at 3220 for a now 3213 average short position. I will now raise my stop on this position to 3233 with a now higher 3210 T/P level and if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I will also look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 3160/3180 over the coming days with a 3149 stop.
EUR/USD
Having traded sideways for most of the past week the Euro finally broke lower to hit my 1.1095 buy level. I am still long with the same 1.1025 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1110.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will again raise my sell level to 97.50/97.90 with a now higher 98.15 tight stop.
March DAX
While the EuroStoxx continue to make new all-time highs the DAX is struggling to follow suit. This is surprising given the weakness in the Euro. Today I will raise my buy level to 13140/13210 with a higher 13085 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will now lower my sell level to 7545/7585 with a 7620 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I first mentioned two years ago that I had a target level of 28500 in the Dow which has now been surpassed with Friday’s 28606 spike high. I am now short at 28500 and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 28700 with a now higher 28780 stop. Sentiment levels are off the charts but we may have to wait until next month for a sustained move lower given that fact that seasonally this is one of the strongest times of the year. I will also raise my T/P level to 28430 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ traded higher to my 8715 sell level the market has a small sell-off to a low of 8690 and this move lower enabled me to cover this short position at my revised 8700 T/P level and I am still flat. Today my sell level will be from 8760/8810 with a 8855 stop.
March BUND
It took a while but finally my 171.30 average long position worked well as the Bund rallied to my 171.48 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Bund is opening higher at 171.80 and I will now look to buy the Bund on any dip lower to 171.10/171.50 with a 170.80 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level 1463/1473 with a higher 1455 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my 16.90 buy level before rallying to trade at 17.40 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 16.90/17.30 with a higher 16.55 stop.
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