U.S. Equity Markets bounced back to claim fresh records as investors chased gains that have added more than $5 trillion to valuations this year. Oil topped $61 a barrel and Treasuries edged higher. After dipping Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index on Thursday pushed past 3,200 for the first time, led by tech, health-care and communications shares. The benchmark is up more than 7% in the fourth quarter and 27% so far this year. Data showing that Jobless Claims fell less than forecast did little to alter views on the health of the economy. Markets ignored the impeachment of President Donald Trump. The US Dollar steadied against its major peers. China said it was in close contact with the U.S. to sign the initial trade deal announced last Friday. Treasuries bucked a sell-off in sovereign bonds from London to Tokyo as monetary decisions rolled out. Sweden’s Central Bank raised its benchmark to end half a decade of sub-zero interest rates, a move that will provide a test case for global counterparts with negative borrowing costs. With few new catalysts on the horizon to revive the equity rally and details of the trade deal remaining vague, equity traders appear to be in a holding pattern. Central banks likewise seem to be on hold, with policy makers in Japan, Taiwan, Norway and the U.K. leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Elsewhere, the Pound fell, adding to worst two-day plunge since July. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced. Earlier in Asia, equities dipped in Tokyo, Sydney and Hong Kong while they edged higher in Seoul. Stocks in China were unchanged after erasing the day’s losses as the central bank injected more liquidity before a year-end cash squeeze.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 753 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
We have now closed higher in six of the last seven days so tactically we are overbought. People know the seasonals are good, they know the macro situation has improved in terms of global growth and the trade situation. The concern is that a lot of this is already reflected in the market.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.4% to close at 3205.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5% to close at a new record high of 28,376
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.2% to 415.
Japan’s Topix closed down 0.2%.
MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.2%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Japanese Yen appreciated 0.2% to 109.27 per dollar.
The offshore Yuan was little changed at 7.0093 per dollar.
The Euro was little changed at $1.1116.
The British Pound decreased 0.5% to $1.3028.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries held steady at 1.92%.
German’s 10-Year Yield advanced one basis point to 0.24%, the highest in more than six weeks.
India’s 10-year yields tumbled about 15 basis points to 6.60%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5|% to $61.22 a barrel, the highest in more than seven months.
Gold was little changed at $1,479.36 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of Germany’s GFK Consumer Confidence which came in at 9.6 versus 9.8 expected. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Current Account and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK GDP, Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement, Current Account and Total Business Investment. Next, we have U.S GDP and the PCE at 1.30 pm, followed by Personal Spending and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 3.00 pm. Also at the same time we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence, Finally at 3.30 pm we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.
March S&P 500
Yesterday’s latest new all-time high in the S&P saw the market hit my 3206 sell level. I am still short and I will now look to add to this position on any further move higher to 3220 with a now higher 3229 stop. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to a new high for the year closing with an ‘’Extreme High’’ of 90. Today, brings quadruple witching in the U.S., the simultaneous expiration date of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Expect elevated trading volume, particularly in the last hour of the session. Once we get the expiration of the September Contracts out of the way we may finally see a sell-off in the S&P as indicated by recent sentiment indicators. I will now raise my T/P level on my S&P short position to 3201 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a small buyer from 1.1060/1.1100 with the same 1.1025 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will again raise my sell level slightly to 97.30/97.70 with a higher 98.05 stop.
March DAX
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades unchanged to the December Contract. Unfortunately the December DAX just missed my 13130 buy level yesterday by a few points before rallying back above 13200. This morning the March Contract is trading at 13210 as I go to press and today I will be a buyer in this Contract on any dip lower to 13080/13140 with a 13025 stop.
March FTSE
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at a 59 point Discount to the December Contract which itself expires at 10.00 am this morning. Today I will be a seller of the March Contract on any further rally to 7560/7600 with a 7635 tight stop. Given how severely overbought the FTSE is trading at this time I still do not want to be long the market until we see a decent correction first.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I am already short the S&P I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their Dow sell level to 28450/28590 with the same 28645 stop. If I am taken short at this sell level I will have a T/P level at 28380. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March NASDAQ
I have now rolled to the March Contract which trades at a 40 Point Premium to the December Contract. Thankfully the December Contract traded lower to my breakeven exit level at 8580 before turning around after the US Markets opened and I am still flat. This morning the March Contract is trading at a price of 8679 and I will be a seller on any further rally to 8710/8750 with a 8795 stop.
March BUND
Yesterday the Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 171.10 for a now average long position at 171.30. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to T/P level at a price of 171.48 with the same 170.85 stop. I am still long and I will leave the parameters the same and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and today I will raise my buy level to 1455/1465 with a higher 1447 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 16.50/16.90 with the same 16.15 stop.
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