U.S. Equity Markets inched upward Tuesday as Manufacturing and Housing data topped expectations, just as the sugar rush of a partial trade deal between America and China began to wear off. The US Dollar gained while 10-year Treasuries slipped. The S&P 500 Index closed at a new high, barely topping the previous session’s record, amid news that U.S. factory production last month rebounded by more than forecast and that construction of new U.S. homes beat estimates as permits to build climbed to a 12-year high. Financial and consumer discretionary stocks led the benchmark higher. Housing is an economic bellwether and its recent strength is further encouraged by the strength we’ve seen in manufacturing, as those two industries are typically related. However, critical to the health of housing is ongoing trade tensions. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped from Monday’s record close, as Unilever tumbled in the wake of a sales-growth warning and led a slump in personal goods makers. U.K. shares were particularly volatile, and Sterling sank the most since July versus the Euro after Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed a legal change that revived the chances of a no-deal Brexit. Earlier in Asia, a benchmark stock gauge rose to the highest level since mid-2018. European Government Bonds drifted higher. Elsewhere, West Texas intermediate crude edged higher, while gold was little changed. Bitcoin’s woes continued, as the digital currency languished below $7,000.
To mark my 1975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 742 points for December, having made 780 points in November, 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
With a $44 trillion global gauge of stocks close to an all-time high and benchmarks in Europe and the U.S. also hovering near record levels, concerns linger over the details of the China accord. The warning by bellwether Unilever also took some of the shine from improved forecasts for the global economy.
The S&P 500 Index was little changed at 3192.
The German DAX declined 0.7% to close at 13,287.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.7%, the first retreat in a week on the biggest drop in more than two weeks.
The U.K.‘s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.1% to 7525, the highest in more than 19 weeks following its fifth consecutive advance.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.3%, hitting bits highest level in 18 months.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.2%.
The British Pound sank 1.6% to $1.3123, on the biggest tumble in over 13 months.
The Euro was little changed at $1.1144.
The Japanese Yen was also unchanged at 109.57 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 1.89%.
Germany’s 10-year yield was basically unchanged at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell six basis points to 0.78%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 1.1% to $60.89 a barrel.
Gold was little changed at $1,476.70 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Producer Prices at 7.00 and the IFO Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed at 9.30 am by UK Retail Price Index, PPI and CPI. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output. Finally, we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Speaking today are the Fed’s Brainard and Evans at 10.15 am and 5.40 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
The Fear & Greed Index that I mentioned at length yesterday made another new closing high of 85. It was exactly a year ago that we closed with a reading of just 10 which is Extreme Fear and look what has happened since the market bottomed on December 26 2018. I am not calling for a crash at this time but this market is long overdue a massive correction since we bottomed in Late August when the S&P made a low of 2811. I am still flat the S&P and today I will lower my sell level slightly to 3200/3215 with a lower 3223 stop. My only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 3155/3169 with a 3147 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as I continue to be a buyer from 1.1065/1.1105 with the same 1.1025 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a small seller from 97.00/97.40 with a 97.70 tight stop.
December DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 13270 buy level before rallying to my 13305 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the DAX on any dip lower to 13120/13190 with a 12075 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13225.
December FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market fell shy of my 7555 sell level with a 7541 high print before having a small sell-off into the close. With Sterling falling 1.3% it was a surprise to see the FTSE close lower. Today I will leave my 7555/7595 sell level unchanged with the same 7630 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my 28390 sell level before also having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat and today I will leave my 28390/28540 sell level unchanged with the same 28645 stop. I still do not want to long the Dow at this time.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market traded in a narrow range yesterday. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 171.20/171.60 with a higher 170.75 stop.
December NASDAQ
I am still short at a price of 8580 with the same 8550 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 8630 with the same 8665 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
The Precious Metals are quiet as they have been for most of the past six weeks. I am still flat and today I will leave my 1452/1462 buy level unchanged with the same 1443 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 16.50/16.90 with the same 16.15 stop.
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