U.S. Stock Indexes were mixed and bonds advanced as the risk rally stalled below all-time highs amid mixed economic data and mounting concern over a partial trade deal. The Japanese Yen gained along with gold. The S&P 500 eked out its third gain in a row, but continued to trade under records reached over the last week sparked by hopes the U.S. and China would soon hammer out an agreement. That hasn’t happened, and there’s been an abundance of signs that negotiations are stumbling. Both the NASDAQ Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day barely changed. Tech lead decliners as Cisco Systems Inc. tumbled after earnings fell short of expectations, a signal companies are holding off on purchases amid the trade standoff. Walmart Inc., which had risen earlier after earnings, fell. Boeing Co. continued its torrid week, rising 1.4%. A mixed bag of U.S. economic data Thursday, rising Producer Prices and more Initial Jobless Claims than expected, also gave traders few reasons to change bets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 1.80%, pushing its weekly decline to more than 10 basis points and ending talks of a reflation trade. Oil pared gains after a government report showed American inventories rose.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 15 points yesterday and is still ahead by 307 points for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The gloomy figures out of Asia are serving as a reminder of the impact that ongoing trade tensions are having on the global economy. Investors looking for a resolution are still awaiting news of a signing date and location for a U.S.-China phase-one trade deal that’s been on the cards for weeks. President Donald Trump said that talks are moving “very rapidly.”
Elsewhere, European shares slipped as data showed Germany narrowly dodged a recession last quarter.
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to close at a new record high of 3097.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.3%.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index dipped 0.7%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 0.5%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.7% higher at 23.303.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The Euro gained 0.1% at 1.1016.
The British Pound gained 0.3% to 1.2886.
The Japanese Yen increased 0.4% 108.38.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries sank seven basis points.
Germany’s 10-year yield decreased four basis points.
Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points.
Japan’s 10-year yield fell three basis points.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $57.00.
Gold gained 0.6% to 1,472.30.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade and Inflation at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Retail Sales and the New York State Manufacturing Index. At 2.15 pm we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilisation. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories.
December S&P 500
Despite my concerns that the S&P would have trouble rallying from here the S&P traded to a new all-time high overnight at a price of 3110. This move higher sees me now short in small size at a price of 3107 as optimism grows that we will eventually get a meaningful Trade Agreement with China. The U.S Stock Market triggered a third Hindenburg Omen observation yesterday, for the third day in a row and we now have three confirmed H.O.’s on the clock and this signal will now be valid until March 2020. This potential stock market crash signal has been in play for every stock market plunge greater than 15% since 1986. This development tells us that the stock market sits in a very dangerous place at this time. Meanwhile the VIX also closed higher at 13.05. Today I will add to this short position on any further move higher to 3120 with a 3128 stop. I will also raise my T/P level on this trade to 3100 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro which again missed my buy level before rallying back above 1.1020. Today I will raise my buy level to 1.0945/1.0985 with a 1.0905 stop. I will still be a small seller on any further rally to 1.1090/1.1130 with the same 1.1165 tight stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will now lower my sell level to 98.20/98.70 with a 99.05 stop.
December DAX
Despite the new highs in the US Futures Markets overnight the DAX is struggling to follow suit. This is now surprise given the continuing weak economic data been released on a consistent basis. I am still flat the DAX and today I will lower my sell level to 13325/13385 with a lower 13430 stop.
December FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE which again just missed my buy level before having a small rally into the close. Today I will leave my 7230/7270 buy level unchanged with the same 7195 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Earlier this morning the Dow traded higher to my initial 27880 sell level. As I am still short the S&P I have now cut this position at my revised 27865 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Dow from 27930/28080 with a higher 28195 stop. Given all my concerns as outlined in my S&P Commentary above I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
December NASDAQ
No Change as I am still a small seller on any further rally to 8340/8390 with a higher 8435 stop.
December BUND
The Bund traded above 171 yesterday which was 200 points above Tuesday’s low print before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat the market and today I will raise my buy level to 169.90/170.40 with a higher 169.55 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a small seller from 1480/1490 with a 1497 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 16.20/16.60 with a 15.90 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 16.82.
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