U.S. stocks ended slightly lower in thin trading amid American data that was largely in line with estimates and more assurances that Federal Reserve officials stand ready to act if needed. Treasuries rose. The S&P 500 fell less than a point, notching a second straight drop even after getting a boost from IHS Markit data that signalled the U.S. economy remains the global leader. Volume was 28% below the 30-day average. Data from Germany and France fell far short of estimates, sending stocks in the region down 0.8%. U.S. futures had been higher overnight on signs of easing trade tensions. American Money-Market interest rates held steady. The U.S. data bolstered confidence that the recession signals emanating from the bond market are overdone, while the gloomy data from the heart of the Euro area was a stark reminder to investors of the fragility of the global economy. While markets remain on edge ahead of next month’s planned high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, they’re also fixated on any action or messaging from the world’s major central banks that could support growth. Britain’s top court is set to rule this morning at 10.30 am whether Boris Johnson’s controversial suspension of Parliament is legal. With hours to go before the decision, it’s still unclear how the Prime Minister will respond if he loses the case. If the Supreme Court finds Johnson’s move broke the law, he could be forced to recall the legislature, giving his opponents of a no-deal Brexit time to thwart his threat to leave the European Union without a deal by the end of October.
To mark my 1900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 170 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1231 points for September, having made 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.01% to close at 2991. However overnight President Trump talks were going well with China and the S&P is now trading higher at 3003 as I go to press.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 0.8%.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index dipped 0.6%.
Meanwhile, Equities in India continued a surge after last week’s cut in Corporation Tax
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%.
The Euro declined 0.2% to $1.0998.
The British Pound declined 0.3% to $1.2435.
The onshore Yuan dipped 0.5% to 7.125 per dollar.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% to 107.44 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 1.71%.
The yield on two-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 1.67%.
Germany’s 10-year yield decreased six basis points to -0.59%.
Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at -0.207%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.7% to $58.48 a barrel.
Gold Futures climbed 1% to $1,530.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Business Climate Survey at 9.00 am and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK Public Sector Net Borrowing. At 10.30 am we have the ruling on whether Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is legal, followed by the CBI Industrial Trends Survey at 11.00 am. Next, we have the U.S. Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
December S&P 500
Following the release of the much weaker than expected German Manufacturing data the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for an average buy level of 2988. As so many positions hit at the same time I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position for a small gain at 2990 and I am still flat. While global growth is slowing, growth in the U.S. is still chugging along, not enough to justify the high valuations in the stock market but as we saw again yesterday as long as the S&P can hold its 50 Day Moving Average (2952) this market will continue to be a buy on dips. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2983/2993 with the same 2975 stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.0970 buy level shortly after I posted before rallying to my revised 1.0990 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro from 1.0920/1.0960 with a lower 1.0885 stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. The Dollar continues to move net-sideways. The Daily Sentiment Index is at 80%, which is a relatively high level for a market that has moved sideways since the start of the month. Today I will again raise my sell level to 98.55/98.95 with a higher 99.30 stop.
December DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range before turning around and rallying over 100 points off its 12248.50 low print. After the PMI was released I emailed my Platinum Members to lower their buy level to a price of 12250 with a 12290 T/P level and I am now flat. As I have said numerous times a market that cannot decline on bad news has to be ‘’Respected’’. Today I will again look to buy the DAX on any dip lower to 12190/12260 with a 12135 stop.
December FTSE
My FTSE plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 7260 buy level before rallying above 7320 overnight. I covered my long position too early at 7280 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the FTSE from 7215/7255 with a 7170 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
As so many of my positions hit at the same time I waited to buy the Dow which I did at a price of 26850. As I wanted to continue with my theme of banking points when available I covered this long position too early at 26890 and I am now flat. Overnight the Dow made a high of 27120 before selling off 80 points from there as the market is nervous ahead of the German IFO data due to be released at 9.00 am. Today I will again look to buy the Dow from 26730/26880 with the same 26595 stop which is just below its 26615 50 Day Moving Average. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 7810 buy level before rallying to my 7840 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 7760/7820 with a 7725 stop.
December BUND
The Bund has now rallied over 200 points off last week’s spike low helped by the softness of the economy as alluded to by ECB President Dragi’s speech yesterday afternoon. The Bund has strong resistance from 174.60/175.20 and I will be a small seller in this area with a 175.55 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1487/1497 with the same 1479 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver closed over 3% higher yesterday and I am still flat. For the bulls to regain control we need to see the September high of 19.69 broken. As long as last Friday’s 17.76 low holds then Silver will be a buy on dips. I am not going to chase this market higher and I will leave my 17.70/18.20 buy level unchanged with the same 17.35 stop.
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