U.S. stocks rebounded for second day on signs the Trump administration is working toward easing tensions with trade partners. Treasuries advanced. The S&P 500’s two-day gain was the biggest in more than a month after Bloomberg reported President Donald Trump would postpone by up to six months a decision on car tariffs that was due by Saturday. The benchmark is still down over 3% since the the trade war with China flared last week. American and German carmakers jumped on the news. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also said negotiators were close to a deal with Mexico and Canada on removing metals tariffs, helping to boost indexes. The two-year Treasury yield touched the lowest level since February 2018 early Wednesday before paring losses, while the 10-year rate fell to 2.37%. The dollar erased its advance against major peers to trade little changed. Oil rose above $62 a barrel.
To mark my 1825th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 305 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1396 points for May, having made 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The possibility that the president will delay penalties on cars and end steel and aluminum tariffs helped calm investors concerns about Trump’s protectionist turn against major trade partners, outside of China. However, anxiety still hovered over markets after unexpectedly weak U.S. and Chinese economic numbers Wednesday heightened worries the trade war could weigh on a global economy that’s already staggering. It is clear that any news from the administration around lessening of trade disputes is going to be received pretty well, and we certainly saw that yesterday. The S&P 500 Index closed 0.6% higher, the biggest two-day advance since April 1, while the Nasdaq 100 Index increased 1.4%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.5% and Germany’s DAX Index advanced 0.9%.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was again little changed. The sideways boring action continues in the Euro which closed unchanged at $1.1208. As the pressure increases on PM May the British pound dipped 0.5% to $1.2842.
Bonds
As mentioned in my Economic Commentary above the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell four basis points to 2.37%. In Europe there little sign of any growth which is reflected by the fact that Germany’s 10-year yield dipped three basis points to -0.1%. On the back of the weaker Pound Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.063%.
Commodities
In Commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $62.21 a barrel, while Gold was unchanged at $1,296.90 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by US Weekly Jobless Claims. Building permits, Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. Finally we have a clatter of Central Speakers across the board today, with ECB’s Praet DE Guindos and Coeure speaking at 8.30 am, 1.30 pm and 7.00 pm respectively. The Fed’s Brainard is speaking at 4.15 pm and this is followed by the Bank of England’s Haskel at 5.30 pm. Also at 4.15 pm we have the Bank of Canada Poloz’s speech.
June S&P 500
Incredible two-way volatility in the S&P yesterday with the market trading lower to my 2818 buy level before rallying to my 2854 sell level. This move higher enabled me to cover my long position at my 2825 T/P level while I covered my short position too early at 2850 as I wanted to be flat overnight. I am still flat and today I will again look to sell the S&P on any move higher to 2855/2867 with a 2875 stop. The S&P has support from 2815/2825 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 2808 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be an aggressive buyer from 2763/2775 with the same wider 2749 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1110/1.1150 with a 1.1085 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 1.1260/1.1300 sell level unchanged with the same 1.1335 tight stop.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar has now traded with the same big figure for the best part of the last month. I do not ever remember such a period of low volatility in the currency markets especially given the increased vol in equity markets. Today I will continue to be a seller of the Dollar on any further rally to 97.70/98.10 with a 98.40 stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 11870 buy level before rallying 150 points. As so many of my positions hit at the same time I covered this long DAX position at my revised 11900 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX was the strongest performer yesterday closing up 1.1% as the buyers continue to be active against the key 11850 support level. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 11850/11920 with a 11795 stop.
June FTSE
The FTSE just missed my 7165 buy level before rallying into the close and I am still flat. Given the increased weakness in Sterling I would have expected the FTSE to be stronger. As a result I will now look to sell the market on any further rally to 7290/7340 with a 7375 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The good thing about yesterday is that no matter where you bought either the DAX, Dow or S&P you would have had a nice gain. As I was already long the DAX and S&P I waited to buy the Dow which I did at 25360 before the market rallied strongly to my 25520 T/P level and I am now flat. Yet again the Dow broke its 200 Day Moving Average before closing above it. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 25240/25390 with a 25145 stop. The Dow has strong resistance from 25780.25950 and I will be a seller in this area with a wider 26070 stop which is just above its 50 Day Moving Average.
June NASDAQ
The NASDAQ traded the whole of my sell range for a now average short position at 7500. I will leave my stop unchanged at 7565 while raising my T/P level to 7455. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
The sell-off in equity markets saw the Bund trade the whole of my sell range for an average short position at 167.05. As I wanted to be flat overnight I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 167.00 and I am still flat. The Bund made a high of 167.43 yesterday and today I will again look to sell the market from 167.55/167.95 with a 168.25 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and today I will lower my buy level slightly to 1273/1282 with a 1266 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still long the market at 14.80 with the same 15.05 T/P level and 14.45 stop. Again if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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