Major U.S. stock Indices closed mixed as earnings reports sparked a rally in big technology companies and sent industrial shares lower. The US Dollar extended gains to a four-month high. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 reached a record following strong results from Microsoft and Facebook, the broader S&P 500 Index ended little changed after 3M cut its earnings forecast and UPS reported a profit drop. The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped as two major European mergers appeared to founder. Treasuries dipped after solid U.S. Durable-Goods data.
To mark my 1825th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 107 points yesterday and is now ahead by 846 points for April, having made 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
Investors are looking to company earnings to breathe new life into the global rally that lifted the U.S. benchmark to a record high this week and helped bring the longest run of gains in more than a year for European stocks. Mostly positive results so far this earnings season have gone some way toward mitigating concerns over the global economy. The S&P 500 Index was little changed at the close of trading in New York having hit an intra-day low of 2912. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 percent.
Currencies
The world’s largest market isn’t buying the feel-good narrative that investors have embraced this week with global stocks sitting on the cusp of setting a record high and the riskiest corporate bonds soaring like the world economy is back in synchronized growth mode. But traders in the $5 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market are flocking to the dollar, yen and Swiss franc, which is a bit odd since those “haven” currencies normally outperform when the outlook is worsening, not improving. Of course, exchange rates are driven by a seemingly infinite number of variables, but it’s notable that the dollar, yen and franc are the best performers over the past week against a basket of developed-market currencies. The dollar measure is the highest since 2017, while the yen gauge is rising the most since the late 2018 turmoil in global markets. That’s even with speculation rising that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates later this year as inflation slows and the Bank of Japan saying on Thursday that it has no intention of raising rates for at least 12 months. It’s not hard to see what has currency traders on the defensive. More and more central banks are expressing concern about the global economic outlook and slower inflation, with the Bank of Canada and Sweden’s Riksbank joining the chorus this week. South Korea, a bellwether for global trade and technology, cast doubt over hopes for a quick rebound in the world economy by reporting on Thursday its biggest contraction of gross domestic product in a decade. China is sending signals that that it might dial back economic support measures, which is a bit concerning given that 3M Co. and Caterpillar Inc. both warned this week about weakening business conditions in the Asian nation. Throw in a budding currency crisis in both Turkey and Argentina, and it’s understandable that foreign-exchange traders might not be ready to join the party. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent, while the Euro dipped 0.2 percent to close at $1.1132 which is a new two-year low, and the Japanese yen gained 0.5 percent to 111.67 per dollar. Argentina’s currency dropped to a record low after suffering a deep sell-off Wednesday.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.53 percent. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.01 percent. In the UK, the 10-year yield dipped two basis points to 1.15 percent.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped 0.3 percent. Yesterday was a quiet trading session for the commodity markets with Gold rebound 0.2% to close at $1277 an ounce and WTI fell 1.4% to close at $65 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Mortgage Approvals and the CBI Industrial Trends Survey at 9.30 am and 11.00 am respectively. This is followed at 1.30 pm by US GDP. Finally at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 2916 buy level before rallying to my 2923 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently the S&P rebounded to a high of 2928 before the close before selling of to sit at 2919 as I go to press. I would expect volatility surrounding the 1.30 pm release of US GDP which is expected to rise 1.3%. The S&P has strong support from 2895/2910 and I will be a strong buyer on any dip to this area with a 2886 stop. My only interest in selling the S&P is still on a rally higher to 2942/2952 with a 2959 stop.
EUR/USD
I am concerned by the recent break of the key 1.1175 pivot level for the Euro. This level has contained the market over the past two years and has to be respected. Yesterday afternoon I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long 1.1155 Euro position at a breakeven. This was subsequently filled and I am now flat. Today I will lower my sell level to 1.1190/1.1250 with a 1.1290 stop. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Euro at this time as I look for the market to test its next key support at 1.1040/1.1070.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will leave my 98.25/98.65 sell level unchanged with the same 98.95 stop.
June DAX
The DAX just missed my 11230 buy level before having a small rally into the New York close and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level slightly to 12130/12195 with a lower 12075 tight stop.
June FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE which finally had its overdue sell-off despite the weaker Pound. Today I will lower my sell level to 7435/7475 with a 7510 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a bad day yesterday with the market at one stage 400 points lower than the highs recorded on Tuesday. The sell-off saw the Dow hit my 26380 buy level before rallying 100 points and as I want to be flat overnight I covered this position at my revised 26410 T/P level and I am now flat. The Doe has strong support from 26130/26280 and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 26060 tight stop.
June NASDAQ
Unfortunately the NASDAQ just missed my 7890 sell level with a 7880 rebound high before falling 100 as indicated by the 93|% consecutive DSI readings. Today I will now lower my sell level to 7855/7895 with a 7945 stop.
June BUND
No Change as I am still short from Wednesday at an average rate of 165.55 with the same 166.05 stop and 165.45 T/P level. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1258/1266 with a 1249 higher stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
In the last few minutes Silver has traded higher to my 15.05 T/P level on my latest 14.98 long position and I am now flat. I will now look to re-buy Silver again on any further dip lower to 14.55/14.95 with a tight 14.30 stop.
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