U.S. Indices were mixed on Friday, with the Russell 2000 outperforming, which rallied 1.2%. The equal-weight ETF also saw strong gains while the majority of sectors were green too, showing strong breadth with the heavy-weight sectors (Comms, Tech and Consumer Disc) weighing on broader index performance. The highlight of the session was the CPI report, which ultimately came in softer than expected on the headline, while core was in line with forecasts. Goods prices were supportive of the view that tariff-induced inflation is largely behind us, but services inflation continued to accelerate, which gave Fed’s Goolsbee some concerns. T-notes were firmer across the curve in response to the inflation data, with the front end leading, seeing the curve bull steepen. In FX, Sterling outperformed while the Australian Dollar lagged, with price action elsewhere rather tame. Crude prices settled flat to slightly firmer, with crude paring the immediate downside after OPEC surveys revealed the bloc is leaning towards resuming output hikes from April. US-China relations were in the limelight after the Pentagon added a plethora of Chinese companies to a list accused of aiding the Chinese military, although this list was later removed. Gold and Silver prices saw further gains alongside Bitcoin. The January CPI report leant soft. The headline rose 0.171%, beneath the 0.3% forecast and cooling from the prior 0.298%. The Y/Y rose 2.4%, below the 2.5% forecast and dropping from the 2.7% read in December. The core metrics were in line with expectations. Headline core inflation rose 0.295% M/M, up slightly from the 0.233% in December, with the Y/Y rising 2.5%, down from the prior 2.6%. Within the report, core goods inflation was almost non-existent again (0.04% vs prior 0.03%), with core services accelerating to 0.39% from 0.27%. The supercore print rose to 0.58% from 0.23%, however. Oxford Economics highlights that the data reinforce their view that tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us. The desk’s preliminary estimate for headline and core PCE is 0.19% and 0.265%, respectively, for January. It says the data is welcome news for the Fed, but it does not change its baseline forecast for monetary policy based on one inflation reading. “Lingering distortions from the shutdown in the price data, prospects for solid growth this year, and a stabilising job market will keep the central bank on hold until June.” Fed Member Goolsbee said we are still seeing pretty high services inflation, which is worrisome, and it was not tame in the CPI data. Goolsbee continued to argue that rates can still go down, but needs to see progress on inflation, which he believes is not on a path back to 2% inflation but stuck around 3%. “If we’re at 2% inflation, we can have several more cuts.” He did note that the CPI data had encouraging bits as well. The Chicago Fed President noted that the job market has been steady, with only a modest cooling. He does not know how restrictive Fed policy is, and consumers should hold in if the job market is stable and inflation eases. Goolsbee reiterated his dissent at the December meeting (wanted to hold vs cut), “Would have been wiser to wait in December 2025”. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.25% while Gold reversed most of Thursday’s aggressive sell-off with a gain of 2% on Friday.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 660 points on Friday and is now ahead by 4667 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.05% higher at a price of 6836.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher for a 0.1% gain at a price of 49,500.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.18% higher at a price of 24,732.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.13% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.21% lower at a price of 56,941.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% higher.
The Euro closed 0.03% lower at $1.1866.
The British Pound closed 0.16% higher at $1.3644.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.11% closing at $152.72.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points lower at 4.42%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.76%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 12 basis points lower at 4.05%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.24% lower at $62.69 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.12% higher at $5040.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. With American Markets closed for the Presidents’ Day Holiday, the only other data of note is Canadian CPI which will be released at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Buying the dip worked well in the S&P over the past two trading sessions. After the S&P hit my 6850 buy level we rebounded to my revised 6872 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again on Friday which we did at an average price of 6816 before the market rallied to my 6853 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has strong support from 6765/6790 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 6749 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6816. I no longer want to be short the S&P at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in narrow ranges over the past two trading sessions. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1750/1.1830 with the same 1.1675 ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.2040/1.2120 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2205 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1890. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1960.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from last Tuesday morning at a price of 96.80. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 96.00 while leaving my 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will now lower my T/P level to 97.15. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell. Today, I will lower my sell level to 2690/2750 with a lower 2805 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2645.
FTSE 100
My latest 10500 short FTSE position worked well as the market traded lower to my 10430 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10500/10600 with the same 10675 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10440.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Thursday’s sell level before trading lower. The Dow is now trading 900 points lower from where I marked prices last Thursday morning. Today, I will lower my sell level to 50300/50600 with a lower 50805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 50010. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX fell shy of Thursday’s sell range and I am still flat. As we are having a super month there is no need to take undue risks as I prefer to be patient and wait for my levels to be executed. Today, I will lower my sell level to 25100/25300 with a lower 25505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24940. The NDX has short-term support below from 24150/24350 where I will be a strong buyer with a 23995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24570.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Wednesday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 127.40/128.10 with a higher 126.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.65. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite Gold falling below $4900 on Thursday the market rebounded on Friday as it continues to build value above $5000. However, I still do not trust the price action in Gold short-term. Long-term I am bullish Gold but I am still looking for a more aggressive move lower to push pressure on weak long positions first before moving higher. Given the volatility I have no interest in chasing the market higher believing that we can break down again without notice. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 4770/4840 with the same 4595 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4920. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit a low at 73.70 which was just above Thursday’s buy range before rallying 400 points off this low into Friday’s New York close. With Bitcoin under pressure over the weekend, I will now lower my Silver buy level to 67.10/71.50 with a lower 64.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 74.10
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