U.S Equity Markets closed basically unchanged after a late rally saw earlier losses mostly erased. Last week were the smallest range weeks in points terms in many months as any threatened sell-off is miraculously reversed into the Chicago Close. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that the central bank will need to raise rates again if inflation and the job market do not show more substantial signs of cooling. Bowman also said that she anticipates rates staying at their peak for some time to ensure the current rate-tightening cycle does not go to waste. JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said that he believes the regulators overseeing the banking industry are set to crack down even harder in the wake of the most recent crisis that saw several regional banks collapse. Dimon asserted that the Federal Reserve will take measures to ensure stricter rules on smaller banks but warned that making regulations to strict would also pose a threat to the sector. The Producer Price Index rose 2.3% in April from the year prior, the smallest growth in two years. Meanwhile, applications for unemployment benefits rose to a year-plus high. Both signs point toward the economy slowing significantly. It also increases the chances that the Fed will pause interest-rate hikes in June. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google introduced its new artificial-intelligence (“AI”) feature, known as “Bard,” at its I/O conference this week. It was presented as a new way to search the Internet. The company’s advancements in the AI field prompted optimism among investors, who are watching a new wave of AI wars among top tech companies. Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), one of the world’s largest owners of prime office properties, reported that its real estate assets dropped about 5% in the first quarter. This included a $1.8 billion downward adjustment for market valuation. European Markets close higher. The European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos explicitly mentioned his concern for the rising price of services as his main concern moving forward. While headline inflation has fallen from its peak, service sector inflation driven by higher wages continue to rise. A survey from the European Central Bank showed that Euro-Zone consumers raised their inflation expectations for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022. This comes in opposition to the slowing rate of inflation, which has largely been due to the central bank’s aggressive monetary policy. In Asia, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan sat down with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, over the past two days in Vienna. The White House described the extensive talks as ‘constructive’ and said that discussions covered everything from the two nation’s relationship to global issues such as the war in Ukraine. Both sides viewed this as a step in the right direction as the two nations attempt to mend a battered relationship. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.17% while a stronger Dollar saw close Friday with a small 0.20% loss.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 46 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2391 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at a price of 4124.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 33,300.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.37% lower at a price of 13,340.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.40% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.50% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.81% higher at a price of 29,626.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.6% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0851.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.2460.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $135.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.78%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.17% lower at $70.04 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.20% lower at $2010.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Wholesale Price Index which fell0.4% versus +0.2% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production followed by the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 9.00 pm we have the Net Long-Term TIC Flows.
Cash S&P 500
This remains a very choppy frustrating market with low ranges and low volume and low volatility. This period will come to an end with patience the key. I will continue to be a buyer of dips as long as the 50-Day Moving Average (4058) holds. After the S&P hit my 4105-buy level on Friday, I chickened out of this position covering it at 4110 before the market rallied a further 15 Handles into close. Hopefully you had more patience than me with this latest long position, Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 4088/4103 with the same 4079 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 4160/4175 where I will be a small seller with a 4191 ‘’Closing Stop’’’.
EUR/USD
Wrong!! I was stopped out of my 1.0952 average long position at 1.0858 and I am now flat. The Euro has support from 1.0740/1.0810 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. I will now raise my buy level to 101.50/102.10 with a higher 100.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Frustratingly the DAX missed Friday’s 15940 initial sell level by one point before falling over 80 points off this high and I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 15990/16070 with a higher 16135 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7580/7660 with the same 7515 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the Bank of England hiking rates, I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has now closed lower for the each of the past five sessions and nine of the past 10. This is a rare occurrence. Any stabilisation in the oversold Bank Index will see the Dow soar. Against this background I do not want to be short the market. The 50-Day Moving Average has moved higher to 33155. This level has held every test since the end of March. Today, I will move my buy level higher to 32850/33100 with a higher 32695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX keeps trading higher led by the handful number of stocks that I have mentioned over the past few weeks. On Friday, the NDX sold lower to my 13330 T/P level on my 13420 short position and I am now flat. This morning, the NDX is trading higher at 13365. We have resistance from 13420/13570 where I will again be a seller with the same 13705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
June BUND
This morning the Bund has traded lower to my 135.70 buy level. I will add to this position at 135.00 while leaving my 134.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 136.20 on this position.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1983/1998 with the same 1975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered I will have a T/P level at 2009.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 25.00 with the same 23.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 22.80/23.50 with no stop. Meanwhile I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 25.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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