U.S. Equity Markets bounced around on a relatively quiet day, ending the session mixed as the new week got off to a quiet start. Although, the NASDAQ closed 0.49% higher, the Dow closed yesterday’s session with a loss of 0.37%. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden should push ahead with his $4 trillion spending plan even if it triggers an uptick in inflation, saying that higher interest rates would be a plus for the Federal Reserve. This brought back concerns over inflation and rising interest rates, which could hurt growth stocks. Infrastructure remained in the news, after President Biden rejected the recent Republican counterproposal, saying it does not go far enough. Biden and Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) are set for more talks today. The big catalysts are slated for later in the week, with the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and U.S. inflation data. European Markets closed higher. Treasury Secretary Yellen urged other Group of Seven (“G7”) countries to keep up fiscal support for their economies and not withdraw stimulus too early. G7 counties agreed to a deal on a minimum global tax rate for multinational corporations, though how the agreement will be implemented remains to be seen. Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the British economy is seeing a strong bounce back as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, with pubs and restaurants seeing the largest rebound. Ride-sharing giant Uber (UBER) said its Rides business recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the U.K., Spain, and Germany last month. In Asia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. will hold China accountable for the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. Trade Representative said that the White House was committed to levelling the imbalanced relationship between the U.S. and China. Chinese social media site Weibo suspended some cryptocurrency accounts, another sign that the country is cracking down on market exuberance. Taiwan’s government extended its COVID-19 restrictions by two weeks to June 28 as it deals with rising case numbers. Elsewhere, Bitcoin closed 4% lower on reports that the SEC was concerned with Tesla’s acceptance of bitcoin payments, while Gold rose 0.57% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 24 points yesterday and is now ahead by 476 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% lower at a price of 4226.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points lower for a 0.36% loss at a price of 34,630.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.23% higher at a price of 13,802.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.27% higher at a price of 29,019.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.2191.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.4179.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5%, closing at $109.27.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.20%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.82%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower at 1.57%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.56% lower at $69.23 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.57% higher at $1,896.50 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production and the ZEW Survey at 7.00 am and 10.00 am respectively. Also, at 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone GDP and the Employment Change. This is followed by U.S NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm.
June S&P 500
Following the weaker than expected NFP data on Friday the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 4222 average short position before trading lower yesterday morning to my 4216 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Yesterday, 66% of the S&P Shares closed in the red on a day when the VIX traded at new lows for the year on another low volume trading session. Traders are crying for some volatility and direction in a market that refuses to sell-off while Market Cap to GDP remains over an unstainable 200%. The S&P remains extended, above trend and disconnected from the real economy in its entire history. Yesterday. The S&P traded in a range of just 0.44%, the second lowest of the year. To me, this signals an exhaustion of the uptrend. The S&P has resistance from 4235/4250 where I will again be a seller with a 4261 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4187/4202 with a tight 4175 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4225. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4212.
EUR/USD
Shortly after Friday’s NFP release the Euro rallied to my 1.2165 T/P level on Thursday’s 1.2140 long position and I am still flat. The Euro has support from 1.2110/1.2150 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.2075 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
On Friday, the June Contract hit my 90.05 buy level before rallying yesterday to my 90.16 revised T/P level and I am now flat. I have rolled to the September Contract which trades at a five point Discount to the June Contract. The September Contract has support from 89.20/89.65 where I will again be a buyer with a 88.75 stop.
June DAX
Thankfully we had no sell level in the DAX over the long weekend with the market trading a further 200 points higher from where I marked prices last Thursday morning. I will now raise my buy level to 15380/15450 with a tight 15315 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15495.
June FTSE
I am still flat and today, I will again raise my buy level to 6980/7025 with a higher 6945 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although, the Dow had rallied 300 points on Friday on the weaker than expected NFP data, yesterday the market closed 126 points lower. The Dow has lagged the S&P’s entire advance since May 12 and this feels like an upward correction and a rather painful one for anyone caught short. If the Dow can break and close below 34334 it would solidify this opinion. The Dow has resistance from 34820/34980 where I will be a seller with a 35105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 34180/34350 buy level unchanged with the same 34045 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan did not work well as the NASDAQ rallied over 300 points off Friday morning’s low print. This move higher had me short at an average rate of 13660 before stopping me out at last night’s close of 13805 and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 13880/13980 with a 14065 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13810. The NASDAQ has support from 13500/13600 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 13425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13670.
September BUND
I have now rolled to the September Contract which trades at a 163 point Premium to the June Contract. The September Contract has support from 170.70/171.15 where I will be a small buyer with a 170.35 stop. We have resistance from 172.20/172.70 where I will be a seller with a 173.15 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustrating, Gold missed my 1853 buy level with a 1855 low print before rallying over $45 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1860/1875 with a 1849 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 27.40 long Silver position worked well with the market rallying to my 27.65 T/P level on Friday and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 26.90/27.50 with a tight 26.55 stop.
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