U.S. Indexes closed lower sold on Tuesday, with the NASDAQ 100 the clear underperformer as Technology led the downside, particularly across Semiconductor and memory names. The primary catalyst was Samsung’s preliminary Q2 earnings, which disappointed lofty investor expectations and prompted a reassessment of valuations following the recent rally in the memory sector. Industrials also lagged, with sharp weakness in GE Vernova (GEV) weighing on the AI theme given its exposure to supplying power infrastructure for energy-intensive data centres. Energy was the clear outperforming sector as crude prices moved higher on renewed geopolitical tensions. Iran attacked commercial vessels from Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the Strait of Hormuz, before the US later responded by revoking Iran’s General License X, which had allowed the country to produce, deliver and sell energy products. The announcement came late in the session and sparked another leg higher in crude prices after the energy settlement. The late oil rally also weighed on broader risk sentiment. Equity futures, which had been paring earlier losses, moved lower once again, while Treasury yields rose across the curve as higher energy prices reignited inflation concerns. Treasuries also faced some technical pressure during the session as Amazon (AMZN) launched an eight-part bond offering reportedly targeting around USD 25 billion, with associated rate-lock hedging likely contributing to the weakness. Meanwhile, the USD 58 billion 3-year Treasury auction was met with very strong demand, although it generated little market reaction. In FX, the Dollar found support following the geopolitical developments, while the Swiss Franc and the antipodean currencies underperformed. Precious metals extended their declines as the stronger Dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed on Gold and Silver. Elsewhere, the US trade deficit widened largely as expected, while the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations rising alongside an improvement in perceptions of the labour market. New York Fed President Williams reiterated that forward guidance is not appropriate given the current level of uncertainty, echoing recent comments from Chair Warsh. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.2ppts to 3.7% in June, the highest since September 2023, while three-year inflation expectations also increased by 0.2ppts to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored. Elsewhere, consumers expected slower gasoline price growth, with expectations falling 3.5ppts to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. Labour market perceptions improved, with the perceived probability of losing a job over the next year falling to 14.1% from 15.1%, while the perceived probability of finding a new job after losing one’s current job rose to 44.9% from 43.7%. Household financial perceptions also improved, with fewer respondents reporting their financial situation had deteriorated over the past year, although expectations for future credit availability weakened slightly, with more respondents expecting it to become harder to obtain credit over the next 12 months. Fed Member Williams said the US economy continues to grow at a steady trend-like pace, with the labour market remaining stable and risks to employment broadly balanced. He reiterated that monetary policy is well-positioned to achieve the Fed’s goals and emphasised that future policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data and the evolving balance of risks, adding that explicit forward guidance is not appropriate given the current uncertainty. On inflation, Williams noted that while price pressures remain too high, he is becoming more optimistic about the near-term outlook as declining energy prices should help cool inflation further. He also suggested the economy is likely near the peak impact of tariffs on inflation. Looking further ahead, Williams expects strong investment in AI to continue, supporting the economy over time. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 3% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 0.4%.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 672 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1969 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.45% lower at a price of 7503.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points lower for a 0.25% loss at a price of 52,925.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.77% lower at a price of 29,173.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.65% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.48% lower at a price of 67,245.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.18% lower at $1.1415.
The British Pound closed 0.12% lower at $1.3360.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $162.13.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.85%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points higher at 3.00%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.52%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.76% higher at $70.44 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.37% lower at $4141.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications and Wholesale Trade at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the FOMC Minutes.
Cash S&P 500
I am still flat as frustratingly the S&P missed my 7540-sell level by two Handles before falling 50 Handles on the escalation of the worsening ceasefire in Iran. Today, I will lower my sell level to 7530/7555 with a lower 7573 ‘Closing Stop. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a move lower to 7410/7435 with a tight 7389 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7505. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7463. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways price action continues. I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. The Dollar has support below from 99.90/100.60 where I will be a buyer with a 99.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 101.20.
Russell 2000
The Russell just missed Tuesday’s sell range before selling off into the close. Today, I will lower my sell level to 3010/3090 with a lower 3155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2960.
FTSE 100
My FTSE plan worked well as after the market hit my 10710-sell level we sold off to my revised 10658 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10700/10780 with the same 10855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10630.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 53300-sell level before selling off to my 52910 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 53250/53550 with the same 53805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52910. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 29070 average long position before rallying to my revised 29230 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has short-term support below from 28600/28800 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 20395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29050.
December BUND
Bond Yields rose across the board on Tuesday. The subsequent sell-off in the Bund saw the market hit my 125.90 buy level. I am still long with a lower 126.55 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 125.20 while leaving my 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below at 3970/4070. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 3855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4140.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as after the market hit my 59.60 buy level we rallied to my revised 60.30 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 56.00/59.00 with a lower 53.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 61.15.
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