U.S. Indexes closed lower sold on Tuesday, with the NASDAQ 100 the clear underperformer as Technology led the downside, particularly across Semiconductor and memory names. The primary catalyst was Samsung’s preliminary Q2 earnings, which disappointed lofty investor expectations and prompted a reassessment of valuations following the recent rally in the memory sector. Industrials also lagged, with sharp weakness in GE Vernova (GEV) weighing on the AI theme given its exposure to supplying power infrastructure for energy-intensive data centres. Energy was the clear outperforming sector as crude prices moved higher on renewed geopolitical tensions. Iran attacked commercial vessels from Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the Strait of Hormuz, before the US later responded by revoking Iran’s General License X, which had allowed the country to produce, deliver and sell energy products. The announcement came late in the session and sparked another leg higher in crude prices after the energy settlement. The late oil rally also weighed on broader risk sentiment. Equity futures, which had been paring earlier losses, moved lower once again, while Treasury yields rose across the curve as higher energy prices reignited inflation concerns. Treasuries also faced some technical pressure during the session as Amazon (AMZN) launched an eight-part bond offering reportedly targeting around USD 25 billion, with associated rate-lock hedging likely contributing to the weakness. Meanwhile, the USD 58 billion 3-year Treasury auction was met with very strong demand, although it generated little market reaction. In FX, the Dollar found support following the geopolitical developments, while the Swiss Franc and the antipodean currencies underperformed. Precious metals extended their declines as the stronger Dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed on Gold and Silver. Elsewhere, the US trade deficit widened largely as expected, while the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations rising alongside an improvement in perceptions of the labour market. New York Fed President Williams reiterated that forward guidance is not appropriate given the current level of uncertainty, echoing recent comments from Chair Warsh. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.2ppts to 3.7% in June, the highest since September 2023, while three-year inflation expectations also increased by 0.2ppts to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored. Elsewhere, consumers expected slower gasoline price growth, with expectations falling 3.5ppts to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. Labour market perceptions improved, with the perceived probability of losing a job over the next year falling to 14.1% from 15.1%, while the perceived probability of finding a new job after losing one’s current job rose to 44.9% from 43.7%. Household financial perceptions also improved, with fewer respondents reporting their financial situation had deteriorated over the past year, although expectations for future credit availability weakened slightly, with more respondents expecting it to become harder to obtain credit over the next 12 months. Fed Member Williams said the US economy continues to grow at a steady trend-like pace, with the labour market remaining stable and risks to employment broadly balanced. He reiterated that monetary policy is well-positioned to achieve the Fed’s goals and emphasised that future policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data and the evolving balance of risks, adding that explicit forward guidance is not appropriate given the current uncertainty. On inflation, Williams noted that while price pressures remain too high, he is becoming more optimistic about the near-term outlook as declining energy prices should help cool inflation further. He also suggested the economy is likely near the peak impact of tariffs on inflation. Looking further ahead, Williams expects strong investment in AI to continue, supporting the economy over time. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 3% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 0.4%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 672 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1969 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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