Markets remain remarkably range bound awaiting the EU Summit. Not that there is much expectation of a plausible outcome any longer. Random headlines are causing rapid moves but few are sustained and developments have shown you should not react to all the headlines. The news that Merkel refused to accept joint liability in her lifetime sent the EUR lower but this proved to be a misquote and a flippant remark. There is likely to be more ‘off the record’ comments over the next two days.
In the US there was news that the fiscal cliff could be moved out to March 2013 which would include both the automatic spending cuts and the Bush tax cuts. Consumer Confidence came in worse than expected but the market, having dropped initially to my buy level in the S&P, rebounded nicely. Japan passes the Sales Tax increase from 5% to 10% by Oct 2015. Greece appoints a new Finance Minister, Stoumas – a credible candidate. Today we have US Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales.
Sept S&P 500
After the release of the Consumer Confidence the S&P dropped down to my buy level at 1304 and then traded all the way up to my sell level of 1318 and I am now flat. Expect more of the same as I said yesterday I expect the market to squeeze higher into the Summit. Today I will look to go long from 1306/1310 with a 1299 stop and I will look to sell from 1321/1325 with a 1327 stop.
August Crude Oil
I am still long from yesterday and I still think we are putting in a reasonable bottom to the market between 7700/7850. I will still look to take profit on my 7850 long from 7970/8000 and if I am taken out I will look to reset from 7800/7850. I am only trading in small size and I will leave a stop on any new long position at 7740.
Sept DAX
Very quiet ahead of the Summit and I still want to go short from 6220/6240 with a tight 6265 stop. If I am taken short I will look to take profit in front of 6150.
Sept EURO
The Euro is extremely rangebound and I use the same levels as yesterday to go short from 1.2535/1.2580 in small size with a 1.2600 stop. I will also look to buy from 1.2420/1.2440 with a 1.2395 stop.
Sept FTSE
I still have the same position long from 5420. I will look to exit in front of 5450 and I will raise my stop to 5410. I want to be flat ahead of the Summit.
Again thanks for your levels, enjoyed Friday last in office, hope they treated you well in Galway on Saturday! Jack.