U.S. Indexes lower again on Wednesday as higher oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on sentiment. The Russell was the laggard, while the equal-weight S&P declined by 1%. The majority of sectors were also lower, with Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate underperforming, while Energy was the only sector to close higher amid a roughly USD 3/bbl rise in WTI. Technology and Communication Services also outperformed but still closed marginally lower. Regarding stock specifics, the Apple (AAPL) event was in focus, where the Company unveiled the foldable iPhone, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, A20 Pro chip, AirPods 5, Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4. Shares were sold throughout the event before paring losses once it concluded, with the stock closing lower by 0.3%, well off its earlier lows. Energy prices were buoyed by geopolitical escalations, with the US and Iran striking tankers overnight, while Iran also targeted US bases in the region, helping Brent reclaim USD 100/bbl. Treasury yields were firmer across the curve as oil prices rose, although the majority of the move occurred after the US Treasury’s buyback announcement for Thursday’s 10–20-year operation. Treasury announced it will purchase a maximum of USD 6 billion of 10–20-year coupons, disappointing the market. Many had been expecting between USD 4-6 billion, although some expectations were as high as USD 10 billion. The announcement saw yields rise, supported the Dollar, and weighed on stocks and Gold. The subsequent cheapening in Treasuries provided additional concession ahead of the 10-year auction, which ultimately saw a very strong reception. The auction stopped through the WI by 1.5bps, the largest stop-through since April 2025, while dealer participation was exceptionally low as both direct and indirect demand improved. In FX, the Japanese Yen was supported by punchy commentary around intervention from US Treasury Secretary Bessent overnight, while the New Zealand Dollar lagged once again. The Canadian Dollar was hit despite rising oil prices as trade tensions with the US continue to mount after the US announced on Tuesday it will ban imports of some Canadian alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles. The Dollar was little changed overall, although it moved off lows after the Treasury’s buyback announcement lifted yields. Gold prices were bid and headed into APAC trade around USD 4,400/oz, off earlier highs of USD 4,435/oz. The precious metal was initially pressured by the rise in yields and the Dollar following the buyback announcement before chopping into the close. Attention now turns to the US PPI report on Thursday, alongside the ECB rate decision and Treasury’s 10–20-year buyback operation. The highlight of the week will likely be the US CPI report on Friday, which will help further shape Fed rate expectations ahead of next week’s meeting. Markets currently assign a 60% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 4% while Gold ended a volatile session unchanged.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 490 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1300 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at a price of 7636.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 405 points lower for a 0.77% loss at a price of 52,380.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.29% lower at a price of 29,421.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.41% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.04% lower at 65,119.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.13% higher at $1.1639.
The British Pound closed 0.14% higher at $1.3559.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.48% closing at $153.49.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points higher at 5.19%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points higher at 3.44%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.84%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.86% higher at $96.62 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.21% higher at $4396.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of Final German CPI which rose 2.9% Y/Y versus +2.8% expected. Next, we have the ECB Rate Announcement at 1.15 pm followed by the Lagarde Press Conference at 1.45 pm. In between at 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and PPI. This is followed by Existing Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks finished Wednesday’s trading session lower, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.4%, but the decline was probably worse than the Index suggests, since the RSP ETF fell nearly 1% while Meta rose more than 6.5%, offsetting some of the weakness. The technicals reveal just about everything we need to know. The 7,630 level has been strong support, largely because a high level of ‘’Option Gamma’’ sits there. Once that option gamma is gone, the Index could start to slip more quickly toward 7,600. But after that, there is nothing underneath until 7,500, which could come quickly if we were to gap lower at the open following this afternoon’s PPI Report. So, the S&P has put itself in a vulnerable position, and the downside could become a slippery slope. With a number of macro headwinds currently in place, any one of them could be the trigger event at this point. Interest Rates are one of those headwinds, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving above 4.8% and closing at its highest level since November 2023, at nearly 4.85%. A move up to 5% does not seem so unrealistic at this point. Meanwhile, USD/JPY strengthened a bit more over the past 24 hours, but it still has some breathing room, with support firmly around 152.25. A break of that support would likely push USD/JPY lower, perhaps into the upper 140s, which could start to weigh on risk assets globally. WTI easily broke through resistance at $94 and is now above its upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI scraping up against 70. It may be positioning itself to consolidate for a few days, but I think WTI ultimately heads higher, with the potential to reach $101. After the S&P hit my 7640 initial buy level the market rallied to my revised 7655 T/P level and I am now flat. Although the S&P sold off into the close some that move has been reversed with the market trading at 7658 this morning. The S&P has short-term support from 7590/7615 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 7569 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my sell level to 7705/7730 with a lower 7751 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7643. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7679. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: The boring sideways price action for the Euro continues making it extremely difficult to make points on this contract. The Euro has short-term support from 1.1460/1.1540. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also rase my sell level to 1.1690/1.1760 with a higher 1.1835 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1605. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1630.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 99.05 with the same 96.95 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 99.40 and reassess if executed. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell was weak yesterday. I am still flat as the market just missed my buy range. Ahead of PPI today and CPI tomorrow, I will now lower my buy range to 2810/2880 with a lower 2755 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2930.
FTSE 100
The FTSE was weak yesterday, which is no surprise with 10 Year Gilts hitting a multi-year high at 5.2%. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 10670 average long position. I will leave my 10555 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 10730. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market hit my 52450-buy level before rallying this morning to my revised 52620 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has now fallen over 1100 points this week and is close to an oversold reading. The Dow has short-term support from 52020/52320 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 51795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 52580. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well. After the NDX hit my 29320-buy level the market rallied to my revised 29490 T/P level and I am now flat. With PPI due this afternoon we should start to see volatility pick up especially if inflation comes in hotter than expected. The NDX has strong support below from 28860/29060 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 28695 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29250. I am still flat. I still believe that higher Interest Rates will eventually affect tech stocks.
December BUND
With Bund yields rising by seven basis points to a new year-to-date high the Bund got hit hard. This move lower saw my 121.40 buy level triggered. I am still long with a now lower 121.90 T/P level. I will add to this position at 120.60 while leaving my 119.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold reversed most of Tuesday’s late sell-off by rallying $80 at one point before having a small sell-off into the New York close. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4250/4320 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4395. I still believe that lower prices are ahead. TBD. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Ahead of the ECB and U.S. PPI, I will leave my buy level unchanged at 61.20/64.20 with the same 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 65.60.
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