U.S. Indexes closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones lagging while the equal-weight S&P fell by around 1%, with the majority of sectors also in the red. Energy, Utilities and Real Estate closed higher, while Health Care, Financials and Materials lagged. Crude prices chopped throughout the session but ultimately settled in the green. Oil was initially supported by comments from the Saudi Energy Minister that a number of energy facilities and utilities had been hit, temporarily halting some operations. However, crude later moved off its highs after the Qatari Foreign Ministry said it is working with regional partners and China to resume talks between the US and Iran. Post-settlement, Oil moved higher again on reports of explosions at Kharg Island, followed by reports that the US had attacked a “small” Iranian oil tanker. Further choppy trade followed after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had launched an undisclosed second wave of attacks on US Navy ships, although none were struck. In FX, the Yen continued to outperform while the NZD lagged. The Canadian Dollar found some support from firmer oil prices, although ongoing trade tensions with the US limited gains. The Dollar was little changed. Treasuries largely tracked moves in oil prices, with yields ultimately settling higher across the curve. The 3-year auction was solid, although not particularly strong despite the higher outright yield on offer versus August. Attention remains firmly on this week’s US inflation data, with PPI due Thursday and CPI on Friday. The data highlight on Tuesday was the New York Fed SCE report, which saw inflation expectations little changed, while perceptions of the labour market deteriorated, albeit consumers saw a lower risk of losing their own jobs. Gold prices were hit amid the higher-yield environment, with attention turning to Friday’s US CPI report for further direction on September Fed expectations, with money markets currently assigning around a 60% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 0.5%.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 810 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.58% lower at a price of 7673.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 628 points lower for a 1.18% loss at a price of 52,786.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 29,507.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.05% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.19% lower at 64,142.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.28% lower.
The Euro closed 0.04% lower at $1.1621.
The British Pound closed 0.03% lower at $1.3533.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $154.36.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 5.10%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.37%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.80%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.57% higher at $92.92 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.50% lower at $4385.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have a 10-year German Bund Auction at 10.30 am followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year Treasury Auction and speech from ECB President Lagarde with both due at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed lower by 0.6% on Tuesday, hardly an exciting move. Given where the Index stands, there is not much to say unless it breaks below 7,600. For now, it could remain range-bound or potentially retest the highs. If this market calm persists. Volatility was largely a nonfactor yesterday. However, as I have said many times, it remains very low, especially when looking at implied correlations. At this point, a macro shock—or simply a couple of days of selling pressure on the Index—could trigger a sharp, rapid increase in volatility. One thing to watch is oil volatility; if it starts rising, it could pull the VIX higher. Meanwhile, WTI crude appeared to break through resistance at $93, potentially clearing the way for a surge back to $101. An ascending triangle pattern also appears to have formed, supporting the bullish case for a move to $100 or higher. Higher oil prices will likely push the 2-year Treasury yield higher as well. Oil prices and the 2-year yield have trended together over time, and I don’t see why that would change now. I think we’re in the part of the cycle where front-end rates rise faster than long-end rates as the market begins to price in the potential for Fed rate hikes. Finally, USD/JPY has broken below support at 155 and is now threatening to fall toward its next support region around 152. A stronger Yen will eventually pose a problem for markets, especially if it begins to weigh on Japanese equity prices. More importantly, yen strength has led to increased volatility across global markets in recent years. Today, I will raise my buy level to 7615/7640 with a higher 7597 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also lower my sell level to 7725/7750 with a lower 7771 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7663. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7703.
EUR/USD
No Change: The boring sideways price action for the Euro continues making it extremely difficult to make points on this contract. The Euro has short-term support from 1.1460/1.1540. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also rase my sell level to 1.1690/1.1760 with a higher 1.1835 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1605. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1630.
Dollar Index
This morning the Dollar traded lower to my second buy level at 98.70 for a now 99.05 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 99.50 while leaving my 96.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as the Russell never came close to yesterday’s buy range. The Russell has short-term support below from 2830/2910. I will leave my buy level unchanged with the same 2775 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2960.
FTSE 100
Just like the Euro above the FTSE continues to trade in narrow ranges and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 10640/10720 with a higher 10555 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10780.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat the Dow and reluctant to chase the market higher especially as we are now in September which traditionally is the weakest month of the year. Today, I will lower my buy level to 52220/52520 with the same 52055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 52830.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. I still believe that higher Interest Rates will eventually affect tech stocks. TBD. However, I am afraid to go short as every dip no matter what the news the market is consistently bought. Today, I will raise my buy level to 29150/29350 with the same 28995 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29510. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
The Bund continues to trade in narrow ranges despite Bund Yields at their highest levels in many years. I am still flat. The Bund has support from 120.80/121.50 where I will continue to be an aggressive buyer with the same 119.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 122.15.
Gold Rolling Contract
With Tuesday been one of the quietest trading sessions for the year-to-date as little or no price action is seen across all asset classes. This is extremely frustrating but with CPI and PPPI still to come this week hopefully we will start to get some strong two-way price action for the rest of the month. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 4250/4320 with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4395. I still believe that lower prices are ahead. TBD. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my buy level unchanged at 61.20/64.20 with the same 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 65.60.
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