Yesterday was a trading session of relative flatness in European and US equity markets despite the softer US economic data while Commodities had a mixed session with WTI Oil the standout performer closing up $1.53 to $44.16 and well above the post Doha talks at just over $36. The move in oil seems to have been enough to lend some support to the commodity currencies with the AUD recovering to trade at 0.7750. Iron ore fell for the second consecutive trading session closing down another $3.29 aided perhaps by a reported clamp down in China on speculative trading. Meanwhile Base Metals and Gold were little changed.
To mark my 1050th issue of Tradernoble Platinum Service I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1890 points for April, having made 2265 points in each of the previous two months after a record 3365 points in January. Since I started this service last June it has made over 23,500 points.
Both key US data releases, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence, were a little softer than expected, though the confidence report from the Conference Board did also report its Labour Net Plentiful Index is improving further in April. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP/Now estimate for Q1 GDP ahead of its release on Thursday was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.3% thanks to higher estimates of residential investment and inventories offsetting softer business equipment investment.
US Treasury Yields again rose with 10s up another 1.6bps to 1.94% with the huge 2.0% resistance level now in sight. Fed Funds Futures Rate are now fully priced for one rate hike by year-end and one more for next year, still well shy of the FOMC’s March dot plot median expectation of two more this year.
Sterling appears to building a base of support with the ‘remainers’ doing better in the ‘Brexit’ polls as ‘project fear’ campaign builds some momentum. Voters though seemed to take some umbrage at President Obama’s invention into the debate during his recent visit, as a very recent poll showed ‘remainers’ dipped by 2 points if still ahead by 51% to 43% for ‘leavers’.
This morning on the economic front we have German GIFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. This is followed at 9.30 am by UK GDP. At 11.00 am we have the US CBI Reported Sales. Next we have the US Trade Balance at 1.30 pm while at 3.00 pm we have US Pending Home Sales. Finally at 7.00 pm we have the FOMC Statement and Rate decision. There will be a lot of interest to see how much the Fed dial back their global risk assessment and how much to look through the Q1 slowdown given continued resilience in the labour market. There is no press conference and the market will want to know whether June is live, semi-alive or unlikely for the next rate hike.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market traded lower after lunch to my 2080 buy level before having a nice rally to 2089 which enabled me to cover this position too early at 2083.50 as I had too many open positions at that time and I am now flat. The easiest money to be made is always in the week of an FOMC Meeting because if you keep buying the dip ahead of this announcement you will nearly always be rewarded as shown again by the points made on my Platinum Service since last Friday. As usual I will stay flat today until we get the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm. If the market sells off I will then look to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2064/2069 with a 2057 stop. My only interest in selling the S&P is still on a rally higher to 2103/2110 with a 2115 stop.
EUR/USD
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1190/1.1230 with a 1.1145 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
No change as I am still only a seller on any rally higher to 95.30/95.60 with the same 96.00 stop. April has probably been the quietest month for trading the Euro and the Dollar Index in a long time.
June DAX
My DAX plan also worked well with the DAX trading lower to my average buy level at 10280 before eventually following the S&P higher which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 10310 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 10190/10240 with a 10130 stop. Despite the negative price action this week I still do not want to be short the market especially if we can continue to build a base above 10200.
June FTSE
No change as I am still long at 6240 from Monday with the same 6195 stop and 6260 T/P level.
Dow Rolling Contract
Unfortunately the Dow just missed my 17920 buy level with a 17932 low print before as expected rallying back above 18000 and I am still flat. Today my only interest in buying the Dow is on a dip lower to 17800/17860 with a 17740 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time especially as the weaker Dollar is helping the Dow stocks outperform.
June BUND
The Bund has had a bad week with the market well off its highs following last week’s ECB Meeting and I am still flat. Today I will now lower my sell level to 162.30/162.70 with a tight 163.05 stop/
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1226 buy level with a 1230 low print and I am still flat. Today I will move my buy level slightly higher to 1220/1228 with a 1213 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
As I want to be flat Silver ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting I decided to cover my latest long 16.80 position at 17.05 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 16.50/16.90 with a 16.10 stop.
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