U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 underperforming, while sectors saw an upward bias; Industrials, Technology, Financials, and Energy were in the red, with Health outperforming and buoyed by Moderna surging in excess of 165% after a cancer breakthrough drug trial with Merck. Nonetheless, the main story on Wednesday was the US Treasury announcing it is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities, from the current USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Following this update, US Treasury yields fell, particularly in the long end, while the Dollar saw notable pressure. Given this, all G10 FX peers gained versus the Greenback, with the Swiss Franc outperforming. WTI and Brent eked out slight strength as a US/Iran deal seems no closer, although geopolitical newsflow was light on Wednesday. There was no US data or Fed speak, and the latest FOMC Minutes were largely as expected with few shocks (review below). Precious metals surged on the aforementioned news, while crypto saw a rally through the US session. The FOMC Minutes were largely as expected, as they noted that most participants at the July confab supported keeping interest rates unchanged, while several favoured an increase, as we know due to the three hawkish dissenters. Within those dissenters, a few participants judged doing so would likely help forestall the need for further hikes. Most participants assessed higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall, but that is a pretty consensus view given recent rhetoric and the importance the Committee have stressed of getting inflation back to target. Almost all FOMC members agreed it was appropriate to retain the policy statement affirming FOMC ‘will deliver price stability’, but no caveat was issued into what the others saw or the reasoning. Fed staff economic outlook showed inflation outlook was similar to one prepared for June meeting, but economic outlook was ‘a touch weaker’. On the meeting schedule, Chairman Warsh said six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings, but no decision was made and Warsh indicated no change to the 2026 schedule. All in all, the latest Minutes were dwarfed by recent data, which has no doubt been dovish and shifted money market pricing to favour a hold instead of a hike. One of the unknowns remains the US/Iran war. Nonetheless, Pantheon Macroeconomics notes, as things stand, it is unlikely any other FOMC members will be joining the three hawks, and they continue to think that a majority of members will vote to keep policy unchanged through the fall and winter, as the labour market stays weak and domestically-generated inflation continues to cool. Elsewhere, Gold surged, ending Wednesday’s session with a 3.64% gain while Oil was flat.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 25 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1885 points for August after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments