In yesterday’s markets, we have seen the US stock market’s crown slipping a little largely thanks to lower oil hitting the energy and materials sectors (crude is off just under $1). Consumer discretionary stocks are down even more and which may owe something to the disappointing Consumer Conference reading. The Conference Board’s version fell to 98.6 from a downward revised 103.5, against expectations for much smaller fall to 101.5. Evidence of pre-election inertia perhaps? The S&P is closing down 0.3%.
To mark my 1200th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested can they please contact me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 104 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1169 points for October having made 1142 points in September. The previous three months saw gains of 1782, 1682 and 2550 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points.
In currencies, it’s the Aussie dollar (up) and Sterling (down) that are the standouts. After yesterday’s ‘limit up’ move on the Dalian futures exchange, the benchmark China iron ore import price has jumped $2.68 to $61.96, its highest since late August. Steaming coal also pushed ahead, up another $2 and while coking coal didn’t trade Tuesday, it added $4.50 on Monday. Terms of trade tailwinds thus continue to support the AUD on the crosses, at the same time that general US Dollar strength is limiting gains versus the USD.
GBP/USD meanwhile has – with the exclusion of the 7 October ‘flash crash’ session – made new post-referendum low at $1.2083, only pulling back late in the London session after BoE Governor Mark Carney said there were limits to the extent to which the Bank could look though higher – GBP induced – inflation. A further rate cut from the BoE before year end is now quite unlikely in my view. Sterling’s recovery brought the US Dollar off its earlier highs and which had seen the narrow DXY index trade to within 0.7% of its 29 January YTD highs.
This morning on the economic front we have the German GIK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. This is followed at 9.30 am by UK BBA Loans for House Purchase. At 1.30 pm we have US Trade and Wholesale Inventories. Finally we have Markit US Services/Composite PMI and New Home Sales at 2.45 pm and 3.00 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
Yesterday was one of the quietest trading sessions of the year to date with the S&P giving up some of its gains posted on Monday which is unusual to say the least for a Tuesday which has generally been an”up-day” for the past three years. The S&P having traded lower to my 2137 initial buy level before having a small rally to 2141. As we had a nice trading session despite the low volatility I emailed my Platinum Members to exit this position for a small gain at 2139 and I am now flat. With the various oscillations over the past few weeks the 100 Day Moving Average and key trend-line have now moved to 2138/2140, which shows why a break and close over the 2142 level that I mentioned on Monday is critical. As I am still flat the S&P my only interest in buying the market is on a further dip lower to 2125/2130 with a 2120 stop which is just below last Friday’s 2123 low print. Given the fact that the US Election is less than two weeks away I do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the Euro trading lower to my 1.0855 buy level shortly after lunch before having a nice 40 point rally which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 1.0884 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro is still extremely oversold on all my technical indicators and today I will again look to buy the market on any further dip to 1.0830/1.0870 with a wider 1.0795 stop.
December Dollar Index
My Dollar plan also worked well with the Dollar trading higher to my 99.05 sell level before having a nice sell-off to below 98.60 and this sell-off enabled me to cover this short position at my revised 98.80 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Dollar on any rally higher to 99.00/99.30 with the same 99.65 stop.
December DAX
The DAX traded heavy for most of yesterday’s trading session as the market for a fourth consecutive trading day closed over 10680. I am still flat the DAX and today I will lower my buy level slightly to 10610/10660 with a 10560 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this stage.
December FTSE
My long 6955 FTSE position from late Monday worked well yesterday with the market trading to a 7038 high print on the aggressive sell-off in Sterling. This rally higher enabled me to cover my long position at my 6985 T/P level and I am still flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 6890/6925 with a 6860 stop which is just below the two month important trend-line support at 6880. Given the continuing weaker Sterling I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my 18130 buy level yesterday before rallying and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level again to 18000/18065 with a 17945 stop. The main reason I have lowered my buy level is the move back into negative territory for the McClellan Oscillator which closed with a -21 print from a +14 print on Monday.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund and today I will leave my buy level unchanged at 163.00/163.40 with a 162.70 stop which is just below the October lows at 162.81/162.86.
Gold Rolling Contract
Unfortunately Gold just missed my buy level again yesterday and I am still flat. Since Gold broke the key 1280/1300 support level three weeks ago Gold has traded to a 1242 low print before trying to rally back to the breakdown level at 1280. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 1250/1259 with a 1243 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my 17.45 buy level with a 17.47 low print before trying to rally again. Just like Gold above once Silver broke its 18.00/18.20 support level the market has traded sideways in what has been the quietest three period for Silver all year. Today I will raise my buy level to 17.35/17.65 with a higher 16.95 stop.
Following the success of the NFP Live Trading Day and Education Session in London on September 2, Paul Wallace and I are bringing this event to Dublin for the December NFP day on Friday December 2nd. If anyone is interested in attending this event the details are on the following link:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/live-nfp-trading-day-dublin-tickets-28159689389
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