Tuesday was a risk-off session with U.S. Indexes lower across the board. The NASDAQ 100 was the clear laggard while the Dow Jones outperformed, reflecting continued pressure on Technology and AI-related names. Gains in IBM buoyed the Dow after receiving an upgrade at JPM and positive commentary from President Trump on quantum computing and IBM stock. The primary driver of the weakness was another round of selling in semiconductor and memory stocks, with both the Semiconductor ETF and Memory ETF posting notable losses as some of 2026’s best-performing trades continued to unwind. The weakness followed a sharp decline in South Korean equities overnight, where both SK Hynix and Samsung came under heavy pressure, contributing to a more cautious tone across the global technology sector. While there was no obvious headline catalyst, the move may reflect profit-taking and positioning adjustments following the sector’s powerful rally earlier this year, particularly after last week’s hawkish FOMC decision pushed Treasury yields higher. Although the major Indices closed lower, sector performance was more mixed. Technology fell by over 3%, while Industrials and Materials also lagged. In contrast, the traditional defensive sectors outperformed, with Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Health Care and Utilities all finishing in positive territory. Crude prices extended their recent decline, with WTI briefly falling below USD 73.00/barrel and Brent dropping beneath USD 77.00/bbl. The continued weakness reflects easing geopolitical concerns following the US-Iran agreement and growing expectations that energy supplies will normalise as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Treasuries recovered some of Monday’s losses, with lower oil prices helping ease inflation concerns. The move was likely aided by some flight-to-quality demand as equities weakened, although yields remain elevated relative to levels seen prior to last week’s hawkish FOMC decision. In FX, traditional havens outperformed, with the Dollar and the Japanese Yen leading the G10 space. USD/JPY saw a sharp move lower during the European morning in the absence of any clear headline catalyst, although Citi’s FX desk estimated around USD 500 million traded during the move. US data was mixed. The weekly ADP employment measure rose from the prior week, while the S&P Global Flash PMI surveys beat expectations. However, the regional Fed surveys were softer, providing a more mixed picture of underlying activity. Elsewhere, the Treasury sold USD 69 billion of 2-year notes, with the auction stopping through for the first time since January 2026. The recent rise in front-end yields following the hawkish Fed decision appeared to support demand, resulting in a strong overall auction. Gold and Silver prices were lower as the Dollar rallied, which also pressured Bitcoin in the risk-off trade. S&P Global Flash PMIs for June were stronger than expected, with many of the figures hitting multi-month or year-highs. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 (exp. 54.7, prev. 55.1), a 49-month high. Services lifted to 51.3 (exp. 51, prev. 50.7), 4-month peak, leaving the Composite jumping to 52.2 from 51.5. Mfg. output jumped to a 59-month high of 57.7 from May’s 56.6. The survey signalled that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualised rate in Q2. Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector. However, the report adds, while still running at one of the highest rates seen over the past four years, input cost inflation has shown signs of cooling in June, thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period. Note, the data was collected between 11th and 22nd June. Elsewhere, both Gold and Oil closed lower by 1.5% and 1% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 380 points yesterday and is now ahead by 8987 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.44% lower at a price of 7365.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower for a 0.09% loss at a price of 51,666.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.29% lower at a price of 29,347.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.57% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% lower
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 3.55% lower at a price of 69,788.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.37% higher.
The Euro closed 0.41% lower at $1.1380.
The British Pound closed 0.47% lower at $1.3187.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.13% closing at $161.56.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points lower at 4.76%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.92%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.49%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.83% lower at $73.11 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.55% lower at $4125.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have the German IFO Business Survey at 9.00 am, followed by the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have Building Permits at 1.30 pm and New Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Five-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results at 9.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the consolidation patterns noted yesterday in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 breaking below the lower end of their recent trading ranges. Clearly, there will need to be follow-through to confirm the move. However, with Micron reporting earnings after the close this evening and the PCE report due on Thursday, I would not be surprised to see implied volatility continue to rise, and the indexes remain under pressure. The same occurred in the NASDAQ 100, which also fell sharply on the day by more than 3% and broke out of its consolidation phase. Tuesday’s move could very well be the start of something larger. The Indices have been driven higher by an extraordinary rally in semiconductor stocks, which have powered much of the advance. We also know that a significant portion of the move was driven by options flows, and who knows what role leveraged products may have played. The point is that the index can fall sharply if the stocks that drove it higher begin to fall sharply. And there is no way of knowing how far those stocks could decline because nobody really knows what they are worth. In fact, when someone argues that Micron trades on a low P/E ratio, that is usually the first warning sign that they do not really understand the stock or the sector. Meanwhile, the Dollar continues to show strength and has now easily cleared resistance. The only question that remains is whether the Dollar can break above 101.75. If that happens, there is room for it to move higher against the Euro, Pound, and Japanese Yen. I know that a stronger Dollar is supposed to tighten financial conditions, but so far we have not really seen that happen. To this point, cross-currency basis swaps have shown very little tightening, suggesting there has not been a meaningful increase in demand for Dollar hedges despite the Dollar’s strength. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P hit my second buy level at 7362 for a 7374 average position before rallying over 60 Handles. This move higher saw my revised 7407 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. The S&P has left a large ‘Open Gap’ from Monday 7472 Chicago close to yesterday’s 7424 rebound high. As we know all gaps eventually are filled. The 50 Day Moving Average for the S&P comes in at 7340 this morning. Today, I will be a strong buyer from 7328/7353 with a lower 7307 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7465/7490 where I will be a seller with a 7513 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7388. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7438.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.1460 with the same 1.1510 T/P level. I will also leave my 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. The 14-Day RSI close at an oversold 27 last night indicating that a rally should be close to starting. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to Tuesday’s buy range, trading at a price of 101.40 this morning. The Dollar has strong resistance from 101.80/102.60 where I will be a seller with a 103.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.20.
Russell 2000
My latest short 2990 Russell position worked well as the market sold off to my 2950 T/P level and I am now flat. The Russell has short-term resistance from 3010/3080 where I will again be a strong seller with a higher 3155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2960.
FTSE 100
In contrast to the American Index the FTSE rallied yesterday, closing higher by 0.3%. Lower Gilt Yields and an easing of political pressures help the FTSE’s cause on Tuesday. Today, I will raise my buy level to 10280/10350 with a higher 10205 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10420.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow was by far the strongest of the American Indexes over the past 24 hours. I will not chase the market lower despite both the NDX and S&P getting crushed yesterday. The Dow has short-term resistance from 52030/52330 where I will again be a seller with the same 52605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 51740. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat as the NDX never came close to Tuesday’s sell range. The NDX has support below from 28980/29180 where I will be a strong buyer with a 28695 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in selling the NDX is on a further rally to 30300/30500 with the same 30705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29450. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 30060.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. I have no interest in chasing the Bund higher from here, preferring to be a seller of further rallies. The Bund has short-term resistance from 127.30/128.10 where I will be a seller with a 128.85 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold from yesterday at a price of 4116. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 4020 with the same 3945 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 4185. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver got hit hard on Tuesday, closing lower by over 5%. This move lower saw the market hit my second buy level at 61.50 for a now 62.75 average long position. Silver has now fallen 50% from its $122 high in January while the RSI is oversold, closing at 30 last night. I will now lower my T/P level to 64.20 while leaving my 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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