Markets yesterday took their initial direction from the bombings in Brussels and the railway station, a catalyst for a mild risk-off market tone. Euro Bond markets were initially bid, with the Euro losing half a cent, while Sterling got hit hard on the fear that the bombings in Brussels would increase the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU. The AUD likewise initially lost ground but like most risk assets, that selling dissipated and was reversed for most risk assets with the BEL 20 ro-Belgium stock market closing 0.17% higher on the day having been lower earlier.
To mark my 1000th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Daily Commentary which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1965 points for March having made 2265 points in February and a record 3365 points in January. Since I started this service last June it has made over 21,500 points.
Helping markets recover after the initial sell-off was perhaps a little growth momentum comfort from the release of the preliminary March PMI’s for France, Germany, and the Euro-Zone that in their totality proved to be somewhat reassuring as did the German IFO Survey.
The French Markit Manufacturing PMI missed slightly at 49.6 from 50.2, but the Services and Composite Indexes were both better than expected. Germany’s set were almost unchanged which was expected, while for the Euro-Zone, the preliminary Manufacturing Services were all a little higher than in February. The German March IFO Business Survey outpaced expectations with the Current Assessment component up to 113.8, which was the highest reading since last September. This is a hint that – notwithstanding any fallout that yesterday’s tragic events might have on business and consumer confidence – growth momentum in the Euro-Zone’s largest economy ended the March Quarter at a stepped – up pace.
US data released yesterday was second tier, with the March Markit Manufacturing print virtually unchanged. Meanwhile the Richmond Fed regional manufacturing Index for March bounced up to 22 from -4.
In other news the Chicago Fed President who is also a non-voter this year has been speaking applauding the downshift in interest rate rises dot plot Fed forecasts for 2016 from four to two, and noting that the Fed’s wait and see monetary response is appropriate to ensure growth continues.
This morning we have no economic data of note due from the UK or the Euro-Zone. The US will release its MBA Mortgage Applications, and New Home Sales at 11.00 am and 2.00 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
I am still flat the S&P as I have no doubt the Central Banks intervened yesterday to make sure Equity Markets did not fall in the face of the horrific bomb attacks in Belgium. Today I will raise my buy level to 2028/2035 with a 2022 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Overnight the Euro traded lower to my 1.1180 buy level. I am still long and I will now raise my stop on this position to 1.1145.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will now lower my sell level to 96.30/96.70 with a 98.10 stop.
June DAX
The lower Euro is helping the DAX to rally strongly this morning and to me given the amount of tests that we have had at the 10100/10200 over the past week, it is only a matter of time before we break this key resistance. Today I will raise my buy level to 9980/10030 with a 9940 tight stop.
June FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and just like the other Indices I do not want to be short the market at this time. Today I will raise my buy level to 6085/6115 with a 6045 stop which is just below yesterday morning’s low print. The weaker Sterling should also help the FTSE going forward.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow and today I will raise my sell level to 17680/17740 with a 17790 stop.
June BUND
My Bund call worked well yesterday as after I posted the Bund traded higher to my 162.85 sell level before having a subsequent sell-off which enabled me to cover this position at my 162.45 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Bund on any rally higher to 162.70/163.00 with a 163.30 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has got hit hard overnight with the market eventually trading lower to my 1236 buy level. I am still long and I will leave my stop the same at a tight 1229.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long at 16.00 with the same 15.45 stop.
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