The August doldrums continue as these last 10 days have been the quietest for the markets all year. GDP for the Euro-Zone shrank 0.2% for the last quarter whilst Germany posted a better than expected growth of 0.3%. However it’s forward looking Sentiment Index slid for a 4th month running. On the positive side, Retail Sales in the US rose 0.8% in July, beating expectations after a 0.7% decrease in June. This advance is the largest since February and the first gain in 4 months. Stocks rose on this news only to sell off late in the day.
Later this morning, we have the BOE minutes and these will be closely watched to see whether there is more scope for QE. Later we have a lot of economic releases from the US including CPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation and Empire Manufacturing data. Hopefully these releases will lead to some market moves and an increase in volatility.
Sept S&P 500
The S&P had an initial spike on the back of the stronger than expected Retail Sales but the market had a weak close. It dropped down to my 1398 buy area but I did not like the close and I took a small profit at 1401. Today I will look to go long from 1394/1397 with a 1391 stop. If we break and close below 1391 it will be short term bearish and will probably lead to a test of the important 1377/1380 area. I will lower my sell area to the 1405/1409 with a stop at 1411 which is just above yesterdays high.
Sept BUND
The Bund dropped down to my buy area and I went long at 142.30. I will leave my stop at 141.95 and I will look to take profit on any move back to the 142.70/143.00 area.
Silver
I decided to close my long 27.90 position at 27.85 last night as I don’t like the price action and lack of follow through in the Gold market. I have had this position for over a week now and the lack of any move concerns me. I will stand aside and see how Silver trades over the next few days.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY just missed my buy level at 7830. I will leave my order at the same level as I do not want to chase the market here. A break and close over .7900 will be very positive.
EURO/USD
It is a long time since we have seen no movement in this very important currency pair. Perhaps today, after all of the economic news due later, we will see some market impetus. I want to stand aside, as I have no view here, and see how we trade over the next 24 hours.
Sept FTSE
Another market which has no momentum. I think the FTSE is trading heavy and I will be a small seller from 5850/5880 with a 5890 stop. If I am taken short I will look to take profit from 5790/5810.
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