U.S. Indexes rallied at Quarter-end as markets welcomed improved prospects for an end to the Middle East conflict. Reports overnight said Trump told aides he was willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz, while later reports said the administration could not promise to reopen the Strait and achieve its military objectives quickly. US President Trump also called on those who use the Strait to secure it themselves. Further optimism followed after the Iranian president said Iran was seeking no war but was prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks. The commentary triggered a cross-asset reaction, with energy prices falling, stocks rallying and T-notes gaining on reduced inflation fears. Optimism over this, together with quarter-end flows, weighed on the Dollar, although the Swiss Franc underperformed, with the Euro leading gains while USD/JPY fell further below 160. Gold and Silver prices rose as Bond Yields tumbled, while Bitcoin also advanced. Data took a back seat, but Consumer Confidence improved and JOLTS matched expectations after the prior reading was revised up. Fed’s Schmid was hawkish as usual, while Williams largely echoed Powell. Elsewhere, Marvell (MRVL) shares surged after it announced a partnership with Nvidia (NVDA), under which NVDA will invest USD 2 billion in the company. McCormick (MKC) was lower after it confirmed it is to merge with Unilever’s (ULVR LN) food business in a USD 45 billion deal. Job Openings in February fell to 6.8882 million from 7.24 million (revised from 6.946 million), slightly above the 6.85 million forecast. The vacancy rate fell to 4.2% from the upwardly revised 4.4%, while the Quits Rate fell to 1.9% from 2.0%. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that “The headline JOLTS job openings numbers are volatile and heavily revised, but we see no sign in this report that the labour market was regaining momentum before the Iran war”. The consultancy adds that “Even the relatively weak state of labour demand implied by the latest JOLTS openings numbers might still be overstating the strength of employment growth if openings fail to translate into hirings. The private sector hiring rate plunged to just 3.3% in February—the lowest since early 2010—from 3.7%.” Consumer confidence in March edged up to 91.8 from 91.0 in February, above the expected 88.0. The Present Situation index rose by 4.6 points to 123.3, while the Expectations Index declined by 1.7 points to 70.9. Note, the survey period for prelim results was March 1st-24th, and the reports notes while not obvious in the headline or its component indices, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations. Looking at the survey’s results, in the present situation, consumer views of current business conditions improved, while views of the labour market were virtually unchanged. Ahead, consumers were a tad less pessimistic about future business conditions, more negative about the labour market, and income prospects slightly less optimistic, likely due to the Iran war. Fed Member Williams said monetary policy is well positioned to handle unusual circumstances; he noted that the Iran conflict will likely lift inflation in coming months via higher energy and intermediate costs, while dampening activity. Williams expects growth around 2.5% this year (vs SEP median of 2.4%), inflation at 2.75% (vs SEP median of 2.7%) before returning to 2% next year (vs SEP median of 2.2%), and unemployment to ease. Williams did not signal any near-term policy change, but said risks to both inflation and employment have increased, echoing Chair Powell’s cautious wait-and-see stance. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.5% while Gold surged, ending Tuesday’s session with a 3.4% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 525 points yesterday to end March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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