U.S. Equity Markets continued their recent uptrend, closing the day higher after a sixth consecutive gain. The Russell 2000 led the market higher, finishing Monday with a gain of 2.53%. Stimulus was a big driver. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the increased spending that would happen if President Biden’s economic stimulus plan’s enacted would help the economy return to full employment by 2022. A strong earnings season was another tailwind. So far, 60% of the S&P 500 has reported. And S&P 500 companies are on track to grow their earnings for the first quarter since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Eighty-one percent of S&P 500 companies have surprised to the upside. If this strong season holds, it will be the second-highest amount of positive surprises since FactSet began tracking the data. Not much else moved the market. European Markets rose. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz called for increased spending on technology infrastructure and cleaner energy in the coming years in order to transform the economy. A University of Oxford study showed the COVID-19 vaccine it has jointly developed with drugmaker AstraZeneca demonstrated 75% efficacy against the U.K. variant. But South Africa halted use of the vaccine. Britain’s Vaccine Deployment Minister Nadhim Zahawi said there will likely be a Coronavirus vaccine booster this fall that turns into an annual shot. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 16.7 million yesterday, with a daily average of 637,000 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil continued its recent run, closing higher by 2.02% as growth optimism spurred a positive demand outlook for crude. Meanwhile. Bitcoin surged 18% to an all-time high on news that Tesla had bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency.
To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 675 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.74% higher at a price of 3915.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points higher for a 0.76% gain at a price of 31,385.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 13,695.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.4% higher at a price of 29,505.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.2070.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at $1.3771.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.5% higher at 105.05 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.48%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.02% higher at $57.89 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.08% higher at $1,832.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11.00 am. At 3.00 pm we have the JOLTS Job Openings. Finally, at 3.05 pm we have a speech from the ECB’s Lane.
March S&P 500
The Stock Market gapped higher at yesterday’s open carrying the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ Indexes to new all-time highs. In contrast to last week, market volume and Breadth expanded to the highest in five sessions while internally the market was strong as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed with a print of +156. Shortly after I posted yesterday the S&P traded lower to my 3888 T/P level on my latest 3896 short position. The S&P has left a gap from last Thursday at 3866 and this will be a target price if the market reverses over the coming days. The S&P rallied hard into the close and I am now short at my second sell level as emailed to my Platinum Members at 3909. I will add to this position at 3921 with a 3931 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 3899. I will also raise my buy level to 3854/3869 with a 3843 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3880. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
It looks like the recent low at 1.1950 is significant as most risk assets have surged over the past few days. This morning the Euro rallied to my 1.2085 sell level. As I no longer want to be short the Euro I have now exited this short position here at 1.2070 and I am now flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.2000/1.2050 with a higher 1.1945 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to my sell range yesterday with the market trading 50 points lower at 90.70. I will now lower my sell level to 91.00/91.50 with a wider 92.05 stop.
March DAX
No Change as I am still a seller on any further rally to 14205/14285 with the same 14355 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
The FTSE continues to struggle to rally which is no surprise given the fact that Sterling is trading at its higher level since 2018. I am not going to chase the market higher. Therefore, I will leave my 6370/6420 buy level unchanged with the same 6335 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the market traded I a narrow range for most of yesterday before rallying 100 points into the close. The Dow has strong resistance from 31530/31700 and I will continue to be a seller in this area with a 31845 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 30950/31100 with a 30825 stop.
March NASDAQ
I am still flat as the NASDAQ fell shy of my sell range despite the late rally. As I am now short the S&P, I will raise my NASDAQ sell level to 13750/13840 while leaving my stop unchanged at 13905.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund and today I will raise my buy level to 175.30/175.75 with a 174.95 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 176.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
The break and close below 1800 did not last and it looks like last week’s 1780 low print is one of significance with Gold bouncing off this support to trade at 1835 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1800/1815 with a 1789 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
We are seeing lots of two-way volatility in Silver after the market spiked above $30 last Monday. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 26.40/26.90 with a tight 25.85 stop.
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