With the US having a long weekend for Memorial Day and with the UK having its Spring Holiday, market liquidity was understandably thin, with limited interest in open FX, Oil and Gold markets that mostly market time. However Gold is firmer this morning having rebounded off the $1200 level tested early yesterday morning.
To mark my 1075th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1392 points for May having made 2175 points in April. The previous two months saw the same gain of 2265 points for both February and March following a record 3365 point gain in January. Since I started this Platinum Service last June it has made over 25,000 points.
As far as the Foreign Exchange markets were concerned, the US Dollar was a touch softer after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday in the warm after-glow of Fed Chair Yellen’s comments last Friday that, providing everything goes to plan, a rate rise would be likely ‘in the coming months’.
The FX moves over the past 24 hours were very modest with most currencies trading in just a 20/30 point range. Gold was the big mover with the market trading at 1202 when I posted yesterday morning to subsequently hit at 1217 high print overnight before easing back to currently sit at 1213. WTI and Brent also closed marginally higher at $49.60 and $49.75 respectively. The oil market is now quiet and measured ahead of Thursday’s OPEC Meeting that seems likely to soldier on with the market share defence strategy, especially now with higher oil prices and US Shale production falling back further. Meanwhile the Spot Iron ore price gave back $0.88 to $50.27 as we await tomorrow’s Chinese PMI releases and what the detail says about the conditions in the steel industry in May.
There was little data to speak of yesterday. The Euro-Zone Monthly Confidence Surveys came and went without and market fanfare, the key Business Climate Indicator in May ticking back up to the highest level since January, but at 0.26 still a little shy of last year’s 0.29 average. Germany’s preliminary May CPI reading showed the expected rebound, up 0.4% on the EU-harmonised measure after April’s 0.5% drop taking inflation to flat, which was up from -0.3%.
This morning on the economic front we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by the Euro-Zone Unemployment and CPI. At 1.30 pm we have US Personal Income and the PCE Deflator. Next we have the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Survey at 2.45 pm. Finally we have the Consumer Confidence Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 3.00 pm and 3.30 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
My short 2103 S&P position taken on Sunday night as finally worked out this morning with the S&P just after hitting my 2098 T/P level as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. There is no doubt the S&P is overbought and due a correction especially as I mentioned yesterday the market has a lot of resistance between 2100 and 2134 which is the record high. Today I will move my buy level slightly higher to 2084/2089 with a 2079 stop. I will also look to go short on any further move higher to 2108/2113 with a 2118 stop.
EUR/USD
My long 1.1120 Euro position worked out yesterday with the Euro hitting a high print of 1.1155 overnight and this has enabled me to cover this position at my revised 1.1140 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro will probably stay soft ahead of the ECB and Dragi press conference on Thursday. For this reason my only interest in buying the Euro is on a dip lower to 1.1070/1.1100 with a 1.1035 stop. Despite the negative price action I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
No change as I am still short the Dollar at 95.75 with the same 96.20 tight stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked out with the DAX hitting my 10370 sell level shortly after the market opened this morning. Unfortunately as I was already short the S&P I covered this position too early at 10350 and I am now flat. As I expect the DAX to stay reasonably firm ahead of the ECB on Thursday I will now raise my buy level to 10180/10240 with a 10130 stop. My only interest in selling the DAX is on a rally higher to 10390/10450 with a 10490 stop.
June FTSE
With the UK markets now re-opened after yesterday’s Spring Holiday I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 6205/6235 with a 6170 stop. Remember the 6200 level is now key support and I am happy to buy against this level with a tight stop. However a break and close below 6180 will see me turn bearish the FTSE again.
Dow Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 17970/18020 with the same 18080 wider stop to allow for the increased volatility. I will also look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 17740/17800 with a 17690 tight stop.
June BUND
I am still flat the Bund and today I will now lower my buy level to 162.80/163.10 with a 162.50 stop. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
In hindsight I should have just bought Gold yesterday especially given its set up on both the Daily Bollinger Band and Williams Index. Today I will now raise my buy level to 1196/1204 with a 1189 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long from last week at 16.15 with the same 15.55 stop. Again if I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 15.00/15.40 with a 14.60 stop.
Recent Comments