U.S. Indexes closed higher on Monday, with the NASDAQ outperforming and gaining more than 2% as Semiconductor stocks led the advance. The SOXX ETF posted strong gains after South Korea unveiled a USD 880 billion investment plan for its semiconductor and AI industries. Memory stocks initially weighed on sentiment, although the DRAM ETF recovered most of its early losses to finish only modestly lower. Sector performance was mixed but tilted firmly towards growth. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services led the gains, with the latter also supported by a sharp rally in Comcast (CMCSA) after the company announced plans to split into two publicly traded businesses by spinning off its media assets, including NBCUniversal and Sky. In FX, price action was largely driven by the improved risk backdrop. The Dollar weakened against most G10 peers, while the Japanese Yen underperformed as haven demand faded. Sterling outperformed after Burnham’s speech on the economy contained few major policy changes, helping reduce some of the uncertainty surrounding the UK political outlook. Energy prices rose on renewed geopolitical tensions after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend targeting assets in the Gulf. Markets also digested conflicting reports surrounding diplomacy, with US officials maintaining that talks are scheduled to take place this week, while Iran denied that formal negotiations are planned. Some reports suggested discussions could instead continue through intermediaries. Treasuries were little changed overall, although the curve exhibited a modest flattening bias. Market attention now turns to Chair Warsh’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra Forum and Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has been brought forward ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.3% while Gold reversed some of Friday’s gains closing lower by 1.6%.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday and is now ahead by 10572 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.18% higher at a price of 7440.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher for a 0.59% gain at a price of 52,182.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.25% higher at a price of 29,724.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.04% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.29% higher at a price of 70,363.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.23% lower.
The Euro closed 0.35% higher at $1.1424.
The British Pound closed 0.38% higher at $1.3251.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.14% closing at $161.93.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.73%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.86%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.38%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.34% higher at $70.85 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.59% lower at $4024.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which rose 1.1% versus 0.0% expected. Also released was U.K. GDP which rose 0.6% as expected. Next, we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am and CPI at 10.00 pm. This is followed by U.S. House Price Index at 2.00 pm and Chicago PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed higher on Monday by 1.18%. For whatever reason, the 1-day VIX settled at 17.6 on Friday and then opened around 12 today. That collapse in implied volatility was the boost the market needed to get the Indexes moving higher. Aside from a brief pullback early in the session, when the Indexes gave back their initial gains, the rest of the day looked like steady volatility selling. With Fed Governor Kevin Warsh speaking on Wednesday afternoon and the June jobs report due on Thursday, I would expect implied volatility to move sharply higher into both events. If that happens, it will probably be difficult for the market to sustain the momentum from yesterday’s rally. Meanwhile, as index implied volatility fell, single-stock implied volatility rose, with the VIXEQ climbing to 47.5 while the VIX Index declined to 17.6. That divergence pushed dispersion higher on the day and implied correlation lower. At 44.13, the Dispersion Index is already elevated. In recent years, it has only been higher during the COVID crash and the Tariff Tantrum. It tells us a great deal about the current state of the market. With equity indexes pushing higher, single-stock implied volatility rising, and dispersion continuing to climb, investors appear to be chasing an increasingly narrow group of stocks. That combination suggests the market has become increasingly frothy, with momentum rather than broad participation driving gains. Frustratingly, the S&P missed Monday’s 7345 buy level with a 7348 low print before surging over 90 Handles. This move higher continued overnight for a now 7448 short position. I will only add to this trade at 7474 with a now 7491 higher ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 7427. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1490 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my sell level unchanged at 101.60/102.30 with the same 103.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.10.
Russell 2000
The Russell traded in a narrow trading range over the past 24 hours. I am still short at a price of 3015 with a now 2970 higher T/P level. I will add to this trade at 3085 while leaving my 3155 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Monday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 10310/10380 with a higher 10235 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10440.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 52270-sell level before falling 300 points. This move lower saw my revised 52140 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The Dow has resistance from 52420/52720 where I will again be a seller with a higher 52955 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52140.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged on Monday, eventually closing higher by 2.25%. The rally continued overnight, trading the whole of my sell range for a now 29830 average short position. I will leave my 30005 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 29700. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still short the Bund from last week at a price of 127.35. I will add to this trade at 128.15 while leaving 128.85 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 126.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold at an average rate of 4068 with the same 3945 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold is trading heavy this morning. Just like the Euro above I have had this position too long. I will now lower my exit level on this position to 4085. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at a price of 57.40 with a now lower 59.70 T/P level. I will add to this position at 54.20 with the same 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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