A very quiet 2 days ahead as the US is closed tomorrow for the July 4th holiday and all futures markets are closing today at 6pm GMT. There are signs of discord in relation to the European Summit proposals which led to a lower Euro, higher Equities and lower Bond Yields everywhere except in Spain, which is a little higher from its one month low. Finland and the Netherlands have said they do not support the purchase of Secondary Periphery Debt by the ESRF/ESM. However this is not a deal breaker as agreement is only required by 85% of members.
The ISM No’s from the US were very weak yesterday, coming in below 50 thus confirming the weakness of the US economy. Today we have Factory Orders from the US and Bank Lending No’s from the UK.
Sept S&P 500
The S&P traded nicely between 1351 and 1361 all day. I went short at 1360 and took profit at 1352 – I am now flat. Today is a ‘half trading day’ in the US, making it harder to have a position but with the weak Economic No’s, it is difficult to be able to see a strong Payroll No on Friday. Today I will look to go short from 1362/1366 with a 1370 stop and with a target of 1353 to take profit.
Sept DAX
I sold the Dax yesterday at 6525 and I will leave my stop at 6570. I am not comfortable been short as the price action is Bullish but we are at the top of both the Bollonger Band and Williams Index. I only have a small position, thus the wider stop. I will look to take profit on any move back to 6450/6470.
Sept FTSE
Very unlucky yesterday as the FTSE just missed my 5540 buy level and we are now 80 points higher. We are very overbought as the market plays catch up with the other Indices after the Libor Fixing scandals. Today I will look to go short from 5630/5660 with a 5675 stop and I will look to take profit from 5580/5600.
Silver
Silver, like Crude, is at an interesting level. Last Thursday we tested the important December low at 26.10 and we are now back to the 28.00 area. I like Silver more than Gold and I will look to buy in small, given how volatile this contract is, from 27.50/27.80 with a stop at 27.30 which is yesterdays low.
Sept EURO
The Euro is difficult to call, as it fell yesterday and yet we have higher Equities and Commodities. I will still continue to stand aside unless we get a rally to the 1.2750/1.2800 where I would go short. If the Euro trades back to the 1.2530/1.2550 area I will buy in small with a 1.2495 stop.
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