U.S. Equity Markets reversed Friday’s late sell-off to close higher, led by the NASDAQ 100 which finished yesterday’s trading session with a gain of 1.71%. Vaccine news boosted markets. COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers are expected to produce roughly 132 million doses this month, almost triple the output of February, boosting the inoculation and economic outlooks. Later in the morning, AstraZeneca said that its vaccine was found to be 79% effective in U.S. trials, without any signs of risks from blood clots. The company added that it will apply for an emergency use authorisation (“EUA”) in the coming weeks. Housing data were mixed. Existing Home Sales fell and missed estimates, though the National Association of Realtors said that buyers were snapping up homes at record pace. European Markets closed higher. German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested the country’s coronavirus-related restrictions should remain in place for at least another four weeks, as infections rose once more. The European Union was said to be preparing to halt the export of AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines to the U.K. until the drug maker fulfils its regional commitment. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 47.2 million yesterday, with a daily average of 1.14 million doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.21% lower on little news, while Bitcoin closed 5% lower as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that cryptocurrencies are not a suitable store of value.
To mark my 2275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 68 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2712 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.70% higher at a price of 3940.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 103 points higher for a 0.31% gain at a price of 32,731.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.71% higher at a price of 13,086.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.61% lower at a price of 28,995.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1931.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at $1.3849.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 108.71 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 0.81%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 1.66%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.21% lower at $58.71 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.30% lower at $1,739.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK Jobless Claims which rose 86.5K versus – 20.K expected. At 12.30 pm we have the U.S Current Account and this is followed by New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and a speech from Fed Member Bullard at 2.00 pm. Finally, at 4.00 pm Fed Chairman Testifies before Congress.
June S&P 500
My June S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my sell range for a 3932 average short position (high 3943) before falling 25 Handles overnight. This move lower enabled me to cover this position at my 3927 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Last week, stocks recorded 1009 buying climaxes, which is the highest total in eleven years. A buying climax occurs when a stock makes a new 12-month high but closes the week with a loss. This behaviour is thought to represent distribution, indicating stocks are moving from strong hands to weak hands. A spike in the number of buying climaxes tends to coincide with market highs. I am still looking for a meaningful top this month. However, for me to turn bearish we need to break and close below 3885. Today I will raise my buy level to 3883/3898 with a ‘’Closing 3869 Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 3940/3955 where I will again be a seller with a ‘’Closing 3967 Stop’’.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1830/1.1880 with a higher 1.1785 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 92.20/92.70 with a tight 93.05 stop.
June DAX
I am still flat and today I will now raise my buy level slightly to 14425/14495 with a higher 14355 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
June FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the market higher, leaving my 6530/6580 buy level unchanged with the same 6535 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6615.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market fell shy of my 32380 buy level with a 32435 low print before rallying to an afternoon high at 32810. As I go to press we are trading lower at 32620. I will now raise my buy level to 32290/32450 with a higher 32155 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of Powell’s Testimony this afternoon I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
June NASDAQ
Yesterday afternoon the NASDAQ tested its 50 Day MA (13170) with a high of 13167 before selling off to sit at 13010 this morning. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 12820/12920 with a 12745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
June BUND
I am still flat. The Bund followed U.S Treasuries higher as expected as yet again the Daily Sentiment Indicator proves to be a reliable signal. It looks like we could well see a move out of equities into bonds given the attractive 1.66% yield for 10-Year Treasuries. I will now raise my Bund buy level to 170.90/171.50 with a higher 170.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1708/1719 with a tight 1699 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded sideways for most of yesterday before a late rally saw the market hit my revised 25.78 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has support from 24.60/25.20 where I will be a buyer with a 24.15 tight stop.
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