Markets have been tapping their fingers yesterday in the lead up to the two day Fed Meeting which starts this afternoon. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, with the US Dollar only somewhat softer again while the US Treasury Curve sees Bond Yields 1-2 basis points higher for the trading session. There has been some re-emerging interest in oil after the softness last week, though even there after a nice early spike the oil market sold off into the close of the New York session. European Equities were stronger, with the EuroStoxx600 closing up 1.02% and the FTSE higher by 1.54%. The latter was supported by gains in major resource/mining stocks. Meanwhile US main board indices closed flat having opened higher.
Due to the number of members taking up my 2 year Euro 2500 rate for my Platinum Service in recent months, this will be the last month that I am offering this special price which will now rise to Euro 2750 on October 1. If anyone is still interested in this original deal which has been in situ since January, can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 85 points yesterday and is now ahead by 272 points for September, having made 1782 points in August and 1692 points in July. The previous three months saw gains of 2550, 1532 and 2175 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2000 points.
Housing and house prices have been getting some coverage over the past 24 hours. UK Rightmove house prices rebounded in September, up 0.7% after a 1.2% August decline. The UK press reporting again that first time buyers are being priced out of the market, with or without ”Brexit”.
China reported yesterday that property prices were also stronger, in August up 1.2% across the largest 70 cities, with 64 of the 70 cities reporting higher prices in the month, up from 51 in July. Beijing and Shanghai reported around 4% gains for the month. Completing the housing-related trifecta, US homebuilders reported good sales conditions in September, the NAHB Homebuilders Index up to a cycle high (with October 2015) of 65, up from 59 and 60 expected.
On the other commodity markets, Iron ore dipped another 0.5% to $55.68/t while coal prices continued their recent surge closing $1.00 higher to a lofty $189. Gold closed 0.5% higher at $1316 with LME Base Metals mixed, copper down 0.25% but nickel having a better session, up 4.37% clawing back most of last week’s 6.2% decline.
This morning on the economic front we have no data from either the Euro-Zone or the UK. On what is an extremely light day for economic releases, the only US data due is Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Finally the two-day FOMC Meeting starts this afternoon.
December S&P 500
The Cash S&P rallied strongly at the open yesterday afternoon trading to a 2153.60 high print which filled most of the original 2146/2156 ‘open Gap’ from last week. Subsequently the market sold off before having a small rally into the close. Despite all the US Indices closing flat the McClellan Oscillator improved from a negative 126 reading on Friday night to close at -62 last night. My S&P plan worked well with the S&P trading lower to my average buy level at 2130. As the Dow had also hit my buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit this position at 2132 ahead of a 2138.50 rebound high and I am still flat. The S&P has first support at 2125/2131 and today I will be a buyer in this area with a 2119 stop. The main support for the S&P is from 2088/2094 and if over the coming days we test this level I will be an aggressive buyer with a 2079 stop. I still do not want to be short the market ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Meting rate announcement and Fed Chair Yellen press conference.
EUR/USD
In the last few minutes the Euro hit my 1.1200 T/P level on my long 1.1185 position from last Friday and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro on any dip lower to 1.1145/1.1180 with a 1.1095 stop. As I do not expect the Fed to hike rates tomorrow, I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
No change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 96.25/96.55 with the same 96.85 stop.
December DAX
I am still flat the DAX which has rebounded strongly off its last Friday morning lows on the Deutsche Bank fine. Despite Deutsche falling another 2.5% yesterday the DAX has held in well, probably well supported by the weaker Euro. Today I will move my buy level higher to 10250/10310 with a 10195 stop. I will now raise my sell level in the DAX to 10460/10510 with the same 10550 tight stop.
December FTSE
The FTSE just missed my 6720 buy level after I posted yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 6700/6740 with a 6665 stop. The continued weakness of Sterling should help the FTSE and for this reason I do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I was already long the S&P last evening I waited to buy the Dow which I did at 18100. Subsequently the Dow had a nice rally higher to 10185 and this rally enabled me to cover this position at my revised 18150 T/P level and I am now flat. The improvement in the McClellan Oscillator is probably a factor for the higher Dow price this morning and with so much depending on the Fed I would expect the Dow to trade in a tight to higher range ahead of this announcement at 7.00 pm tomorrow. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 18060/18120 with a tight 18015 stop which is just below last Friday’s low print.
December BUND
No change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 164.50/164.80 with a 165.20 tight stop. My only interest in buying the Bund is on a dip lower to 163.10/163.40 with a 162.70 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
With Gold trading in such a narrow range over the past few weeks, the Daily Sentiment Index which was over 75% bullish has now collapsed to just 11% bulls. The huge change in sentiment could well set up the next advance for Gold especially if it can continue to hold its $1302 low from September 1. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 1302/1309 with a 1295 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Just like Gold above, the Daily Sentiment Index reading for Silver has fallen to 35% bulls. Although this is not as bullish as Gold it does give the possibility that the recent sell-off from the July high at 21.17 to the recent 18.45 low is just a correction within a larger uptrend. I am still flat Silver and today I will now raise my buy level to 18.95/19.25 with a 18.40 stop.
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