U.S. Indices closed mixed as there was still no breakthroughs on a stimulus agreement, though White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows met with House members over the weekend to try and revive stalled negotiations. There was also news on the vaccine front. Novavax’s (NVAX) Coronavirus-vaccine candidate began a Phase II trial, with plans to start late-stage trials in September. Homebuilder optimism hit an all-time high in August, in yet another strong sign for the housing market. The Empire Manufacturing Index missed estimates in August on weaker expectations for the next few months. The White House met with House Representatives over the weekend to try and restart the next round of stimulus talks. And Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could soon enact more support for its economy. The NASDAQ 100 closed 1% higher while the Dow again struggled, closing lower by 0.31%. European Indices closed higher by 0.3% to 0.8% with the FTSE leading the charge. France’s government was expected to impose quarantine restrictions on travellers from the U.K., after Britain imposed a quarantine on travellers from France last week. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz proposed an $11 billion support package aimed at extending job-preserving subsidies for businesses. Italy and Spain were said to be preparing to shut down nightclubs as the countries look to slow a resurgence of Coronavirus cases. Elsewhere, Gold surged 2.25%, helped by news over the weekend the Warren Buffet had bought shares in Gold Mining Giant, Barrick Gold, while Oil rose 2% on news that OPEC are meeting tomorrow to discuss the current production cut accord.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1642 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.27% higher at a price of 3382.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 86 points for a 0.31% loss to close at 27,845.
The NASDAQ rose 1.11%%, closing at 11,288.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.4%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.2% lower at 23,051.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.3%.
The Euro closed rose 0.3% to close at $1.1880.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at $1.3115.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.55% higher at 105.99 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed four basis points lower at 0.67%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell five basis points to -0.45%.
Britain’s 10-year yield also closed two basis points lower at 0.22%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.5%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 2% higher at $42.50 a barrel.
Gold rose 1.2% to close at $1,980.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits.
September S&P 500
Individual investors remain pessimistic about the market, and that keeps me optimistic about stocks in the near term. One gauge I like to follow is the American Association of Individual Investors (“AAII”) Weekly Sentiment Survey. This Survey I have written about many times over the past few months as I like to look at it from a contrarian point of view. When investors are overconfident about the market, that is when I am most scared. When they are super pessimistic, that makes me positive. More individuals have moved over the past couple of weeks into the bullish camp. But the data tell us they are still cautious. And the bears have a decided sentiment edge over the bulls. Bearish sentiment remains above its historical average for the 25th consecutive week and for the 27th time this year. Again, that dates back to late February/early March, when the COVID-19 pandemic was exploding everywhere. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before the February highs are broken and then we will see how the market behaves at the key 3400 resistance area. I will now raise my buy level to 3348/3363 with a 3336 higher stop. I will now raise my sell level slightly to 3397/3412 with the same 3421 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change as I am still a small seller from 1.1925/1.1975 with a now higher 1.2015 stop. I will raise my buy level slightly to 1.1780/1.1820 with a 1.1725 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 92.80 initial buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 93.05. I will also raise my stop to 92.35.
September DAX
The DAX traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is opening 0.4% lower and is trading at 12850 as I go to press. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 12670/12740 with a lower 12595 stop. I am reluctant to chase the market lower, especially with the NASDAQ again trading at new all-time highs. Therefore, I will leave my 13050/13150 sell level unchanged with the same 13225 stop.
September FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy level. With Cable trading above 1.31 this morning the FTSE will struggle to make further gains. I am not going to chase the FTSE higher and I will leave my 6025/5980 buy level unchanged with the same 5935 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Normal service resumed yesterday with the NASDAQ closing 1.2% higher while the Dow had a small sell-off into the close as the 28000 pivot point is proving to be formidable resistance. Given my interpretation of the Sentiment Survey as mentioned above in my S&P commentary I am reluctant to chase the Dow lower. I will continue to be a seller from 28120/28320 with the same 28405 stop. The Dow is selling off as I post this commentary and I will now lower my buy level slightly to 27450/27650 with a lower 27315 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 28010. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27790.
September NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ traded higher to my initial 11270 sell level we saw a small retracement and I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 11240 and I am still flat. Overnight the NASDAQ made a new all-time high at 11310 before having a small sell-off to sit at 11270 s I go to press. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 11330/11450 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 11545 wider stop. I will now raise my buy level to 10980/11080 with a higher 10895 stop.
September BUND
After the BUND traded higher to my initial 176.25 sell level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 176.20 and I am still flat. The Bund had fallen over 150 points over the past week which was enough for the Central Banks to step in and prevent Bond Yields from rising further. The Bund has support from 175.50/175.90 where I will be a buyer with a 174.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has now rallied over $150 off its 1840 low from last week. This move higher was helped by Warren Buffet buying a stake in Barrick Gold. Given the extent of last week’s sell-off I am reluctant to buy the market. Gold has resistance from 2018/2033 where I will be a small seller with a 2045 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver is trading 6% higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 26.00/26.70 with a higher 25.35 stop.
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