Shortly after I posted my Daily Commentary yesterday morning. Oil prices provided some fireworks after President Puitin announced his support to a protection freeze or even cut in oil output. Earlier in the session Brent and WTI were already trending higher on the back of optimistic comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister saying that a production freeze deal could be reached. However after news broke that Puitin supported the deal oil prices moved to a new one year high.
To mark my 1200th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 30 points yesterday and is now ahead by 425 points for October having made 1142 points in September. The previous three months saw gains of 1782, 1682 and 2550 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points.
Brent reached a high of $53.71 and WTI jumped to $51.58. However oil prices have peeled off a little bit in the last couple of hours of trading, however they still closed up by 2.6% (Brent) and 3.5% (WTI) on the day. Equity markets have ended yesterday in positive territory with energy stocks leading the way, and in what was a broadly stronger trading session for the US Dollar, both the CAD and AUD have outperformed.
Both currencies have benefited from the move higher in oil. The CAD has gained just under 1% against the US Dollar dragging the USD/CAD down to an overnight low of 1.3140 while the AUD is back above 0.76. Somewhat surprising, given its links with oil, the NOK has underperformed by closing down 0.45%.
So barring two G10 exceptions above, the US Dollar has performed against most other currencies. The US Dollar is stronger following the US Presidential debate and although Donald Trump’s performance in the second debate was an improvement from the first, the damage from the lewd video over the weekend looks almost irreversible. Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives has distanced himself from Trump announcing that he will spend the next month focusing entirely on protecting the Republican’s Congressional majorities. Ryan has not withdrawn his support for Trump, however the announcement suggest the Republican Leadership is moving towards a damage limitation strategy and potentially giving up on winning the Presidency following the decline in Donald Trump’s popularity.
The US Dollar appears to be benefiting from the perception that a Clinton win will open the way for a December Rate hike. Notably too, over the past 36 hours, the Mexican Peso, the currency markets bellwether of the US Election, has gained over 2%.
In Bonds, UK Gilts have led the move higher in Europe and while the US Treasury Market was closed for the Columbus Day Holiday, US Bond Futures have also drifted lower as oil prices move higher through yesterday.
This morning on the economic front we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey Current Situation/Expectations at 10.00 am. This is followed by the US NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11.00 am. Finally we have the Labour Market Conditions Index Change at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
Once again a big opening surge in the stock market was met with … a yawn. The S&P gaped higher at yesterday’s open before having a small sell-off in the last hour of trading, only to firm into the Chicago close. Yesterday’s move higher saw the S&P hit my average sell level at 2161 with a 2164 high print. As I wanted to be flat overnight I emailed my Platinum Members to exit this position for a small gain at 2158 and I am still flat. Today I will again look to sell the S&P on any move higher to its next resistance at 2168/2174 with a 2179 tight stop. My only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 2130/2136 with a 2124 stop. With the US Banks back open today after closing for the Columbus Day Holiday I would expect volatility to pickup.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.1155 buy level in this trading. I am still long and I will leave my stop unchanged at 1.1095.
December Dollar Index
As I am already long the Euro, I will now raise my sell level ij the Dollar to 97.35/97.70 with a 98.10 stop. The 97.50/98.00 is strong resistance, however a break and close over 98.00 will be at least short-term bullish. The next resistance is the December 2015 high at 100.50.
December DAX
I am still flat the DAX which just missed my original sell level during yesterday’s regular’s trading session. Given the importance of today’s ZEW Survey, I am going to raise my sell level to 10740/10800 with a 10850 tight stop. I will also raise my buy level to 10430/10490 with a 10370 stop.
December FTSE
Unfortunately the FTSE again just missed my buy level shortly after the European Markets before again trending higher and I am still flat. The FTSE has very strong resistance above the market from 7135/7145 which is a nine year trend-line. Given how overbought the market is trading I will be a small seller on any rally higher to 7125/7155 with a 7180 tight stop. I will also raise my buy level to 6990/7020 with a 6960 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow which rallied over 180 points at the open yesterday only closed 89 points higher. I do not have the McClellan Oscillator Reading as I go to print as I will be very interested to see how much it improved from last Friday’s very negative reading when it comes out later this morning. Today I will raise my buy level to 18100/18175 with a 18045 stop. Despite my concerns with the Dow I do not want to be short the market at this time, especially as the FED will tomorrow release its Minutes from the September 21 FOMC Meeting.
December BUND
Late yesterday the Bund traded lower to my 163.40 buy level. I am still long and today I will now raise my stop slightly to 162.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold’s washout since September 22 should be over or nearly so especially as discussed at length yesterday into the very low Daily Sentiment Index Readings. I am still flat Gold and today I will raise my buy level slightly to 1243/1253 with a 1235 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long Silver at 17.85 with the same breakeven exit point. If I manage to exit at this price level, I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 17.40/17.70 with a 16.95 same stop.
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