U.S Equity Markets opened higher after Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn said he would be willing to fast-track approval of a COVID-19 vaccine before Phase III trials are complete if the rewards outweigh the risks. But former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb threw cold water on vaccine hopes, saying an approved vaccine was unlikely before the election in November. And the World Health Organisation warned that no country was out of the woods just yet. There were also positives, as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index beat estimates and returned to “Expansion” territory. The S&P had is first down-day since August 11, but only marginal at -0.23%. White House Aides said President Donald Trump would be willing to sign a $1.3 trillion Coronavirus-stimulus bill, indicating it may be moving closer to a deal with the Democrats. In a volatile trading session, the big mover was the VIX, surging 15% to close at 26.4. In Europe, Italy’s preliminary Consumer Price Index data for August were weaker than expected, falling versus July and signalling the rebound in the Euro-Zone’s third-largest economy may be slowing. Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said the economy is growing at a rate above 10% so far in the Third Quarter. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that no businesses will be left behind in the country’s next stimulus package. Mining and utilities companies rallied as copper prices continued to march higher and Veolia Environment sought a stake in and possible merger with rival Suez. Overnight the Euro rose and is testing $1.20 as I go to press. The weak Dollar saw both Gold and Silver close higher. Elsewhere, Oil fell as energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico began to restart production after Hurricane Laura.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 195 points yesterday to close August with a gain of 2383 points, having made 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.23% lower at a price of 3500.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 223 points for a 0.78% loss to close at 28,430.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.96%, closing at a price of 12,110.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed flat at 23,138.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.1945.
The British Pound closed flat at $1.3355.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 105.62 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points lower at 0.70%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis point higher at -0.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed flat at 0.31%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 0.2%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 0.37% lower at $42.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at lower at $1,970.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9.00 am and UK Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and this is followed by U.S Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.
The ECB’s Lane and Fed’s Brainard are speaking at 5.00 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
September S&P 500
My latest 3517 short S&P position worked well with the S&P trading to an afternoon low at 3490, thus enabling me to cover this position at my 3502 T/P level and I am still flat. The spike higher in the VIX yesterday is a definite pointer to lower prices as we approach the traditionally weakest month for stocks of the year. We saw more panic buying in Apple yesterday as the stock closed over 3% higher after splitting, closing at $129.04. The S&P has support from 3465/3478 where I will be a buyer with a 3453 stop. We have strong resistance from 3520/3535 where I will be a seller with a 3547 stop.
EUR/USD
After the Euro traded higher to my initial 1.1960 sell level we saw a small 35 point sell-off and I used this move lower to cover this position at my revised 1.1945 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Euro, which is severely overbought, tested 1.20 before selling off small to sit at 1.1972 as I go to press. We have strong resistance from 1.2020/1.2070 where I will again be a seller with a 1.2115 stop. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 1.1810/1.1860 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1765 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar made new lows for the year overnight and as a result I am now long at a price of 91.80. I will lower my T/P level on this position to 92.05 with the same wider 91.05 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September DAX
Frustratingly the DAX just missed my initial 13150 sell level with a 13148 high print before falling to an afternoon low at 12900 and I am still flat. Today I will lower my sell level to 13110/13210 with a lower 13295 stop. The DAX has support from 12800/12900 where I will be a small buyer with a 12735 stop.
September FTSE
The FTSE got hit hard after the Futures Market re-opened overnight, trading to a low of 5855 before bouncing 100 points as I go to press. With Cable trading above 1.34, it is hard to see the FTSE making much further progress. The FTSE has support from 5820/5880 where I will be a buyer with a 5765 stop. Given how oversold the FTSE is trading I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded heavy with the market eventually hitting my 28430 buy level with a 28355 low print. As I wanted to be flat overnight, I covered this position at 28460. This morning the Dow is trading higher and if you are still long you may want to take you gain here above 28500. The Dow has strong support from 28050/28250 where I will be a buyer with a 27925 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
September NASDAQ
There is no stopping the move higher in the NASDAQ with the market hitting my initial 12190 sell level in the last few minutes. I will add to this trade at 12290 with the same 12425 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 12130 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
No Change as I am still a small buyer from 174.75/175.25 with the same 174.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
The renewed weakness in the Dollar sees Gold trading higher at 1990 this morning. I still do not trust the price movement in Gold given the volatility over the past few weeks. Gold has initial support from 1940/1955 where I will be a small buyer with a 1929 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my 27.10 buy level before rallying to trading at 28.70 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 27.50/28.10 with a 26.95 tight stop.
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