Equity Markets fell as investors took profits at the end the month, led by the Dow which closed lower by 0.90%. Over the course of November, vaccine optimism sent markets higher. The Dow was on track for its best month since 1987, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes were on track for their best month since the post-pandemic rebound in April. Given the performance, profit-taking was expected. Vaccine news continued to come out, with Moderna saying that it planned to apply for regulatory authorisation for its COVID-19 vaccine. And it said that final data showed the vaccine was 94.1% effective at preventing infection. Multiple economic data points missed estimates yesterday, with Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI failing expectations. Meanwhile European Indices closed lower after a volatile trading session. The European Union is said to be drawing up plans urging the U.S. to create a new global alliance to meet the growing challenge presented by China. British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said post-Brexit trade talks with the European Union are headed into a ‘very significant’ week as both sides look for compromise. A group of Ministers for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries failed to agree on extended production cuts beyond January during an informal meeting on Sunday. The Italian government approved a fourth stimulus package aimed at supporting small businesses, with $9.6 billion in cash handouts and tax delays. Elsewhere, President Elect Biden picked former Fed Chair Janet Yellen to be U.S Treasury Secretary. Oil closed 0.77% lower after OPEC failed to agree to extending production cuts, while Gold fell 0.45% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 274 points yesterday to finish November with a gain of 2025 points having made 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.46% lower at a price of 3621.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 271 points lower for a 0.91% loss at a price of 29,638.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 12,268.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.79% lower at a price of 26,433.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1935
The British pound rose 0.1% to close at $1.3327.
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 104.37 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to -0.57%.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose four basis points to 0.31%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 0.86%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 0.77% to $43.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.14% lower at $1,779.35 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone CPI. Finally, we have U.S Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm, while Fed Chair Powell Testifies to Congress on the Economy and Monetary Policy at the same time.
December S&P 500
The S&P sold off over 1% before rallying 30 Handles into the close and I am still flat. Optimism is at extreme levels as we approach the traditionally strong month of December. The S&P has short-term support from 3595/3610 where I will be a buyer with a 3578 wider stop. We have resistance at Sunday night’s 3650.75 high print and the November 9 all-time high at 3667. I will now raise my sell level to 3665/3682 with a 3701 ”Closing Stop”. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3623. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 3648.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.1995 sell level before selling off to my 1.1960 T/P level and I am now flat. I will again look to sell the Euro from 1.2010/1.2060 with a 1.2105 stop. I am not going to chase the Euro higher and I will leave my 1.1840/1.1880 buy level basically unchanged with the same 1.1815 tight stop.
December Dollar Index
As expected, I was stopped out of my latest 92.20 long position at 91.75 shortly after the Dollar Index opened. The Dollar made a low at 91.45 before rallying to close higher at 92.00 and I am still flat. Today I will be an aggressive buyer from 91.20/91670 with a 90.85 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
December DAX
Frustratingly, the DAX missed my initial 13440 sell level by one point before trading 140 points lower and I am still flat. I will not chase the DAX lower and instead I will raise my sell level to 13495/13575 with a higher13665 stop.
December FTSE
My 6400 short FTSE position worked well with the market opening at my 6360 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE closed near the low of the day at 6250 which is no surprise given how overvalued the FTSE is trading. Today I will be a seller from 6360/6420 with a 6475 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 6315.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market selling off to my 29640 buy level before rallying back above 29800. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my 29725 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again be a buyer from 29350/29550 with a 29195 stop. I do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 12110 buy level before rallying to my 12172 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ surged into the close and is currently trading at 12320 as I go to press. As long as the NASDAQ can hold yesterday’s low of 12085 I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be from 12180/12260 with a 12065 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12325.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded lower to my 1757 aggressive buy level before rallying to my too tight 1764 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1733/1749 with a 1719 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver made a low at 21.87 before rallying 80 points and I am still flat. We have support from 21.20/21.90 where I will be a buyer with a 20.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.35.
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