Most US sectors gained on Wednesday, with breadth strong, but the continued tech weakness weighed on indices, leaving SPX and NDX in the red. The AI trade continues to prove volatile in June, with the next catalyst being Micron earnings after the close. Major stock updates included Cerebras (CBRS) sinking 19% on expected declines in gross margins, Alphabet (GOOG) to replace Verizon in the Dow Jones, and OpenAI and Broadcom (AVGO) unveiling an LLM-optimised intelligence processor. A combination of tech risk off, lower energy prices, and Quarter-end rebalancing saw T-Notes rally across the curve with the US 10 year yield down to 4.406%. The unexpected decline in New Home Sales and a weaker US 5 year note auction sparked little reaction in the space. The decline in oil prices came as escalations were absent, and markets continue to observe oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz increase without interruption. WTI dipped beneath USD 70/bbl and Brent beneath USD 74/bbl. Axios reported Israel-Lebanon talks had no progress on the first day, while the Israeli Defense Minister said they will not withdraw from Southern Lebanon, even if the US asks them to do so. The EIA report saw a bigger-than-expected crude stock draw, surprise builds in gasoline and distillates, and cushing stocks reaching its lowest level since 2004. In FX, haven outperformance remained the theme, in particular the Dollar, which, despite the drop in yields, managed to rally further to highs of 101.80. Barclays FX quarter-end rebalancing sees strong USD selling against all majors. Elsewhere, precious metals remained correlated with risk-off trade and a firmer Dollar, with spot Gold back to November 2025 levels, trading around 3,980; silver hit lows of 55.62. New Home Sales for May tumbled 7.3% to 580k from 626k. New houses for sale were 496,000, +2.3% M/M, while new home supply was 10.3 months (vs. 9.3 months in April) and the median sale price was little changed at USD 424,900 (vs. USD 416,500 in April). Oxford Economics write that while new home sales were much weaker than expected, they think the pace of sales in May probably marks the bottom of what will be a noisy range over the next few months rather than the start of a more sustained decline. OxEco expect sales to improve later in the year based on our forecast for mortgage rates to move lower, although that improvement may be delayed by a more hawkish Fed. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by over 3% while Gold was also hit hard closing lower by 3.1%.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 605 points yesterday and is now ahead by 9572 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 7356.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher for a 0.35% gain at a price of 51,848.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 29,220.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.08% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 4.61% higher at a price of 72,366.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% higher.
The Euro closed 0.15% lower at $1.1358.
The British Pound closed 0.23% lower at $1.3168.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.15% closing at $161.75.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 7 basis points lower at 4.69%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.87%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.41%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.73% lower at $69.73 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.1% lower at $43995.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of the German GFK Survey which fell 29.7 versus -27.6 expected. Next, we have the ECB Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am and a speech from ECB Member Lane at 11.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, the PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Next, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm and a Seven-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members, Bowman, Williams and Goolsbee at 2.45 pm. 3.40 pm and 6.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks declined on the day, with the S&P 500 falling closing 0.1% lower. It was not a particularly large move, but the Index had been trading higher earlier in the session before giving back those gains and then some during the late afternoon. Implied volatility rose throughout the day ahead of Micron’s earnings after the close and Friday’s PCE report. The VIX1D finished around 20, a relatively elevated level that could provide a tailwind for the market today if we see the typical post-event volatility crush. Micron has been beaten up over the past two trading sessions, with the shares falling sharply on Tuesday and trading around $1,000 on Wednesday ahead of earnings. As a result, the risk/reward profile has shifted significantly since last Thursday. However, the call wall remains at $1,200, which could prove to be sticky. The results were far better than expected, and they may be strong enough to override the options positioning. Still, with the call wall at $1,200, the positive gamma positioning could create hedging flows that work against the stock at that level, and in the end, that may be all that matters. If the stock stalls or potentially reverses lower, the $1,200 region is where it is most likely to happen. TBD. Overnight, Micron has rallied over 18% leading to a dramatic rally in both the S&P and NDX Futures with the S&P trading over 50 Handles higher at 7412 as I go to post. The S&P did indeed test its 50-Day Moving Average before having this dramatic rebound as expected. I bought the S&P at a price of 7347 but as I was long the NDX (which was enough exposure) I exited this trade at my 7358 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7440/7465 where I will be a small seller with a 7483 tight ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a further move lower to 7295/7320 with a lower 7273 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7415. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7352. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.1460 with the same 1.1510 T/P level. I will also leave my 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. The 14-Day RSI close at an oversold 25 last night indicating that a rally should be close to starting. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar just missed Wednesday’s sell range and I am still flat. As I am long the Euro I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 101.95/102.75 with a 105.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.35.
Russell 2000
The Russell rallied to my 3015-sell level. I am still short with the same 2960 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 3085 while leaving my 3155 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE traded in a narrow range on Wednesday. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 10280/10350 with the same 10205 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10420.
Dow Rolling Contract
Incredibly the Dow came close to making a new all-time yesterday. This move higher saw the Dow hit my 52110-sell level before trading lower to my 51920 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has short-term resistance from 52250/52550 where I will again be a seller with a 52805 higher ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 51900.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 29050 average long position before surging on Micron earnings report. The NDX gapped higher on the re-open for an 29635 exit level and I am now flat. As I go to post the NDX is trading at a price of 29825 – 800 points higher that where the NDX was trading at 8.00 pm last night. Today, I will be a strong seller of the NDX from 30100/30300 with a lower 30505 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has support below from 28900/29100 where I will again be a buyer with the same 28705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29830. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29430.
December BUND
The Bund surged over the past two trading sessions. This move higher saw my sell level triggered for a now 127.35 short position. I will add to this trade at 128.15 while leaving 128.85 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold at an average rate of 4068 with the same 3945 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold is severely oversold and due a meaningful bounce. I will now lower my T/P level to 4115. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wrong! Wednesday’s further 6% fall. Driving the price of Silver below $60 saw the market stop me out of my 62.75 average long position at a price of 59.95. With the 14 Day RSI trading at 28, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy Silver again which we did at a price of 57.20. I will add to this position at 54.20 with a now lower 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level at 60.90 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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