The Australian Dollar had a big knee-jerk bounce after stronger then expected GDP but the rally ran out of steam as the AUD/USD approached 0.73 then was stunted further after the AFR’s RBA – watcher Alan Mitchell’s wrote an on line piece suggesting that despite the strong growth, a rate cut would still likely be warranted. And that trading yesterday set the tone for the AUD/USD overnight, and despite what has been a pretty languid US Dollar that has been edging a little lower still sees the AUD back trading at 0.7230 this morning. Commodity prices were quiet yesterday with oil trying to rally ahead of the very important OPEC Meeting this afternoon.
To mark my 1075th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 145 points yesterday on the first trading day for June. The previous three months saw gains of 1532,2175 and 2265 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service over 12 months ago it has averaged a Monthly gain of 2200 points.
The Final May Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI’s were left unrevised at 51.1, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 and 50.3 expected. That is one more hurdle crossed toward the Fed’s June/July meetings, though and mild enthusiasm from that report was dented by weaker than expected Construction Spending Report for April and the Atlanta GDPNow estimate for US Q2 GDP back to 2.5% from 2.9%, including from some of the detail of the ISM Report. The market continued to price in a still below 50% probability of a rate hike at the 15 June FOMC (now 22%) and an over 50% chance of a hike in July which is now at 53%. US 2 -Year Treasury Yields have closed 2bps higher at 0.90% while 10’s were virtually unchanged.
The Fed’s Beige Book was also released last evening and it did not reveal too much more that would sway the growth and inflation readings on the US. If anything it was a touch softer. The 12 Districts variously outlined a mixed growth performance across the US of mostly ‘modest’ or ‘moderate’ growth, though a few Districts reported flat or slowing activity. Tight labour markets were widely reported with modest wages growth and price pressures growing slightly.
This morning on the economic front we have UK Construction PMI at 9.30 am. At 12.30 pm we have the US Challenger Job Cuts. This is followed at 12.45 pm by the June ECB Meeting announcement. The ECB will be reviewing the OK growth performance and policy progress with its enhanced Monetary accommodation announced and now being rolled out. Next we have the US ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Following the ECB announcement we have the Dragi press conference and Initial Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally at 2.45 pm we have the ISM New York.
This afternoon we have the Fed’s Powell and Kaplan speaking on the US economy.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked very well yesterday as shortly after the US Markets opened the S&P traded lower to my average 2087.50 buy level with a 2083.75 low print before having a nice rally as expected back above 2100 which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 2093 T/P level and I am now flat. The reason that I covered this position too early was because I had too many ‘open’ positions on board at the time. Today I would expect the S&P to go on hold ahead of the US Payroll data tomorrow unless of course we get a shock announcement from the ECB or from Dragi at his subsequent press conference. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2084/2089 with a 2079 stop. Again if I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 2074 with a 2068 stop. Given the fact that we are at the start of a new month and the fact that we have the NFP tomorrow I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to rally off the 1.1097 low print made last Friday as yet again the Daily Bollinger Band and Williams Index show what a fantastic trading signal they both are. I am still flat the Euro and I am hoping that the Euro will sell-off following Dragi’s press conference as it will get a better level to go long. As usual when we have ECB day I will stay flat until we get this event out of the way and if the Euro subsequently sells off I will again look to buy the market from 1.1110/1.1140 with a 1.1075 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will lower my sell level slightly to 95.70/96.00 with a 96.30 tight stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 10170 buy level before having a nice 60 point rally which enabled me to cover this position at my 10200 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today just like the EUR/USD above I will stay flat the DAX until we get Dragi and the ECB out of the way. If the DAX sells off following these events I will look to buy the market from 10060/10110 with a 10020 stop. However if the DAX trades through my buy level following Dragi’s press conference I will be a more aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 9920/9970 with a 9865 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time especially as I would expect the S&P to rally ahead of the NFP announcement tomorrow.
June FTSE
Initially my long 6220 FTSE position did not work out as shortly after I posted yesterday morning I was stopped out of this trade at 6170. Subsequently I had said to be a more aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 6150 which the market obliged with a 6135 low print before having a nice rally over 6200 which enabled me to cover this position at my 6185 T/P level which worked out very nicely as this second position that I had on board was in much larger size. Today I will again look to buy the FTSE on any dip lower to 6140/6170 with a 6115 stop. Just like the other Indices I do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan also worked well yesterday. As I was already long the DAX, S&P and the FTSE I waited to buy the Dow to near the bottom of my buy range at 17670. Subsequently the Dow rallied over 100 points very quickly and this enabled me to cover this position at my revised 17735 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 17640/17700 with a 17590 stop.
June BUND
No change as I am still a small buyer in the Bund on any dip lower to 163.20/163.50 with a 162.90 stop which is just below the 100 Day Moving Average.
Gold Rolling Contract
Yesterday after the US markets opened Gold traded lower to my 1206 buy level. As I was already long Silver and the fact that I wanted to be flat ahead of the Beige Book release I unfortunately cut my long Gold position at 1207 which is frustrating when you see Gold trading at 1215 this morning. For any of my members who are still lucky enough to be long Gold I would take my profit here and go flat. Today I will again look to buy Gold on any dip lower to 1195/1203 with a 1189 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long Silver at 16.15 with the same 15.55 stop. Again if I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any subsequent dip lower to 15.00/15.40 with a 14.60 stop.
Recent Comments