U.S. Indices closed lower while Treasury Yields rose in response to further upside in oil prices in response to an Israeli attack on the South Pars gas facility, the largest in the world. Oil gave back some of its gains as the EU’s Kallas and the Iranian Foreign Minister spoke, but that swiftly pared as Qatar announced the Ras Laffan Industrial complex was attacked with extensive damage. Meanwhile, Israel targeted Iranian navy ships in the Caspian Sea. These reports took oil prices higher post-settlement, supporting the US Dollar, weighing on stocks and boosting yields. Also contributing to the moves was Fed Chair Powell. The Fed left rates on hold as expected in an 11-1 vote split, while dot plots were largely unchanged, with little reaction seen. However, alongside the aforementioned updates, Powell noted how the Fed will not look through energy-induced inflation lightly, while stating that rate hikes in the future were discussed, but caveated that it is not the base case of the vast majority of the Fed. The geopolitical escalations and hawkish-leaning Powell supported the Dollar, while stocks and bonds moved lower, all while oil accelerated with Brent breaching USD 110/barrel at pixel time. Elsewhere, US PPI data was hot, and the Bank of Canada left Interest Rates on hold as expected. Amid the stronger USD on the above themes, precious metals were weighed, with gold falling below USD $5000/oz to ~ USD 4,835 and silver to around USD 76/oz. The FOMC maintained rates at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to the forward-guidance sentence on considering “the extent and timing of additional adjustments” or to its commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation. On the vote, only Miran dissented in favour of lower rates. Some had expected him to be joined by Waller again, while others had suggested Bowman could also join the dissenters in calling for a rate cut. The March statement left the economic assessment broadly unchanged, except that “the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilisation” was replaced with “the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months”. However, “economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace”, “job gains have remained low”, and “inflation remains somewhat elevated” were unchanged. In its risk assessment, January’s reference that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” was retained, while March added that “the implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” Balance-sheet and implementation guidance were also unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference leaned hawkish, despite the SEP median dots remaining unchanged. His main concern was clearly inflation persistence rather than growth weakness. He repeatedly stressed the need to see further progress in goods disinflation, flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow. He also sounded wary of fresh upside inflation risks from tariffs, which he continues to see playing out by mid-year, as well as from oil and the Middle East. The key point was that energy can be looked through only if inflation expectations remain anchored, but it would not be looked through lightly. Powell said a number of officials had noted that short-term inflation expectations had risen, while long-term inflation expectations were “solid”, adding that the Fed was strongly committed to keeping inflation expectations anchored around target. On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive, suggesting the hurdle for cutting remained evidence-based rather than pre-emptive. He also pointed to a meaningful shift within the Committee towards fewer cuts and said a hike was discussed at the meeting but stressed that the “vast majority” did not see that as the base case. Finally, Powell said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed’s policy balance. Headline PPI rose 0.7% M/M, above the 0.3% forecast and matching the highest analyst estimate, accelerating from the prior 0.5%. This saw the Y/Y accelerate to 3.4% from the 2.9% prior and consensus, matching the highest analyst forecast. The core M/M rose 0.5%, cooling from the prior 0.8%, while the Y/Y rose 3.9%, accelerating from the 3.6% prior and above the 3.7% forecast. The super core (ex food, energy and trade), rose 0.5% M/M, also above the 0.3% forecast and prior, while the Y/Y rose 3.5%, above the 3.3% forecast and 3.4% prior. Within the report, the PCE components leaned slightly hotter than the January report, with portfolio management fees cooling, air passenger transport rising marginally, and physician care easing. Home health and hospice care, and outpatient and inpatient care accelerated. Oxford Economics highlight that the increase in food and energy prices pushed the headline to its highest level since February 2025, and there are upside risks ahead as the spike in oil prices means food and energy goods, along with transportation services, will likely see larger price increases in the next PPI report. Oxford Economics’ PCE tracking nowcast “points to a 0.4% rise in both headline and core prices. This will keep headline PCE inflation steady at 2.8% and help core inflation inch lower to 3.0% from 3.1% in January”. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat following another volatile trading session while Gold was hit hard, ending Wednesday’s session with a 2.5% fall.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 190 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4271 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.36% lower at a price of 6624.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 768 points lower for a 1.63% loss at a price of 46,225.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.23% lower at a price of 24,425.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.70% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.87% higher at a price of 55,239.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.49% higher.
The Euro closed 0.51% lower at $1.1478.
The British Pound closed 0.51% lower at $1.3288.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.48% closing at $159.73.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.68%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.94%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.23% lower at $95.99 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.39% lower at $4836.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment including Average Earnings at 7.00 am followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone Construction Output. Next, we have the Bank of England Rate Announcement at 12.00 pm followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 12.30 pm. At 1.15 pm we have the ECB Rate Decision followed by President Lagarde’s Press Conference at 1.45 pm. Finally, at 2.00 pm we have New Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished the day lower by more than 1.3% following a hotter-than-expected PPI report, surging oil prices, and a Fed that seems less likely to cut rates in 2026, even if Jay Powell is no longer chair. The 2-year rate seems to tell the story, rising by more than 10 bps on the day to close at 3.79%, the highest level since August. There is some resistance at 3.8% for the 2-year, but not much, so a run back to 4% seems entirely possible at this point. What is really more interesting to me is the 30-year, because it is knocking on the door of 5% again, rising by 4 bps on the day to close at 4.89%. If oil stays at these levels or moves higher, and inflation is indeed heading higher, then a move above 5%—perhaps even back to 5.1% or 5.2%—cannot be ruled out. Shifting back to the S&P 500, it made its lowest close since November at 6,624 on Wednesday. The 200-day moving average is a mere 9 Handles away, and it is setting up an interesting battleground for the market heading into OPEX expiration on Friday. A break of the 200-day moving average, with follow-through to lower levels, would certainly ring alarm bells for many. But for now, a break of the 200-day likely just means a test of the next support level at 6,520. Things do not get really interesting until we break 6,520. Also, at least through Friday, 6,500 appears to be the ‘’PUT WALL’’. Meanwhile, the next major flip level comes in at 6,570. I am still calibrating the longer-term trend level, so I do not have much confidence in it. But more importantly, systematic flows are not supportive of the market rising. But in the end, it is important to remember that all of this ties back to one thing: Oil. And at least for now, that trend remains higher. Until oil breaks, it seems to me that rates and the Dollar move higher, while risk assets move lower. Finally, Micron reported blowout results and blowout guidance, and perhaps more importantly, the stock is still trading down over 3%. Not horrible—at least not yet. More importantly, the stock is trading below $450. Basically, all of those calls at $450 and higher are going to become worthless very quickly today if the stock cannot rebound, and could start to get unloaded, which may, in turn, lead to market maker hedges getting unwound. Against this negative backdrop, the Fear & Greed Index closed lower at 18 which is the lowest close since last August. Trump cannot afford for oil prices to go higher as it will cripple the economy and ruin his chances in the Mid-Term Elections. Remember, Trump always chickens out as we have seen numerous times over the past year. I was lucky with my S&P call yesterday as shortly after my 6664-buy level was triggered the market rallied 20 Handles thus enabling me to exit this position at my revised 6683 T/P level and I am still flat. As I go to post the S&P is trading lower at 6609 which is 150 Handles below Wednesday morning’s 6759 high. Yet again the 6750 is proving to be formidable resistance. However, I have no interest in being short the S&P at these levels. The chances are we will see follow through to the downside if we get a confirmed break of the 200 Day Moving Average (6615). I will be an aggressive buyer from 6555/6585 with a wider 6529 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6628. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Just before the New York close the Euro traded lower to my 1.1450 buy level. I am still long with the same 1.1520 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1380 while leaving my 1.1315 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. As I am now long the Euro, I will raise my Dollar sell level to 100.60/101.30 with a higher 102.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.90.
Russell 2000
Shortly after the Futures Market re-opened the Russell traded lower to my 2470 buy level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2400 while leaving my 2345 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 2510.
FTSE 100
The FTSE traded in a wide range on Wednesday before finally trading lower to my buy range for a now 10210 long position. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 10110 while lower my ‘Closing Stop’ to 10035. I will also lower my T/P level to 10280. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wow! The Dow traded in a 1300 point range on Wednesday as the market revered aggressively to the downside from its morning high above 47300. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 46425 average long position. I will leave my 46095 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 46570 which is just below the 200 Day Moving Average. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
A late sell-off saw the NDX trade the whole of Wednesday’s buy range for a now 24425 average long position. To reduce risk, I will lower my T/P level to 24550 while leaving my 24195 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund got hit in the last hour of trading, hitting my buy level for a now 126.60 long position. Ahead of the ECB this afternoon I would expect some rebound in the Bund. I will now lower my T/P level to 127.05 while I will continue to look to add to this position at 125.90. Meanwhile, I will lower my ‘Closing Stop’ to 125.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
As I am now long Silver I will again lower my Gold buy level to 4600/4700 with a lower 4495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4840.
Silver Rolling Contract
I have been extremely patient in waiting for Silver to fall before buying. Wednesday’s 5% fall saw the market finally hit my 75.00 buy level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 72.50 while leaving my 70.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 77.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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