Mental preparations for another onslought of selling bonds and equities were put on the backburner with markets becalmed yesterday until the last hour of trading in the US when the stock market got hit again. The US Dollar gave back a little ground with the Bloomberg Spot DXY Index closing down just 0.1%. European equities eased slightly, down 0.09% while the US main board Indexes closed mixed as the Dow and S&P closed 0.18% and 0.06% lower respectively while the NASDAQ closed higher by 0.36% mainly due to the rise in Apple shares.
Due to the number of members taking up my 2 year Euro 2500 rate for my Platinum Service in recent months, this will be the last month that I am offering this special price which will now rise to Euro 2750 on October 1. If anyone is still interested in this original deal which has been in situ since January, you can email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 92 points yesterday and is now ahead by 24 points for September having made 1792 points in August and 1682 points in September. The previous three months saw gains of 2550, 1532 and 2175 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2000 points.
On the commodity front the biggest mover was oil with WTI closing down another 2.75% to $43.67 and Brent off 2.36% to $45.99. The oil market was expecting a weekly rise in crude inventories of 2.77mb to be reported by the EIA yesterday but a 0.559mb drawdown was reported. Tuesday’s report from the EIA of a weakening global demand outlook also weighed. US energy stocks underperformed on the S&P, down 1.15% as did USD/CAD somewhat that closed near session highs in New York, not withstanding another sizeable rise in Teranet/National Bank house prices, up 1.5% for a 11.4% rise for the year.
Maybe it was the continued softness in oil or maybe the market was taking a breather, but bonds managed to get some support after I posted yesterday morning. German 10y Bunds closed down 5bps at 0.02%, while US 10 Year Treasuries fell 3bps to 1.69%.
The UK Labour Market Report for July/August came and went without any market impact, employment still rising through the July Quarter, little change in Jobless numbers for August and an unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.9% for the three months to July. Sterling made minimal net gains for the session.
This morning on the economic front we have UK Retail Sales at 9.30 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone Trade Balance and CPI. At 12.00 pm we have the Bank of England Meeting where no change in interest rates or QE is expected but the market will be alert to any shifting of views. Next at 1.30 pm we have US Retail Sales, Current Account, the Philly Fed Survey, Empire Manufacturing, PPI and the Weekly Jobless Claims. This is some amount of data releases at the one time. Finally we have US Industrial Production and Business Inventories at 2.15 pm and 3.00 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a 7 Handle Discount to the S&P Cash Market. The S&P which had traded higher all day after I posted yesterday morning got hit in the last hour of trading with the Cash Market closing at 2125 and this was a new closing low since the sell-off that started at the August highs. Keep an eye on the McClellan Oscillator which improved slightly to close last night with a negative -180 reading. Remember a reading of -250/-300 will set up a more macro long position which should see a large rally in the US Stock market. The move lower in the S&P saw the market hit my average 2119.50 buy level for the September Contract overnight where the low so far is 2115 and as I have now rolled to the December Contract I cut this September position earlier this morning at 2122 and I am now flat. Today for the December Contract I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 2102/2109 with a 2095 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 2080/2090 with a 2074 stop. Despite the negative price action I do not want to be short the market ahead of the September Quarterly Expiration tomorrow or the FOMC Meeting next Wednesday.
EUR/USD
It is incredible how little volatility we are having in the Euro which has basically traded in a very narrow range for the past 18 months aside form the odd breakdown or spike higher. I am still flat the Euro and today I will now raise my buy level to 1.1170/1.1200 with a 1.1135 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
No change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 95.80/96.20 with the same 96.50 stop.
December DAX
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a 12 point discount to the cash market. Overnight my September plan worked well with the market trading below 10300 and this sell-off enabled me to buy the market at my 10320 buy level before the market had a nice rally this morning which has enabled me to cut this position at my revised 10365 T/P level and I am now flat. For today I will be a buyer in the December Contract on any dip lower to 10270/10325 with a 10215 stop. With the September Contract expiring tomorrow morning I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
December FTSE
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a 44 point discount to the cash market. Overnight the September FTSE traded lower to my 6645 average buy level before having a rally which has enabled me to cover this position at my 6662 T/P level as I am now concentrating on the December Contract as the September expires tomorrow morning. Today for the December Contract I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 6580/6610 with a 6545 stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow where my only interest in buying this market is still on a dip lower to 17850/17920 with a 17880 stop. As mentioned yesterday I will be an aggressive buyer in this area if the market obliges with a further sell-off.
December BUND
The Bund rallied straight after I posted yesterday morning and I am still flat. Today I will move my buy level higher to 162.45/162.85 with a 162.10 stop. My only interest in selling the Bund is on a rally higher to 164.50/165.00 with a 165.40 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1300/1308 with a 1293 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 18.35/18.75 with the same 17.95 stop which is just below the key 18.00/18.30 major support level.
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