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The US Dollar continued to gain momentum after the European markets opened last Friday and the Dollar move higher was helped by the better than expected US Retails Sales data which printed +1.3% versus +0.8% expected. The Core measure also came in very strong at +0.9 % after a weak previous few months. Helping the US Dollar’s rally was the much better than expected University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment which came in at 95.8 versus 89.0 expected which was the highest reading since last April. There is no doubt the higher employment gains over the past year is helping the consumer to feel better about themselves even though they are not rushing to Macy’s to spend their hard earned cash.
To mark my 1075th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes `1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 105 points on Friday and is now ahead by 714 points for April. Since I started this service last June it has made over 24,500 points.
Rather than the data bringing forward the expectations of an early US Fed Rate hike, a weak performance by US equities saw the probability of a the Fed Funds Rate been 25 basis points higher by December fall to 60% from 64% on Thursday. The Fed’s reaction function is still equity dependent rather than data dependent and this was show by the 0.85% fall in the S&P on Friday with all 10 S&P sectors closing in the red. The S&P also closed below its 50 Day Moving Average for the first time in two months.
The fall in equity markets helped the US 10 Year Treasury Bond to fall 10 bps to 1.7%
With most of Europe closed for Whit Monday we have no data due from the Euro-Zone today. At 1.30 pm we have the US New York Empire Manufacturing Index. This is followed at 3.00 pm by the HAHB Housing Index. Finally just before the New York close we have the TIC Flows at 9.00 pm.
June S&P 500
The S&P plan finally worked well with the S&P Futures market opening at my 2038 buy level last night before subsequently having a nice rally to 2049 which enabled me to cover this position at my 2044 T/P level and I am now flat. Friday could have been an even better day for the S&P if the market had not missed my 2064 sell level with a 2063.50 high print before spending the rest of the session trading lower. As I mentioned above the S&P has now close below its 50 Day Moving Average for the first time in two months and today I will now lower my sell level to 2052/2057 with a 2064 stop. My only interest in buying the market today is on a dip lower to 2030/2035 with a 2025 stop.
EUR/USD
Unfortunately I was stopped out of my long 1.1350 Euro position at 1.1295 shortly after the US Retail Sales data was released and I am still flat. Today I will now look to buy the Euro again on any dip lower to 1.1240/1.1280 with a 1.1205 stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
June Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well on Friday as the market traded higher to my 94.80 sell level before having a nice 40 point sell-off which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 94.65 T/P level as outlined earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today I will again look to go short on any rally higher to 94.75/95.05 with a 95.30 stop.
June DAX
It took a long time but finally after the DAX spiked higher after I posted on Friday with a 9985 high print which enabled me to go short at 9950. Very late in the New York session the DAX finally fell which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 9885 T/P level and I am now flat. With the German markets closed for the Whit Monday Holiday I am also going to stay flat until tomorrow.
June FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE and today I will now raise my buy level to 6020/6050 with a 5995 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just before the New York on Friday the Dow traded lower to my 17520 buy level. I am still long and today I will raise my stop slightly to 17470. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 17390/17450 with a 17340 stop.
June BUND
I am still flat the BUND and I am going to stay flat until Germany returns from its latest Bank Holiday tomorrow.
Gold Rolling Contract
with a I am still flat Gold and today I will raise my buy level to 1260/1267 with a 1253 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Finally overnight Silver had a nice run higher which enabled me to cover this position at my 17.25 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 16.80/17.10 with a 16.45 stop.
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