U.S. Equity Markets ended the week on a high note, closing the week at new all-time highs despite a weaker than expected Payroll Report. The S&P led the rally closing higher by 0.88%. The labour market continued to recover, but at a slower pace than previous months. In November, 245,000 jobs were added, less than the 460,000 jobs expected. But the Unemployment Rate continues to drop, now sitting at 6.9%. It is quickly approaching the 6% rate several of the more optimistic Federal Reserve governors have forecast we could see by year’s end. Stimulus hopes also continued to grow after talks restarted this week. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she saw negotiations gathering momentum in recent meetings. This was the latest expression of optimism from Congressional leaders this week. European Indices closed the week strong. European Central Bank officials were said to be in favour of a 12-month extension to their Asset Purchase Programme. British negotiators said post-Brexit trade talks with the European Union took a step backward after French diplomats complained too many concessions were being made by their side. Germany Factory Orders data for October were stronger than expected, while September’s numbers were revised higher, signalling Europe’s biggest economy is holding up. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci apologised for suggesting British Health Regulators may have rushed the approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.90% higher while Gold was mixed after the U.S Dollar reversed earlier losses.
To mark my 2200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 127 points on Friday and is now ahead by 182 points for December, having finished November with a gain of 2025 points, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.88% higher at a price of 3699.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points higher for a 0.83% gain at a price of 30,218.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.49% higher at a price of 12,528.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.76% lower at a price of 26,547.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.2119.
The British pound fell 0.2% to close at $1.3415.
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 104.12 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.56%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.35%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two three points higher at 0.95%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.90% to $45.02 a barrel.
Gold closed unchanged at $1,836.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which came in stronger than expected with a +3.2% print. At 8.30 am we have the UK Halifax House Price Index and this is followed at 9.30 am by the EU Sentix Investor Confidence. The only U.S data of notes is the Consumer Credit Change at 8.00 pm.
December S&P 500
Late on Friday I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their S&P sell level to a price of 3701. This level was hit after the Futures Market re-opened last night before we sold off to my 3689 T/P level this morning and I am now flat. Sentiment levels are near record highs as the S&P closed at a new all-time high while the Advance/decline Ratio was strong on Friday closing at 3.58:1. The Daily CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed on Thursday at .35. The last time the ratio closed lower was on April 14, 2010(.32). This was a week before a top in the market that led to a 15% decline over the following seven weeks. This is another example of bullish extremes that I am seeing everywhere. The S&P has resistance from 3704/3720 where I will be a seller with a 3731 stop. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 3640/3655 with a higher 3629 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and today I will now lower my sell level to 1.2170/1.2220 with a lower 1.2261 stop. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
No Change as I am still an aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 89.80/90.30 with the same 89.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 90.75.
December DAX
The stronger than expected Euro is preventing the DAX from trading to new highs despite the fact that the Economic Data has been stronger than expected over the past two weeks. The DAX has short-term support from 13080/13160 where I will be a small buyer with a 12995 stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 13360/13440 sell level unchanged with the same 13505 stop.
December FTSE
The FTSE traded higher to my second sell level at 6537 and I am now short at an average rate of 6502. Sterling is lower this morning on the impasse on the Brexit negotiations and this is supporting the FTSE despite the market being overbought. I will leave my stop unchanged at 6581 while raising my T/P level on this position to 6480.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow Closed at a new all-time high at 30218 on Friday. The Dow is severely overbought and has resistance from 30450/30650 where I will be a seller with a 30825 stop. I have to respect the fact that we closed over 30000 and today I will be a small buyer on any dip lower to 29750/29950 with a 29575 stop.
December NASDAQ
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 12350/12450 with a 12265 stop. As long as the NASDAQ does not break and close below 12200 I will continue to be a buyer on dips.
December BUND
As I did not want to hold my 175.03 short position over the Weekend, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 174.96 and I am now flat. This morning the Bund is trading slightly higher at 175.21. We have resistance from 175.55/175.95 where I will be a small seller with a 176.31 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a small buyer from 1780/1795 with the same 1769 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer from 23.10/23.70 with the same 22.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.05.
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