U.S. Equity Markets closed 2020 at all-time highs, led by the Dow and S&P which both gained 0.65%. Until a late flurry, it was a relatively quiet day heading into the New Year. But there were headlines on vaccines. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said he believes the U.S. will return to some sort of normal by next autumn. And Operation Warp Speed director Dr. Moncef Slaoui said that Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot COVID-19 vaccine could be approved in February, and would be a “game changer” for ending the pandemic. In terms of economic data, both initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims beat expectations. This is a good sign for the labour market, after Claims have risen in the past few weeks. Markets rose into the close on little news, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing the year at a new all-time highs. Meanwhile, European Indices closed lower. European Central Bank governing member Olli Rehn said that the central bank is closely monitoring the Euro’s rise against the US Dollar, indicating that it may move to weaken the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Germany’s people to remain disciplined in the fight against the Coronavirus, adding that the country’s restrictions will probably be extended beyond January 6. The U.K. government increased Coronavirus restrictions, putting 75% of its population under the strictest level. German, Italian, and many other European markets were closed for a holiday on Thursday. Elsewhere, Bitcoin exploded over the weekend, to a new all-time high of 34,600, while Gold closed 0.55% higher on little news.
To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 110 points this morning on the first trading day of January, having finished December with a gain of 2273 points, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 3756.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points higher for a 0.65% gain at a price of 30,606.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 12888.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.44% lower at a price of 27,444.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.2217.
The British Pound rose 1.3% to close at $1.3661.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 103.28 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.57%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.19%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower at 0.92%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.21% higher at $48.10 a barrel.
Gold closed unchanged at $1,874.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Also, at 9.30 am we have UK Money Supply and Consumer Credit. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence. Finally, we have U.S Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
March S&P 500
Last night the S&P Futures re-opened in my sell range, allowing me to go short at a price of 3752 before the market traded lower to my 3741 T/P level and I am now flat. Optimism and sentiment levels are now at extreme levels and are not sustainable without a meaningful correction first in my opinion. The S&P has short-term support from 3702/3719 where I will be a small buyer with a 3689 stop. With the S&P trading higher at 3763 as I go to press I will continue to sell the rallies with a tight stop. The S&P is on course to leave another ‘’Open Gap’’ and today my sell level will be from 3770/3788 with a 3801 wider and ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly, the Euro just missed my 1.2315 sell level with a 1.2309 high print before falling 100 points and I am still flat. Sentiment towards the Euro is near extreme levels, closing above 90% on Thursday. Op top of this the ECB will not be happy with the strength of the Euro against the Dollar at this time. I will now lower my sell level to 1.2295/1.2345 with a lower 1.2381 tight stop. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 1.2105/1.2155 with a lower 1.2065 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change as I am still long from last week at a price of 89.80. I will continue to add to this trade on any further dip lower to 89.30 with the same 88.75 stop. My T/P level will remain unchanged at 90.05 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March DAX
This morning the DAX is opening at new all-time highs, having risen over 800 points since the 13010 low before Christmas. The DAX has resistance from 13950/14050 where I will be a small seller with a tight 14121 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
March FTSE
The FTSE has reversed some of its big gains post- Christmas and I am still flat. The FTSE has resistance from 6580/6630 where I will be a seller with a 6671 stop. We have near-term support from 6410/6460 where I will be a small buyer with a 6365 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
This morning the Dow is trading at yet another new all-time high and I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 30880/31080 with a 31225 stop. Given how overbought the Dow is trading I no longer want to be a buyer of the market at this time.
March NASDAQ
No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally to 12990/13060 with the same 13125 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 12930.
March BUND
Bund Yields are opening lower this morning. The Bund has resistance from 178.40/178.80 where I will be a seller with a 179.25 stop. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Both Gold and Silver are opening higher this morning, taking their lead form the near 50% rally in Bitcoin over the Christmas Period. God has resistance from 1940/1955 where I will be a small seller with a 1968 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has rallied over 8% since the middle of last week and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support from 26.10/26.70. I will be a buyer in this area with a 25.75 tight stop.
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