US Indexes saw gains on Thursday, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 outperforming amid broad-based strength in semiconductors and memory names due to two bullish stories: 1) President Trump said Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its chips in America, and 2) Apple CEO Cook said it plans to raise prices due to the memory chip crunch. As expected, it meant Technology was the clear outperforming sector, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. Nonetheless, sectors were overall mixed, with Energy and Health the laggards. Energy saw 1.7% losses despite crude prices settling flattish. Middle East newsflow was actually fairly sparse, as participants await the formal signing of the US/Iran MoU on Friday in Geneva, which will bring its own headline risk. The Dollar continued on its ascent seen after the hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, to the detriment of all G10 FX peers, with the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen the underperformers. USD/JPY reached a peak of 161.81, with focus on 161.95 and the round 162 to the upside, as participants will be on intervention watch. On that footing, USD/JPY moved sharply lower from 161.80 to c. 160.90 with around 30 minutes left of cash trade on no headline driver. Precious metals saw weakness as spot silver underperformed its counterpart. Treasuries reversed some of Wednesday’s post-FOMC losses on Thursday. It was also Quadruple witching on Thursday, which likely accounts for some of the choppy trade, ahead of the US market holiday on Friday. Regarding US data, muted reactions were seen; Initial claims were little changed, continued claims rose above expectations, and the Philly Fed beat. With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, global stocks ended a strong week on a cautious note as the recent relief over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran gave way to a focus on the challenges of securing a lasting agreement. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was little changed, while Asian stocks retreated 0.4% from an all-time high. Markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were shut as well. Meanwhile in the UK, Gilts led a rise in European bond yields after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won a seat in Parliament, handing him a pathway to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for his job. Investors are debating whether a Burnham premiership might shift to a looser fiscal policy. In rates, the Pound outperformed most major currencies, while the Dollar held at its highest level since March. Bitcoin fell for a fourth consecutive day. Despite Friday’s hiccup, global markets are wrapped in a debt-funded AI euphoria: stocks are closing a pivotal week marked by the US-Iran interim deal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting and the early days of SpaceX as a public company. Stocks have shown unprecedented resilience, buoyed by the frenzy around artificial intelligence and the billions of debt dollars funding it on the assumption that cheaper Chinese alternatives will not be able to dethrone expensive, token-sucking US incumbents. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1% while Gold ended Friday with a 1.27% loss – although those losses have been mostly reversed overnight.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1640 points on Friday and is now ahead by 7807 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.08% higher at a price of 7500.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 72 points higher for a 0.14% gain at a price of 51,564.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.48% higher at a price of 30,406.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.16% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.58% higher at a price of 72,376.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.13% lower at $1.1473.
The British Pound closed 0.32% lower at $1.3236.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.28% closing at $161.29.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points higher at 4.84%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.98%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.46%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.91% higher at $76.54 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.27% lower at $4155.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have speeches from ECB President at 8.30 am and Fed Member Waller at 9.00 am. Next, we have Canadian CPI at 1.30 pm. The only other data of note Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The PCE report will be the key economic release this week and is expected to show headline PCE inflation rising by 0.5% in May, up from 0.4% in April, while the year-over-year rate is projected to increase to 4.0% from 3.8%. Core PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April, with the annual rate increasing to 3.4% from 3.3%. One area that deserves closer attention is Durable Goods inflation, which has quietly reaccelerated this year. Durable goods prices in the PCE report are now rising at roughly 3.4% year over year, with the six-month annualised rate running even hotter. While energy and gasoline prices tend to capture most of the headlines, the rebound in durable goods inflation has become a significant driver of core PCE and will be an important component to watch in this week’s report. Historically, Durable Goods prices have acted as a deflationary force within the economy. If that trend has truly shifted on a more permanent basis, it would represent a meaningful change in the inflation backdrop. In that scenario, the Fed’s current policy stance may not be restrictive enough to return inflation to its target. That could be part of the reason why, despite oil prices falling sharply last, Fed Funds Futures have not continued to move higher following the Fed meeting. December 2026 Fed Funds Futures remain above 4%, suggesting the market is still reluctant to price in a more aggressive easing cycle despite the recent decline in energy prices. Tighter Fed policy and higher interest rates would be bullish for the Dollar, and as a result, the Dollar has strengthened considerably this year. With the Dollar Index now breaking above resistance around 100.50, there appears to be scope for further gains in the months ahead. USD/JPY remains one of the most dangerously positioned currency pairs in the FX market, having now returned to its July 2024 high near 161.60. The key question is whether the pair can continue to move higher. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart shows very little meaningful resistance above the July 2024 highs. There is some resistance around 164, but beyond that, the next notable levels do not appear until roughly 181 and then above 200. In other words, once USD/JPY breaks through 161.60, the chart becomes remarkably thin. This is precisely the type of setup that should make Japanese government officials increasingly nervous. The higher the USD/JPY rises, the greater the risk of intervention, particularly given the speed at which the pair could advance once it moves into a zone with limited historical resistance. Finally, last week, reserve balances fell back below the $3 trillion level, driven by a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to around $950 billion following the June 15 tax date. The Treasury is targeting a TGA balance of about $900 billion by month-end, so reserves are likely to increase somewhat in the days ahead, but not by a meaningful amount. My S&P plan worked well as the market rallied to my 7502 sell level before trading lower to my 7470 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 7510/7535 with a higher 7553 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7485. The S&P has support below from 7370/7395 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7349 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7423. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro sold off to my second buy level at 1.1420 for a now 1.1460 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1510 while leaving my 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hot, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to Thursday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 99.60/100.30 with a higher 98.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.90.
Russell 2000
Overnight, the Russell hit my sell range for a now 2990 short position. I will add to this position at 3060 while leaving my 3115 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 2950. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Despite the ongoing political mess in the U.K. and higher Gilt Yields the FTSE has traded in narrow ranges since Thursday. The FTSE traded lower to my 10360-buy level. I am still long with a now lower 10420 T/P level. I will add to this position at 10280 while leaving my 10195 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Thursday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 51850/52150 with a lower 52405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 51540. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market rose to my 30350-sell level before trading lower to my 30170 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short again at a price of 30360 before overnight the NDX traded lower to my 30170 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX hit a low at 30025 overnight before rallying 400 points and is now close to all-time highs as my ‘Nothing Matters’ theme continues. Today, I will be a small seller from 30520/30720 with a higher 30905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 30290. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
The Bund sold off to my 126.30 T/P level on my latest 126.70 short position and I am now flat. The Bund has short-term support from 124.80/125.60 where I will be a buyer with a 124.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
My latest 4150 long Gold position worked well as overnight the market rallied to my revised 4220 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 4040/4140 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 3965 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4205.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest long 65.00 Silver position worked well as this morning the market rallied to my 66.60 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has strong support below from 62.00/65.00 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 67.30.
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