U.S. Indices saw further pressure on Friday as geopolitics continue to dominate, hitting risk sentiment. Sectors were more split with haven sectors (Utilities and Staples) outperforming alongside Energy, while Tech, Materials and Communications were the notable laggards. Oil prices saw further gains with Brent settling above USD 100/barrel for the second consecutive session despite more reports of Indian tankers sailing through the Hormuz. Aside from geopolitics, focus was on a plethora of US data. January PCE was primarily in line, aside from Core Y/Y, while the 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP was revised to show growth of just 0.7%, below the initial estimate of 1.4%. Durable Goods disappointed, while JOLTS offered a glimmer of hope, but analysts did highlight there were signs of AI disruption. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report saw a slight beat with mixed components and mixed inflation expectations. T-notes ultimately steepened, seemingly a function of profit taking after the flattening seen recently while data takes a step back from the limelight with focus on geopolitics and energy prices. In FX, the Dollar continued to outperform with Dollar Index rising back above 100 while the Japanese Yen pushed closer to 160 despite jawboning from officials overnight. Gold was pressured but remained above USD 5,000 while Bitcoin saw further gains. PCE: Headline M/M was in line with expectations at 0.3%, easing slightly from December’s 0.4%, while Y/Y came in at 2.8% (exp. 2.8%, prev. 2.9%). Core PCE M/M printed 0.4% (exp. & prev. 0.4%), while Y/Y topped Wall Street consensus at 3.1% (exp. & prev. 3.0%). Reminder, Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The Fed’s December median projection sees 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.5%, although an updated figure will be released on Wednesday at the next FOMC meeting. Attention will focus on the projections, although the ongoing Middle East conflict presents the potential for energy-led inflation. Fed officials have already indicated they expect any impact to be a one-off effect and not something that will materially feed into policy decisions at this stage. Looking at other recent inflation metrics, January US CPI was in line with expectations for core but slightly cooler for the headline, while January PPI came in much hotter than forecast. The February CPI was largely in line with expectations but had hot implications for the February PCE. On the Fed, the Committee remains split, albeit unevenly, between labour market and inflation risks. Governor Waller is among those more focused on the labour market, and this dataset is unlikely to materially alter his view. However, the hawks are concerned about elevated inflation. Further in the report, personal income M/M rose 0.4% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.3%), while personal spending increased 0.4% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%). The second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP saw a revision lower to just 0.7% growth, from the initially reported 1.4%, and falling from the 4.4% seen at the end of Q3. Real Consumer Spending rose 2%, below the 2.4% forecast and prelim. Regarding prices, headline PCE was at 2.9%, accelerating from Q3’s 2.8%, but unchanged from the preliminary, while the core rose to 3.1% from, revised up from the 2.7% preliminary and above the 3.0% forecast. Growth was led by increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The revision lower to 0.7% reflected downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Meanwhile, imports decreased less than previously estimated. Pantheon Macroeconomics”are pencilling-in a slowdown in real spending growth to 1½% in 2026, from 2.6% in 2025, but the outlook is fluid, given the volatility of energy prices.” The January JOLTS rose to 6.946 million from the prior 6.550 million, reversing the chunky drop from November to December. The Vacancy rate rose to 4.2% from 4.0%. Hires rose slightly from 5.272 million to 5.294 million, but the hire rate was unchanged at 3.30%. Quits fell to 3.137 million from 3.225 million, but the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0%. Summarising the data, Pantheon suggests demand for labour is still weak, with tentative signs of an AI impact. The University of Michigan Preliminary for March was more positive than expected as Consumer Sentiment fell less than expected to 55.5 (exp. 55.0) from 56.6. Current Conditions unexpectedly rose to 57.8 (exp. 55.2) from the prior 56.6. Consumer Expectations fell to 54.1, below the expected 54.7 (prev. 56.6). Inflation expectations both came in beneath forecasts, 1yr at 3.4% (exp. 3.9%, prev. 3.4%), 5yr at 3.2% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.3%). The report notes that interviews completed before the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains, as gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers. About half of the interviews were completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran. Oxford Economics says we expect consumer sentiment to continue to deteriorate as the war persists. Nonetheless, the firm expects consumption to continue to grow at a solid pace of 2.4% in 2026 despite sentiment around historical lows. Elsewhere, Oil closed Friday’s session higher by 1.6% while Gold was soft ending the day with a 0.6% fall.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 722 points on Friday and is now ahead by 3480 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.61% lower at a price of 6632.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 119 points lower for a 0.26% loss at a price of 46,558.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.62% lower at a price of 24,380.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.50% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.16% lower at a price of 53,819.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.61% higher.
The Euro closed 0.64% lower at $1.1438.
The British Pound closed 0.75% lower at $1.3245.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.19% closing at $159.61.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 14 basis points higher at 4.77%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.99%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.28%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.62% higher at $97.28 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.67% lower at $5046.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or UK. At 12.30 pm we have Canadian CPI and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index. This is followed by U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 1.15 pm and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed PCE at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished on Friday with a loss of 0.6% on a trading session that again witnessed plenty of two-way volatility. The S&P closed on support near 6,630, while the 200 Day Moving Average is just below Friday’s Chicago close at 6605. Ultimately the S&P has support all the way down to the 6,520 level — which aligns with the mid-September breakout and the November lows — could open the door to a move into the 6,200s or lower. That 6,520 level is very important in my opinion because of what it represents. It was the breakout and the gap fill back in mid-September, and it also represents the November lows. If we were to see a break of the 6,520 area, I think you could probably see the S&P drop all the way into the 6,200s — maybe even lower than that. But we will have to see how things play out. Right now, the environment is really right for a bigger drop in the S&P and this is why I am bullish. One of my favourite technical signals is the McClellan Oscillator. Both Thursday and Friday the MO closed at the same level at -242. Remember any negative reading between 240/300 usually generates a large rally withing a few days. The 14 -Day RSI closed at a near oversold 33 while the Fear & Greed Index closed at 20 which is a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear”. Interestingly, despite all three main US Indexes closing lower on Friday, the VIX had a small sell-off which is a positive divergence. I certainly do not want to be short against this backdrop. Yes, I agree that the S&P will probably test 6200 over time but I would not be surprised to see a rally back to the 6770/6800 resistance area first before the real sell-off begins. With Oil closing on Friday above its Daily Bollinger Band I certainly would not be a buyer here. Trump cannot afford Oil to keep rising as this will not be good for the Republican Party ahead of the November Mid-Term elections. However, Oil needs to break key support at 80 which I cannot see happening any time soon. This week will feature central bank meetings globally, including the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOE. With oil prices surging and inflation expectations rising, markets will be focused on the current path of monetary policy and the potential impact higher oil prices may have on these central banks. The BOJ is clearly in the most precarious position, especially given the outcome of the general election in February and the path it had already been following since the last meeting. Now, with oil trading near $100, the BOJ must tread carefully as USD/JPY approaches 160, a level that could be viewed as the point of no return. The USD/JPY has already moved above resistance at 159, but it still has further to go to reach the highs last seen in July 2024 which is at 161.85. Technically, once above the July 2024 highs, there is no further resistance in USD/JPY, and the yen could weaken significantly. Given how overbought the Dollar is trading at this time I am looking for a retracement and ‘’risk on’’ trade across the board. With the Fed Meeting on Wednesday history tells us not to be short ahead of the FOMC Statement. Wednesday’s 6715 long S&P position worked well as the market rallied to my 6741 T/P level before selling off to my next buy level as emailed to my Platinum Members at 6695. Subsequently, the S&P hit my 6719 T/P level. Late Friday, the S&P hit my next buy range for a 6635 average long position. I am still long with a wider 6595 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6668. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro continued to fall following Wednesday’s close below 1.1600. This move lower saw my buy level triggered for a now 1.1480 long position. I will add to this trade at 1.1410 while leaving my 1.1355 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1560. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar surged on Thursday/Friday, hitting my sell level for a now 100.00 short position. I will only add to this position on any further move higher to 100.70 with a now higher 101.15 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 99.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
My Russell plan worked well. The Russell traded lower to my 2480 buy level before rallying to my revised 2522 T/P level and I am now flat. The Russell closed lower on Friday at a price of 2470. We have strong support below from 2360/2430 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 2305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2490.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Thursday’s sell range before falling over 200 points. This move lower was driven by the continued spike in Gilt Yields where 10-year Gilts are now trading at 4.77% to be within touch distance of the key 5% threshold. The FTSE has strong support from 10050/10130 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 9985 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10220.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 46750-buy level before rallying to my revised 46930 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 45930/46230 with a lower 45695 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46580. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX got hit hard over the past two trading sessions. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 24525 average long position. I will leave my 24295 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 24740. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund is under pressure following the rise in 10-Year Yields to 3%. I am still long from last Wednesday at a price of 127.10. I will continue to look to add to this position at 126.40 while leaving my 125.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 127.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. Gold has strong support below from 4650/4750 where I will continue to be a strong buyer with the same 4545 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4920.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver fell 8% on Friday following Thursday’s 4% fall. I have been consistent in my view that Silver needs a further move lower to take out the weak longs before mounting a more sustainable rally. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 73.50/76.00 with the same 71.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 79.35.
Please Note: Due to the Saint Patricks’ Day Holiday tomorrow, my next Daily Commentary will be on Wednesday. Any of my calls that are not triggered today and are subsequently executed on Tuesday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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