U.S. Indexes closed the final trading session of the week amid global risk-on trade as Iran and the US appear closer than ever to a peace deal, although some points still need clarification before the two countries sign on the dotted line. Highlighting how close they may be, mediator Pakistan PM Sharif said he can confirm that a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalise the next steps, with source reports adding both the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Sectors were largely in the green with only Consumer Discretionary and Health marginally in the red as a lot of focus surrounded the SpaceX IPO, who closed at USD 161/share, against the IPO price of USD 135/share. The Dollar saw slight gains versus the G10 FX peers, albeit within contained ranges, as participants await a slew of central banks next week, including the Bank of England, Fed, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank. Treasuries were marginally lower across the curve, despite weakness in crude prices, as markets continued to digest developments surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement. On oil, benchmarks were lower by USD 3.50/bbl as participants await any weekend updates re. the peace deal. Precious metals were divergent, as Spot Gold was lower and Spot Silver eked out slight gains. The Preliminary University of Michigan for June impressed, as inflation expectations fell much more than anticipated, and the headline metrics beat. Sentiment rose to 48.9 from 44.8, above the expected 46.0 and outside the top end of the forecast range, as did both conditions and expectations. Conditions rose to 48.4 (exp. 46.2, prev. 45.8) and expectations encouragingly lifted to 49.3 (exp. 44.3, prev. 44.1). 1yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.8%), and the longer-term 5yr tumbled to 3.4% (exp. 3.8%, prev. 3.9%). Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu writes that lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets; however, views of the economy are still relatively dour. Attention now turns to this week’s FOMC decision. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but focus will centre on whether the Committee removes its easing bias from the statement. Markets will also closely watch Chair Warsh’s first press conference for further insight into his views and how policymakers are balancing resilient labour market conditions against inflation that remains above target. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 3.23% while Gold was flat. Overnight, it was finally announced that Iran and the U.S. agree framework to end war as Trump announced that the Straight of Hormuz will re-open. The Nikkei has led overnight gains, closing higher by a whopping 5% while Oil is lower by 5% as I go to post.
To mark my 3375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 3010 points last week and is now ahead by 4967 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.50% higher at a price of 7431.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 353 points higher for a 0.70% gain at a price of 51,202.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 29,635.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.88% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.3% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 4.99% higher at a price of 69,311.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.05% lower at $1.1564.
The British Pound closed 0.13% higher at $1.3405.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.05% closing at $160.23.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 7 basis points lower at 4.84%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 3.00%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.48%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.23% lower at $84.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.03% lower at $4219.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already had the release of German Wholesale Price Index which fell 0.6% versus +0.3% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production and the Trade Balance at 10.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm, followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
We received two very important pieces of information last week. First, the fact that the headline CPI could jump +0.5% in May at the same time that the Core Index came in light at +0.2% (MoM increase) is showing the Fed and the Bond Market that the spillover from the energy shock to the broad pricing system has been limited at best. Not to mention that core goods prices actually deflated −0.1% on the month, and there was barely a pulse when the total core index strips out the mismeasured shelter components. Second, there is also no spillover into wages, as real average weekly earnings fell −0.2% in May, having now contracted in each of the past three months — and dragging the YoY trend to negative −0.4% from +1.3% a year ago. As we have been saying time and again, this energy price shock hits the wall in the labor market with a contraction in real take-home pay, which then translates into negative prints on real consumer spending, which has already been slowing sharply of late. Since my last Daily Commentary on Tuesday the S&P has been volatile but my ‘Nothing Matters’ theme shows no sign of ending anytime soon as all dips have been aggressively bought. My S&P plan worked well last week. After the market hit my 7480-sell level the S&P subsequently fell 200 Handles. This initial move lower saw my 7452 T/P level triggered before the market hit my 7295-buy level, followed by a quick spike higher to my 7359 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again at an average price of 7255 before rallying to my 7319 T/P level and I am now flat. Just when it looked like the S&P would get it hard into Thursday’s close, President Trump announced (for the 39th time) that a deal with Iran was imminent helping the market to close at a price of 7431 on Friday. This week is data-heavy, with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday as the marquee event. The U.S. calendar leans hard into housing — the NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, and Pending Home Sales — alongside the May Retail Sales print that will test the thesis that real wage contraction is starting to bite consumer spending. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys bookend the week (NY Fed Empire on Monday, Philly Fed on Thursday), with Industrial Production and Import Prices on Tuesday rounding out the activity read. Canada delivers Housing Starts (Monday), Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), and Retail Sales (Friday). Last week’s move lower saw the whole of May’s 7257/7297 ‘Open Gap’ completely filled. The idea of buying any tag of this gap certainly worked well. We still have a monster of a Gap from April from 6620/6740 which is the one Gap that I am looking to be filled before the next monster rally occurs. However, this gap will take some time to fill as the Trump Administration will do everything in their power to keep markets from falling. This morning the S&P is trading above last week’s highs at a price of 7520 and is now less than 100 Handles from all-time highs. The S&P has resistance from 7535/7560 where I will be a small seller with a 7587 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 7350/7375 where I will again be a buyer with a 7327 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7487. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7407.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1520 long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1565 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro continues to trade in narrow daily ranges making it difficult to generate many points. The Euro has support below from 1.1440/1.1520 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1.1365 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1580. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 99.70 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 100.20 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 99.00 with the same 98.25 ‘Closing Stop’.
Russell 2000
My Russell plan worked well. The market traded higher to my second sell level at 2920 for a 2890 average short position before subsequently selling off to my 2810 T/P level and I am now flat. Friday’s rally saw the Russell close at a new all-time high above 2940. The Russell has resistance from 3020/3090 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 3145 higher ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2940.
FTSE 100
My FTSE plan worked well as the market sold off to my 10200 buy level before rallying to my 10295 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the FTSE again which I did at a price of 10130 before the market rallied to my 10210 T/P level and I am now flat. Lower Gilt Yields saw the FTSE surge on Friday, closing at a price above 10450. Today, I will be a small buyer from 10240/10320 with a higher 10155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10390. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 50280-buy level before rallying to my 50620 T/P level and I am now flat. Friday’s rally saw the Dow close within 350 points of its all-time high. The Dow has resistance from 51750/52050 where I will be a strong seller with a 52305 ‘Closing Stop’. The Dow has short-term support from 50150/50450 where I will again be a buyer with a 49895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 51370. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50790.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 28630 average long position before rallying to my revised 28815 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX surged on Friday, closing at a price of 29635 and is now less than 900 points from its all-time high. It is as if June’s historic 1100-point daily plunge did not occur. The NDX has short-term resistance from 30250/30450 where I will again be a seller with a 30605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29995. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund just missed my sell level before having a small sell-off into Friday’s close. Today, I will be a small seller from 126.60/127.40 with a higher 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 126.05.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold had a wild past few days trading range. Gold sold off to my second buy level at 4220 for a now 4270 average long position. On Thursday the RSI hit an extremely oversold 22 print. Overnight, Gold rallied to my revised 415 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has short-term support below from 4150/4250 where I will be a small buyer with a lower 4055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4340.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 63.35 average long position before rallying to my revised 64.90 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 63.50/66.50 with a higher 61.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 68.20. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments