U.S. Indexes closed the final trading session of the week amid global risk-on trade as Iran and the US appear closer than ever to a peace deal, although some points still need clarification before the two countries sign on the dotted line. Highlighting how close they may be, mediator Pakistan PM Sharif said he can confirm that a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalise the next steps, with source reports adding both the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Sectors were largely in the green with only Consumer Discretionary and Health marginally in the red as a lot of focus surrounded the SpaceX IPO, who closed at USD 161/share, against the IPO price of USD 135/share. The Dollar saw slight gains versus the G10 FX peers, albeit within contained ranges, as participants await a slew of central banks next week, including the Bank of England, Fed, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank. Treasuries were marginally lower across the curve, despite weakness in crude prices, as markets continued to digest developments surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement. On oil, benchmarks were lower by USD 3.50/bbl as participants await any weekend updates re. the peace deal. Precious metals were divergent, as Spot Gold was lower and Spot Silver eked out slight gains. The Preliminary University of Michigan for June impressed, as inflation expectations fell much more than anticipated, and the headline metrics beat. Sentiment rose to 48.9 from 44.8, above the expected 46.0 and outside the top end of the forecast range, as did both conditions and expectations. Conditions rose to 48.4 (exp. 46.2, prev. 45.8) and expectations encouragingly lifted to 49.3 (exp. 44.3, prev. 44.1). 1yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.8%), and the longer-term 5yr tumbled to 3.4% (exp. 3.8%, prev. 3.9%). Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu writes that lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets; however, views of the economy are still relatively dour. Attention now turns to this week’s FOMC decision. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but focus will centre on whether the Committee removes its easing bias from the statement. Markets will also closely watch Chair Warsh’s first press conference for further insight into his views and how policymakers are balancing resilient labour market conditions against inflation that remains above target. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 3.23% while Gold was flat. Overnight, it was finally announced that Iran and the U.S. agree framework to end war as Trump announced that the Straight of Hormuz will re-open. The Nikkei has led overnight gains, closing higher by a whopping 5% while Oil is lower by 5% as I go to post.
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